This is interesting that Biden is holding his lead in at least some of the early polls. Keep in mind that when Trump has seen his biggest gains in the polls it’s usually been because of one consistent factor.... Dems in the news and Trump out of the top headlines. With the news being all about Biden, Harris, and the DNC, Covid not covered as much, and Trump being in the back burner other than the post office debacle (unclear if low information voters ever know about this story), it’s actually pretty good news for Biden and Dems if he’s holding this high of a lead. Typically there is a post convention bump, but Biden was already up so much prior that just holding that range of a lead is a win.
I think for Texas this could backfire big time on Republicans. Are Abbott and Patrick are going to take the risk of closing polling in counties like Galveston, Tarrant, Brazoria, Denton, etc (the growing suburban areas) and put all their eggs in the basket of 65 and older solid R voters in rural areas applying for mail in voting or showing up to their polling place miles and miles from their homes? Texas is going to be won or lost in the suburbs if they don’t make mail in voting easy for THEIR voters. Making it hard or nearly impossible likely hurts them more than growing suburban areas that have motivated Dem voters. Texas is won typically by areas like Brenham, La Grange, Kilgore, etc. having older Republican voters mail in their ballots. Every night on election night what we see in the past is what looks like a very close race until the end when mail in ballots from those small towns start pouring in. Harris, Dallas, and Austin counties often get counted early in the night and make the race look like possible Dem win. I think Texas is in play much more than people think and Abbott and Patrick seem to be too concerned with getting good praise from Trump than they are about actually winning. If Suburban Dem voters show up like I think they will in person, it’ll be the most interesting state to cover in the election.
The U.S. Chamber of Commerce is supporting freshman Democrats... Turmoil consumes Chamber of Commerce as it backs Democrats The traditionally conservative group is planning to endorse a number of House Democrats for reelection, sparking dissension among members. https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/27/chamber-of-commerce-turmoil-402837
trump got early to roll through the republican candidate endorsement... this one was especially funny...
Lessee... a young woman who has overcome health issues to get nominated for a Nobel prize and Time Magazine Person of the Year. Or a murderer.
Now this is interesting and shows a split between Wall street and main street among Republicans. It's why I think the real story is a secret anti Trump vote.
This is why this strategy of attacking mail in votes is a strange tactic. In many elections the GOP has benefited more from mail in votes given their elderly and rural support. Even if Trump manages to squeeze by this could hurt down ballot GOP races. Given Trump is pretty much guaranteed to lose the popular vote in states where he might lose electorally but there are competitive Republican races those could be lost if elderly and rural voters don't vote because they believe that mail in ballots aren't going to be counted. This is another sign of how much Trump has taken over the party. He and his supporters are willing to risk harming the GOP for at best a questionable improvement in his race.
If by main street you mean populist Trump base I agree. Several of Trump's policies have been opposed by the business owners such as the Trade War. It's also pretty clear that the lack of clear leadership regarding COVID-19 is hurting the economy. Although it's interesting that that hasn't been reflected in the markets. It may be possible that there is a secrete anti-Trump vote but I don't think that is necessarily in the investor class. My own guess is it would likely be among wives or other family members in families that are very pro-Trump. The very suburban housewives that Trump keeps saying he's going to protect might just turn against him.
I actually think it’s a tell that the goal is no longer to win the election. They obviously think that they will lose and are more focused on what comes after with the ability to contest with some public support which will drive support from Senate Republicans. I also think he’s banking on getting a favorable ruling at the Supreme Court if he can contest through that system. Much of the transition of power is through the SCOTUS swearing in the next president and Trumps legal strategists know this. I think pretty much a given at this point Trump and the GOP are preparing for a contested election. I think the role of the media will be extremely important to cover this tactic as it should and avoid the normalization of it.
Chamber of commerce is more about local businesses and how that affects specific towns and cities more so than what is happening in the stock market so that's what I mean by main street and that's why I don't think of it as populist. These are upper middle, middle class Republicans who understand Trump is really not doing anything for them and is actually hurting there bottom line.
A trump favorite, the new face of the republican party... GOP candidate poses with rifle, says she’s targeting ‘socialist’ congresswomen https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...1da24c-eebc-11ea-b4bc-3a2098fc73d4_story.html
I believe there are a few things going on. First, I believe that the pandemic plays a part in this for Trump. He believes democrats and people that are paid hourly will not want to wait in long lines and risk COVID and those with no money will not risk missing time by getting sick. Second, I think it was an avenue that he knew the democrats would balk against, but gives him a bite in the apple to contest the election. Third, Trump isn't doing as well as he should with older voters. It seems a lot of older people don't want to die from COVID.
Those are good points but there are a lot of hourly workers in Trump's base and rural voters require more travel time to get to vote in person. I do agree that overall this is a strategy to call the election into doubt.
speaking of scary and disturbing https://news.yahoo.com/colorado-woman-assaulted-12-old-145439653.html
