Election 2008

What's a trip, at least to me, when looking at this map is that Obama could lose Pennsylvania and Ohio, and lose "Democratic leaning" Florida and North Carolina, and every "leaning McCain" state (even though some are very, very close), but if he wins Virginia, Colorado, and Nevada, he's at 270. In other words, the possibility of Obama still winning if McCain "runs the table" of McCain leaning states and "steals" Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania, are excellent. I don't think that will play out (I think Obama is going to win by a much larger electoral margin), but it shows how brilliant Dean's plan to put "every state in play," and Obama's decision to essentially do the same, was to giving Democrats several roads to the White House.

 

Good news, everyone. AZ is now listed as a "toss up" over at RCP because McCain's lead is below 5 points (4.4).

 

Arizona is all about humiliation. Obama is going to win and Arizona is all about rubbing it in.

 

If I were the Obama campaign, Biden would just spend every waking moment in Pennsyl. and Ohio.

That friends video is pretty slick. Should incorporate that stupid show with Ross and Rachel and the gang.

 

Having the GaffeMeister concentrate on OH and PA would be a dream come true for Republicans!

 

I totally agree - that's the demographic that he can have the most impact on. I didn't realize they were both in PA for a day last week (per an earlier post).

I agree. He's just trying to take every state he can now - things like the Dakotas, Montana, Arizona, etc.

 

Definitely. I think if there is any place where the Bradley Effect would be in play it's Pennsylvania and Ohio.

 

tpm's composite is virtually unchanged from yesterday. A 0.2% tick towards Obama.

• Gallup: Obama 52%, McCain 42%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 52%-43% lead from yesterday.

• Rasmussen: Obama 51%, McCain 46%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 51%-47% Obama lead from yesterday.

• ABC/Washington Post: Obama 53%, McCain 44%, with a ±2.5% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.

• Hotline/Diageo: Obama 51%, McCain 44%, with a ±3.3% margin of error, compared to a 48%-41% Obama lead from yesterday.

• Research 2000: Obama 51%, McCain 44%, with a ±3% margin of error, compared to a 51%-45% Obama lead yesterday.

• Zogby: Obama 49%, McCain 44%, with a ±2.9% margin of error, compared to a 50%-43% Obama lead from yesterday.

Adding these polls together and weighting them by the square roots of their sample sizes, Obama is ahead 51.2%-44.1%, a lead of 7.1 points, compared to the 51.0%-44.1% Obama lead from yesterday. Obama's lead also increased in yesterday's Composite, as well as in the one before that.

 

what gaffes has he made during this particular election?

if him saying that obama may be tested because he is a new president, like new presidents in the past. what is wrong with that?

obama will be prepared to do what is needed in my opinion.

 

That, asking a guy in a wheelchair to stand up, suggesting that Obama should have chosen Hillary to be VP instead of him, some comment about how Obama better not take away his guns.

Still, compared to Palin, Biden is a model of one who carefully chooses their words.

 

Biden makes a lot of Gaffes anyone can see that.....Obama needs to play prevent...McCain is 3 TDs down with 2 minutes left on the clock.....unless he goes Rosenfels he will win.

DD

 

i got ya. i didnt hear about the examples you gave.

 

This brings up something that has made me angry this campaign. When the Palin-mania hit, the Republican Party headquarters where my friend is chairman, and I sometimes help out, was flooded with money, offers for volunteerism, and especially requests for signs, shirts, and other campaign stuff. So I called the McCain For Texas campaign (which as best as I can figure is a woman with a Dallas cell phone) to request any stuff or directions from the campaign so I could put these people to work.

Answer: Well, really we're not concentrating on Texas, here's some numbers for Ohio and Pennsylvania that you can call, and whatever you feel like doing for the campaign is fine. Oh, and signs are $10 and can be ordered from the website. No cooperation whatsoever.

We got exactly 1 volunteer who was willing to leave Texas for Pennsylvania (Scranton, actually). For the rest, we turned it into a party-building exercise. Someone wrote a script for all Republican candidates and gave it to the volunteers, and they've had a phone-bank running for a while. We had our own McCain stuff made up, took donations, and actually made quite a bit of profit for the future.

I personally got over 30 volunteers signed up in my precinct (Republican by 3-4%) of about 3000 houses, and should be able to put in a big ground game for '10 and '12. McCain's benefit from all of this will be secondary.

I've heard similar complaints about campaign signs and stuff from my Democratic friends (they relied completely on the campaign, so it looks like the county is overwhelmingly Republican), but there's always someone in the Obama campaign that will give direction to willing volunteers.

 

^ why is colorado red on that map?

 

Wishful thinking.

 

Not giving Iowa and Virginia to Obama is nonsense, as is giving Colorado to McCain. But I suppose it makes this graphic more interesting if it shows neither candidate at 270.

 

I've been over and over the maps, and it seems like it has to break as follows for McCain.

Least likely for a surprise: Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico. (IMHO, rumors in Iowa accepted, and Nevada closeness accepted.)

So if you put those in the Obama column, you have to have McCain take VA, NC, FL, OH, IN and CO. Call me crazy, but that is possible. VA and CO seem like the toughest ones, but those other states are all very, very close.

In he runs that list, you get the 269-269 tie.

 

Which still gives Obama the Presidency, because of the Senate Majority, right?

DD