Are you talking about the New Orleans transplants that moved to Houston? I think it will definitely have an impact. Democrats usually get 90% of the black vote. I can see democrats winning most of the judicial races this year.
No he's not. For the last 20+ years since I've moved here, Houston has been known as a city with a high percentage of non-Texans. I'm one of them. It's because of industry. At the same time, large numbers of people from all over Louisiana have been here for decades. Now that I think about it, I guess this well-known fact about Houston is probably only well-known to those of us who live in Texas.
Today it tightened a bit. From tpm. • Gallup: Obama 52%, McCain 43%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 51%-44% Obama lead from yesterday. • Rasmussen: Obama 52%, McCain 44%, with a ±2% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday. • ABC/Washington Post: Obama 52%, McCain 45%, with a ±3% margin of error, compared to a 53%-44% Obama lead from yesterday. • Hotline/Diageo: Obama 50%, McCain 42%, with a ±3.3% margin of error, compared to a 50%-43% Obama lead from yesterday. • Research 2000: Obama 51%, McCain 40%, with a ±3% margin of error, compared to a 52%-40% Obama lead yesterday. • Zogby: Obama 49%, McCain 44%, with a ±2.9% margin of error, compared to a 51%-42% Obama lead from yesterday. Adding these polls together and weighting them by the square roots of their sample sizes, Obama is ahead 51.2%-43.1%, a lead of 8.1 points, compared to the 51.6%-42.8% Obama lead from yesterday.
If you measure the chances of the McCain campaign by the desperation displayed by the number of new threads attacking Obama from basso & T_J, I would have to say it's looking bleak.
More tightening. From tpm. • Gallup: Obama 53%, McCain 43%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 52%-43% Obama lead from yesterday. • Rasmussen: Obama 51%, McCain 46%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 52%-44% Obama lead from yesterday. • ABC/Washington Post: Obama 52%, McCain 45%, with a ±3% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday. • Hotline/Diageo: Obama 50%, McCain 42%, with a ±3.6% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday. • Research 2000: Obama 50%, McCain 42%, with a ±3% margin of error, compared to a 51%-40% Obama lead yesterday. • Zogby: Obama 50%, McCain 45%, with a ±2.9% margin of error, compared to a 49%-44% Obama lead from yesterday. Adding these polls together and weighting them by the square roots of their sample sizes, Obama is ahead 51.2%-44.0%, a lead of 7.2 points, compared to the 51.2%-43.1% Obama lead from yesterday.
Check out this chart... http://www.consumerismcommentary.com/2008/06/12/mccain-vs-obama-your-future-tax-bill/ .........................................MCCAIN.............OBAMA Income.............................Avg. tax bill........Avg. tax bill Over $2.9M.....................-$269,364.......+$701,885 $603K and up.....................-$45,361.......+$115,974 $227K-$603K.....................-$7,871..............+$12 $161K-$227K.....................-$4,380..............-$2,789 $112K-$161K.....................-$2,614..............-$2,204 $66K-$112K.........................-$1,009..............-$1,290 $38K-$66K............................-$319..............-$1,042 $19K-$38K............................-$113.....................-$892 Under $19K ............................-$19.....................-$567 You can also download a calculator at this website: http://taxprof.typepad.com/taxprof_blog/2008/02/mccain-obama-ta.html
Now that he's given up on CO, he pretty much has to have PA to win. Probably hopeless, but there's no other path for him.
I've been seeing rumors that he's rethinking that strategy and is now looking to try and make a push in CO and VA. Has anyone else heard this?
I think he has to have VA regardless. He can't lose both CO and VA - if he does, PA doesn't really matter. But it would be smart to go back after CO if it's remotely winnable. Counting on PA seems like a bad idea.
Wasn't McCain just in Colorado? The thing that is startling to me is how many solid red states are now in play. Obama is forcing McCain to run around like an octopus and put fingers in all the dikes..... And his money and time are short and he is spread to thin. I think Obama's campaign has been the most brilliantly run campaign I have ever seen. DD
It appears to me that if Obama takes either Ohio or Florida, it's over. If he takes both, it's gonna be a landslide. If he loses both, he is still likely to win.
Unless McCain can steal PA, if Obama wins any of the following, he wins: OH, FL, VA, NC, CO (would force a tie), IN, GA, MO He currently leads in VA, NC, and CO, and is considered to be in a tie in OH, FL, IN, and MO. He trails a bit in GA.
Can't believe there are so many Republican safe havens up for grabs this time around. I even saw that North Dakota and Georgia are open.
