Anybody that still thinks this election is close should note that both McCain and Palin are spending time in Iowa this weekend. Yes, Iowa. Everyone outside the McCain campaign is puzzled. http://www.desmoinesregister.com/article/20081025/NEWS09/810250332 October 25, 2008 McCain's visits to Iowa baffle GOP strategists By THOMAS BEAUMONT tbeaumont@dmreg.com Some Republican strategists say they are puzzled why their party's presidential nominee, John McCain, has made so many public appearances in Iowa in the past month. McCain and his running mate, Sarah Palin, plan to tag-team in the state this weekend. McCain is making his fourth campaign visit to Iowa in five weeks on Sunday, and Palin is making a two-city swing today. Some GOP observers with experience in Iowa and national politics are dismayed that the campaign is spending so much time here. Others say McCain must see something competitive for the ticket that few others do, in a state where polls show Democrat Barack Obama leading. "I am puzzled by the decision because it seems to me the most precious resource presidential and vice presidential candidates have is their time," said Joe Gaylord, former executive director of the Iowa Republican Party and top adviser to former House Speaker Newt Gingrich. "And their appearances in Iowa, while perhaps inspirational to the base, might be better spent in other states now. "I can't believe that they would spend any time in Iowa at all," Gaylord added. No opinion polls of likely voters in Iowa taken since Obama and McCain clinched their party nominations have shown McCain ahead. The Des Moines Register's Iowa Poll in September, taken in the days immediately following the Republican National Convention, showed Obama ahead by 12 percentage points. But McCain aides have long said that they see Iowa as more competitive than the public surveys show. They have pointed to the percentage of likely voters who say they could change their minds before Election Day as a reason to keep pressing in Iowa. The Register's September poll showed roughly a quarter of likely voters with a preference in the race could be persuaded to vote differently. "We've consistently done our polling, and it shows - I'm not saying we're ahead - we're within striking distance here," said Dave Roederer, McCain's Iowa campaign chairman. "Obviously, we believe that we still have an opportunity to win here." Palin plans to make her solo debut in Iowa with a midmorning rally in Sioux City West High School. Later, she is expected to headline a rally at Hy-Vee Hall in Des Moines. It would be Palin's second trip to Iowa since being named to the ticket last month. McCain is scheduled to speak at a midday rally Sunday at the University of Northern Iowa's West Gym, his fourth Iowa trip in a little more than five weeks. Gaylord said McCain also may be trying to emulate Bush's homestretch emphasis on Iowa in 2004. Bush made seven Iowa trips in the closing month of the campaign, including an election eve stop in GOP-rich western Iowa. National and Iowa GOP strategists have said McCain is being forced to defend states Bush carried in 2004, such as Iowa. On Friday, Obama led narrowly in polls of likely voters in key battleground states Ohio and Florida, where Bush edged Democrat John Kerry in 2004. Roederer, who was Bush's 2004 Iowa chairman, said the McCain campaign has made contact, primarily by telephone, with more voters in the state than did the president's re-election campaign. State Rep. Kraig Paulsen, a Hiawatha Republican, said he doesn't see why McCain is competing hard in Iowa, although he senses hope as he travels eastern Iowa assisting Statehouse candidates. "The anecdotals tell me it's in play. But when you look at the data and the polls, it's not," Paulsen said. "There's no question the numbers are down." Obama has not campaigned in Iowa since Aug. 25, and scrubbed plans to return Thursday so he could visit his ill grandmother in Hawaii. He has also spent less money on television advertising in Iowa than McCain, as of this month. But Obama has four times as many paid staffers working in Iowa as McCain does, and has 50 campaign offices throughout the state, compared with 16 for McCain. Obama's campaign manager, David Plouffe, said Friday that the campaign's Iowa organization is the strongest of any battleground state's, a product of his win in the leadoff nominating caucuses in January. "We think Iowa is the state where there is the biggest organizational disparity," Plouffe said. "We just think we've got a much stronger organization."
All Texas cities are like that. Especially Houston. Houston has more people from out of state and out of this country because of the industries in Houston. Austin is pretty liberal by Texas standards though. All Texas cities (except San Antonio) are liberal (I'm talking about Houston, Austin, and Dallas).
Ah, so there was time for massive numbers of Republicans to change party affiliation in advance. Got it. Had lunch with a silicon valley CEO last week (begging for money for my non-profit). He said for the first time in his life he changed his affiliation from Republican to Independent. He did this after attending a high-level dinner with Sarah Palin. I would quote him but he is very discrete and wouldn't want me to do that. I'll just say it was very funny to hear him describe her intellect up close and personal. Hard to believe someone in his income bracket, with his capital gains risk, will not be voting McCain.
Well, it is very close to a Rumsfeld line, and let's just say that this guy thinks: Palin doesn't (a) have a clue about her known unknowns or (b) that her unknown unknowns even exist. He was horrified. This "unblinking" quality gives her a confidence that she does not warrant, and that is dangerous, scary even.
Palin's newfound confidence after the Biden debate is something that shook me. Basically it proved she knew nothing at all about much of anything even after having some weeks to study up. Yet in her own mind, she spins that as a positive and thinks she came out smelling like a rose. There is a large separation from reality that is scary. If Republicans believe that true swing voters won't run and hide from that, they are crazy!
Exactly. I think normally TJ knows what's going on, and he's just playing around. This time I think TJ doesn't have any idea that the article he posted isn't talking about actual votes.
The Politico has a very interesting article posted right now. Palin allies report rising campaign tension excerpt -- Even as John McCain and Sarah Palin scramble to close the gap in the final days of the 2008 election, stirrings of a Palin insurgency are complicating the campaign's already-tense internal dynamics. Four Republicans close to Palin said she has decided increasingly to disregard the advice of the former Bush aides tasked to handle her, creating occasionally tense situations as she travels the country with them. Those Palin supporters, inside the campaign and out, said Palin blames her handlers for a botched rollout and a tarnished public image -- even as others in McCain's camp blame the pick of the relatively inexperienced Alaska governor, and her public performance, for McCain's decline. "She's lost confidence in most of the people on the plane," said a senior Republican who speaks to Palin, referring to her campaign jet. He said Palin had begun to "go rogue" in some of her public pronouncements and decisions. "I think she'd like to go more rogue," he said http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=33A79FEE-18FE-70B2-A89B82E0E4361B64
Ah, you beat me as usual. I was going to post the whole thing because it's worth reading. The bit you posted above doesn't do justice at all. McCain has never been the most organized guy in the world, but the level of dysfunction in his campaign proves he can't be president. The breakdown between his people and those who still believe in Palin is scary. I fully expect there to be a vicious civil war in the GOP after the election. In fact, the real question is how much of what's happening now will seep out publicly BEFORE the November 4th.
That's not what the polls say. 12% of Republicans are voting for Obama. 7% of Democrats are voting for McCain. And most of those are probably Republicans who voted in the Democratic primary. next
I know. That whole section about how McCain aides are starting the whisper campaign to distance themselves away from Palin and blame her for the catastrophe that is the McCain campaign is really devastating.
Check the latest AP poll, champ. We really need a forum to quarantine some of these weaker posters like this guy above...
Austin isn't "kinda liberal," lee... it's has been, and still is, the most liberal city in Texas. For decades now, certainly since the 1960's, when I started coming here. Moved to Austin in 1980, and while it has changed a LOT, it's still liberal and still different. Check some county maps from past presidential elections, the ones that are red or blue. Some years, Travis County was just about the only "blue" county in the state. Sure, there are parts of other cities that are liberal. I lived in very liberal parts of Houston for years before moving here and enjoyed it, but Austin remains the Liberal Capitol of our fair Texas.
Today's polls from tpm. A teeny weeny cumulative improvement for Obama. • Gallup: Obama 51%, McCain 44%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 51%-45% Obama lead yesterday. • Rasmussen: Obama 52%, McCain 44%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 52%-45% Obama lead from yesterday. • ABC/Washington Post: Obama 53%, McCain 44%, with a ±3% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday. • Hotline/Diageo: Obama 50%, McCain 43%, with a ±3.3% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday. • Research 2000: Obama 52%, McCain 40%, with a ±3% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday. • Zogby: Obama 51%, McCain 42%, with a ±2.9% margin of error, compared to a 51%-41% Obama lead yesterday. Adding these polls together and weighting them by the square roots of their sample sizes, Obama is ahead 51.6%-42.8%, a lead of 8.8 points, compared to the 51.6%-43.1% Obama lead from yesterday.
You should have been taken out to the slaughterhouse a long time ago. Cluck, cluck. When's the last time you even made a halfway successful arguement?
