And Gallup's final "estimate" is 55-44 Obama. That's basically their guess when you assign undecideds a candidate. http://www.gallup.com/poll/111703/Final-Presidential-Estimate-Obama-55-McCain-44.aspx BTW, It's Monday, November 3. The election is tomorrow. Who in the hell is still undecided? There was something Bill Maher said on Real Time on Friday. "The undecided, or as I like to call them, the r****ded . . . "
Well, I have done my part for Obama, my mom and my sister are voting for him (thanks to Palin it was not too difficult a sale), and i convince my dad not to for Mccain! He will not vote! So that's 2.5 votes!
Rememer when Trader was making a big deal about Obama campaigning in Iowa although it appears that Iowa is a solid blue state? Well McCain is in Tennessee campaigning today. I thought for sure Tennessee was a solid red state. Does McCain know something we don't? Is he falling behind there?
Interesting. If Obama somehow wins this big, he will get close to 400 EVs and will win the biggest Dem landslide since LBJ over Goldwater in 1964. I just don't see this happening.
Can people imagine the margin of victory if Obama was a white Protestant, some one like Bill Clinton? I could imagine it would easily be the largest victory margin in the US history.
I doubt we will ever see a blowout like Reagan's 59/41 landslide over Mondale again unless the same type of perfect storm happens again: (1) An incredibly popular incumbent who has the economy hitting stride at the right time and (2) an opposition ticket that many didn't take seriously. The one and only thing that saved the Dems that year was Reagan had very weak coattails.
The only thing I can think of is that they had a gap between appearances in Florida and Pennsylvania and wanted to squeeze in another event. Maybe they couldn't get anything scheduled in time in North Carolina or Virginia so they did this event in a small town in Tennessee which is 50 miles from North Carolina.
He's seriously doing a gig in Tennesee?? And to think some Republicans still harbor hope. I haven't seen a GOP campaign run worse than McCain's in decades. He's making Bob Dole look like a magician!
As hard-core a Democrat as you are, you sure aren't [giving] your candidate much credit. I think Dole's campaign was far weaker (and for that matter Bush Sr.'s), and Clinton far MORE polarizing in both races. McCain was a much more likable candidate than either Bush 41 in '92 or Dole in '96. Obama also has no Perot in this race to make it easier for him to win with a plurality (ala Clinton). I predict that if Obama wins it may not be by Reagan landslide numbers but at least with a clear mandate. I know certain members of this BBS want to believe that Obama is the second coming of Paul Robeson, but you'll have to excuse them. It requires that kind of cognitive dissonance to support McCain & Palin at this point
Obama, David Axelrod and company have run a brilliant campaign, but I stand by what I said about McCain's. It has been really, really, really awful! We can discuss what the GOP did wrong after the election, so I won't get into now, but you're right about one thing... I'm a hardcore Democrat!
tpm's final is below. Another slight nudge in favor of Obama. If McCain hadn't chosen Sarah Palin, I have no doubt he would have closed very hard the last week or so. But polls consistently showed she became a greater and greater drag on the ticket. People say the choice of V.P. rarely affects outcomes, but count me as one who thinks it would be too close to call if McCain had a legit running mate. The economic meltdown buried him, but Palin made it impossible for McCain to dig himself out enough to have a real chance. IMO, inertia wanted this election to be very close, but Palin was a game-changer. Here's our final daily composite of the six major national tracking polls. Many national polls have coalesced around a projected 52% popular-vote share for Barack Obama, and it shows in our composite: • Gallup: Obama 53%, McCain 42%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 52%-43% lead from yesterday. • Rasmussen: Obama 52%, McCain 46%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 51%-46% Obama lead from yesterday. • ABC/Washington Post: Obama 53%, McCain 44%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 54%-43% Obama lead yesterday • Hotline/Diageo: Obama 50%, McCain 45%, with a ±3.3% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday. • Research 2000: Obama 51%, McCain 45%, with a ±3% margin of error, compared to a 51%-44% Obama lead from yesterday. • Zogby: Obama 51%, McCain 44%, with a ±2.9% margin of error, compared to a 50%-44% Obama lead from yesterday. Adding these polls together and weighting them by the square roots of their sample sizes, Obama is ahead 51.9%-44.3%, a lead of 7.6 points, compared to the 51.5%-44.2% Obama lead from yesterday. Counting today, Obama's lead has increased by small amounts in the last five consecutive Composites. Most elections conclude with a tightening of the race, as the underdog picks up some final bit of steam. But this one seems to have been an exception -- McCain began closing the gap, but then Obama just pulled away all over again. One more important poll is due tomorrow. We'll be live-blogging it when it comes out.
Good lord it will finally be over. I hardly even care who wins anymore. This feels like the longest election process ever. Just get it over with so I can go back to normal TV and move on with everything.
First votes cast and counted in Dixville Knox, NH. Normally a Republican town, the 21 registered voters all voted and the results were Obama 15 - McCain 6. Official: Obama on pace to win 71% of the vote.
I've been a political junkie since May, but the last few weeks doesn't seem as interesting to me anymore.
I'm from Australia but I really hope Obama wins... although I am worried about his safety. Am I being paranoid saying that this President is the most likely to be assasinated by white supremacists..?
Well, I guess a black guy has a much higher chance to be shot by white supremacists than a white guy. There is always a chance for some idiot to try to kill a President, but security seems to have come a long way and I'm sure the secret service will be extra vigilent.
The jabbering flake known as Zogby has final numbers that indicate a blowout. This is the same guy who revealed and talked about a one-day anomaly on Friday that had McCain ahead 48/47. http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1633 Zogby's final: Obama by 11.4%, 54.1/42.7.
