True, but it is funny that most pundits ignore the fact that McCain needs 270 while Obama only needs 269... DD
And MO and GA. And now AZ, MT, ND may be in play. But Obama will win Colorado by double digits. I think McCain's strategy is to try to win PA, so then he can lose one of the others.
That's right. I think there's no way Obama wins GA. ZA, MT, and ND are more safely assumed McCain, though a surprise is possible. MO is a tossup, and I forgot to list that in the McCain column. I think there's no way McCain gets PA; even the razor-thin scenario I've listed is more likely than him winning PA, right? But you're probably right; if he doesn't get PA, it's pretty much over.
I agree - I think the PA strategy is really unlikely, but I think it's the only route that even gives him a sliver of hope. He's counting on latent racism and the like to cause Obama to underperform his polling there (as he did in the primary). On Georgia - I actually think Obama has better than a 50/50 chance to win there. The polls don't account for voter enthusiasm or ground operations, and I think Obama is going to run circles around McCain in both. At the end of the day, I think he outperforms his national polling by a couple of points. I hope I'm right.
Well, I have a very politically active buddy in NC. He says NC will definitely go Obama, and that Georgia will pull off a stunner due to voter enthusiasm there. An "untapped masses" kind of thing. We'll see!
I have a cousin working VERY CLOSE to the Obama campaign and he says "keep an eye out for NC and FL on election night". He has a good feeling about them. He also predicts Obama will sweep out West (NV, CO, NM).
The early voting in NC is just crazy supportive of Obama. The big open question there and nationally is whether the early voting is an indication that Obama supporters are going to come out in huge numbers above McCain on election day, or if they are just enthusastic and voting earlier than McCain voters.
No. IIRC, it's the House that males the call and the number of state delegations by party that are important.
Montana? really? Even reliably red Montana in play as Election Day looms George W. Bush won Montana by 20 points in his re-election victory four years ago. But it seems times have changed in the state. CNN's new Electoral College map, updated Sunday morning, moves Montana from "leaning John McCain" to "tossup." The move is partially based on the new CNN poll of polls in Montana, compiled Friday, which suggests that McCain has a 1-point lead over his Democratic rival, Barack Obama, 46 percent to 45 percent. Nine percent of voters are undecided. http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/11/02/cnn.electoral.map/index.html
For the 4th day in a row, tpm's composite slightly ticks Obama's way. • Gallup: Obama 52%, McCain 43%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 52%-42% lead from yesterday. • Rasmussen: Obama 51%, McCain 46%, with a ±2% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday. • ABC/Washington Post: Obama 54%, McCain 43%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 53%-44% Obama lead yesterday • Hotline/Diageo: Obama 50%, McCain 45%, with a ±3.3% margin of error, compared to a 51%-44% Obama lead from yesterday. • Research 2000: Obama 51%, McCain 44%, with a ±3% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday. • Zogby: Obama 50%, McCain 44%, with a ±2.9% margin of error, compared to a 49%-44% Obama lead from yesterday. Adding these polls together and weighting them by the square roots of their sample sizes, Obama is ahead 51.5%-44.2%, a lead of 7.3 points, compared to the 51.2%-44.1% Obama lead from yesterday. Counting today, Obama's lead has increased by small amounts in the last four consecutive Composites.
Correct. But it can only really happen one way and after the last eight years, I'd really like to get back to the Constitution.
Kind of interesting. The polls in yellow include cell phones in their samples. The ones in gray do not. Clearly, Obama does much better in the polls that include cell phones.
Zogby now has Obama ahead by 7.1%, which includes the fluke day where McCain was up 48/47. In Zogby's owns words, "Obama is Where He Needs To Be, McCain is Not" He conveniently doesn't break out the one-day numbers from Sunday. If you take Friday's McCain +1, Saturday's Obama +10, to get a 3-day average of Obama +7.1 would imply that Zogby's numbers on Sunday were Obama by >10. http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1629
More from Zogby: http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1628 Released: November 03, 2008 Reuters/Zogby Battleground 8-State Surveys: Obama Builds on Leads in OH & NV; Holds Margins in VA & PA UTICA, New York - Reuters/Zogby telephone surveys of eight battleground states show Democrat Barack Obama in a very strong position to be elected President. The key findings in these polls show expanded Obama margins in Ohio and Nevada and continued leads in Pennsylvania and Virginia.
I sure hope that's accurate. My thinking is that it's going to be far closer and I'd love to be wrong.
