Republicans, as in the rank & file Fox News watchers aren't really giving money to anybody - the Republican Superpacs are getting their money from a very small group of billionaires etc.
I don't think the usual dynamic regarding unemployment is going to drive this election like some think. Sure, it will affect some votes, but I don't think it is the one thing make or break number for Obama. For one, I think a lot of people still remember what he inherited. Second, as we (and by we, I mean mostly Repubs) intentionally develop hyper-partisanship, elections are less influenced by the vagaries of economics. People have shown a willingness to vote against their own best economic interest for the satisfaction of voting against "the other."
Well the way the repub candidates are calling him out, they've gone all in from day 1. You really can't hit Obama on anything else. If unemployment steadily decreases this year and all else remains the same (i.e. no war, no scandal, etc), he will win. The best the tea party did was help the repubs win the house and make the average republican look even more extremist. That was the social backlash to a black man being President and it ends there. Economics is what will drive the coming election.
Obama gains in NBC's battleground map. http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/02/24/10496527-first-thoughts-nbcs-new-battleground-map *** NBC’s new battleground map: Much has changed since we last ran our NBC presidential battleground map back in early November. (Has it REALLY been that long?) The economy and labor market have improved; President Obama’s approval numbers have risen after his debt-ceiling blues; and the Republican primary contest has turned into a knock-down, drag-out fight. And that explains why our Electoral College scorecard has gone from 196 D vs. 195 R (with 147 toss-up electoral votes) back in November, to 227 D vs. 197 R with (114 toss-up). The big changes: We’ve moved Michigan and Wisconsin from toss-up to Lean Dem, reflecting Obama’s improved strength in both states; we’ve moved New Hampshire from Lean GOP to Toss-up; and we’ve moved Iowa from Toss-up to Lean GOP. The map and the changes on it are based on the public and private polling we’ve seen, as well as our conversations with operatives studying the battlegrounds. Again, we do not make our judgments SOLELY on public polling or based on poll averages. Solid Dem (no chance at flip): DC, DE, HI, ME (3 EVs) MD, MA, NY, RI, VT (70 electoral votes) Likely Dem (takes a landslide to flip): CA, CT, IL, ME, WA (94) Lean Dem: ME (1 EV) MN, NJ, NM, OR, MI, WI (63) Toss-up: CO, FL, NV, NM, NC, OH, PA, VA, NH (114) Lean GOP: AZ, GA, IA, MO, (43) Likely GOP (takes a landslide to flip): AL, AR, IN, LA, MS, MT, NE (1 EV), ND, SC, SD, TX (97) Solid GOP (no chance at flip): AK, ID, KS, KY, NE (4 EVs) OK, TN, UT, WV, WY (57) (Editor's Note: We accidentally put New Mexico in toss-up when we intended to put it in Lean D; that brings it to 227 D, 197, 114 toss. And the post now reflects that.) *** Breaking down our moves: As we mentioned above, the moves of Wisconsin and Michigan are due to the president’s improved standing, but they also reflect the GOP’s struggles in both states and how Mitt Romney, in particular, appears to be unable to connect very well to Obama’s weakest swing voting group: working-class whites. And until Romney fixes that, those states may be unattainable. As for Iowa, Democratic operatives acknowledge the very LONG Republican campaign in Iowa may have taken a toll on the president. Remember, of all the primary states, it’s the one where candidates truly camped out. We saw a similar issue in New Hampshire, though that’s changed and it appears due to the Republican Party’s shift to the right on social issues during the campaign. By the way, you’ll notice we’ve split Maine. The new congressional map created the most Republican district in that state in quite some time. The president is still favored, but it won’t be a cakewalk.
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_...s-provide-mixed-news-to-obama-gop-contenders/ Santorum beats Obama in one poll. Loses to him by 11% in another poll. Given recent polling data, the first is likely outlier that sampled many more GOP voters than usual.
Monday, February 27, 2012 For the first time since late December 2011, Mitt Romney leads the president in a hypothetical 2012 matchup. Romney earns 45% of the vote, while the president attracts support from 43%. Romney holds a nine-point advantage among unaffiliated voters. For the first time ever, Texas Congressman Ron Paul also leads the president. In that matchup, 43% prefer Paul and 41% Obama. Ten percent (10%) would vote for some other option, a figure that includes 17% of Republicans. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...ministration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
We can all play this dumb game. Politico/George Washington University Battleground Poll released Monday indicates Obama topping former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney 53% to 43% in a hypothetical general election matchup, with the president leading former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania 53% to 42%. http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.co...-double-digit-leads-over-romney-and-santorum/
My sister gave me this book for Christmas, and it's been my bathroom reader for a while now. The Rasmussens play a big part, obviously, and I gained a lot of respect for them. That's not a statement on Scott's poll quality, just him as a person.
