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Just remember guys the only polls that matter are on November 4. Please, please, please don't get to cocky with this information.
An ARG poll on 9/16 had it 57-36 McCain. A Rasmussen poll on 9/29 had it 52-43 McCain. Electoral-vote.com considers anything less than a 10 point difference a weak state. The Rasmussen poll on 9/21 (which they didn't use) had it 54-44 McCain. So that's really more of an indication of the difference between the 2 polls rather than Texas actually becoming 10 points less red. FWIW, fivethirtyeight.com projects McCain winning Texas by 9.3 points with a margin of error of 8.3.
Agreed - until we get to about two weeks before election day, this is all highly movable. Everyone should keep in mind that just about 2 weeks ago, McCain was in pretty good shape - and there are still 5 weeks until the election.
^ true but remember it's not 5 weeks till the election in some swing states, rather it's already election day due to early voting. It sort of puts a new spin on the whole "if the election were held today so-and-so would win" and can really put a premium on being a leader down the stretch. Probably won't be a terribly big deal this year but as voting becomes easier and more accessible (in spite of efforts by a certain party to prevent it) it will be more of a factor.
That's certainly true - banking those votes now will be a huge advantage, especially with Obama's ground game, in case of a dramatic shift. But I suspect the low-info voters most likely to swing those states are also the type that don't vote early as much - just my guess. I think the vast majority of the early voters are the ones that love their candidate anyway and are least likely to change their minds.
McCain concedes Michigan. It's harder for him now. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/02/AR2008100203664.html
Actually, Republican landslide victories in Texas is more due to the Bush factor. In the one year when a Bush has not been on the ticket, Dole only won the state by a fairly narrow margin. Then again, it was Dole vs. Clinton. Considering the state of affairs in the US right now, it's pretty amazing that McCain has such a huge lead. Texas is still solidly Republican.
After one full day of post-debate tracking, Obama has increased his lead in Gallup, Hotline and Research 2000 (+8, +6, +12 respectively). So much for the conservative theory that Palin struck a cord with the average person. They needed a game changer. Not only did they not get that, but it seems to be helping Obama even more.
Obama breaks 50% in national polls. • Gallup: Obama 50%, McCain 42%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 49%-42% Obama lead yesterday. • Rasmussen: Obama 51%, McCain 45%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 51%-44% Obama lead yesterday. • Hotline/Diageo: Obama 48%, McCain 41%, with a ±3.2% margin of error, compared to a 48%-42% Obama lead yesterday. • Research 2000: Obama 52, McCain 40%, with a ±3% margin of error, compared to a 51%-40% Obama lead yesterday.
Not sure what it means but I just noticed that three of the top fifteen NY Times best selling non-fiction books are Obama hit pieces. Eh, count me in as someone who doesn't have a lot of confidence in these polls.
All this means is that the people who don't like Obama REALLY don't like him. That's all. But you do have confidence in looking at NY Times best-sellers? Polls aren't everything, and is certainly biased. But they've generally had a good track record of success in terms of predicting voter sentiment. Certainly better than any other method out there.
Typical way those guys operate... write a book that appeals only to a narrow slice of America, print a lot of copies and sell it in bulk to conservative buyers. That way, it gets on the bestseller lists and makes it appear that Conservatism is ascendant. Look for them to be on the remainder shelf of your discount bookstore in a few months. There have been numerous stories about Regnery doing this quite often. The practice has become so ridiculous, the NYTimes has started putting "daggers" next to books that have large numbers of bulk sales. I'm not sure if you're looking at hardcover or paperback, but in paperback, the Palin book is a bulk sale bestseller while in hardback, the Dick Morris book is as well.
That's because conservative groups, churches etc buy them in bulk at discounts to inflate the numbers apparently.
I didn't see this posted anywhere else but the latest Rasmussen poll now even has MIssouri turning blue this year - Republicans may well get the landslide they have been asking for.
im curious how things will keep going. there seems no way obama can keep this up and things will tighten up at the end. we will see
I don't know what the polls will say. However because of Bradley effect and poll inaccuracy to begin with, I would say any state that doesn't have Obama up by at least 6 points is probably about even on election day.
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