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Election 2008

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by mc mark, Sep 17, 2008.

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  1. Major

    Major Member

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    You missed it because it's not there. It's just more garbage T_J is making up. Here are the actual numbers from Colorado:

    http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html

    Dem 38.6%
    Rep 37.9%
    No/Oth 23.5%

    What TJ forgets to mention (unsurprisingly) is that there are people in Colorado that aren't registered by party. And those voters favor Obama. According to the recent Rasmussen poll (one of the few that publicly provides breakdowns), the support levels are:

    http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub.../election_2008_colorado_presidential_election

    Obama has the support of 93% of Democrats while McCain is backed by 88% of Republicans. Unaffiliated voters favor Obama by 14 points.

    If you do the math, you get:

    Obama = 38.6%*93% + 37.9%*12% + 23.5%*57% = 53.8%
    McCain = 38.6%*7% + 37.9%*88% + 23.5%*43% = 46.2%

    So turnout right now fit exactly with what the polls show - if anything, the turnout is slightly better for Dems as the poll suggests Obama with a 5 pt lead using those % breakdowns by party.
     
  2. El_Conquistador

    El_Conquistador King of the D&D, The Legend, #1 Ranking

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    Major, you are using polling data to try to predict what the actual early voting looks like -- your math is based on Rasmussen polling data. I, on the other hand, am presenting the actual votes to you. And you are still arguing with those? Hilarious. I'm seeing Democrats supporting Obama at around the 80% margin, whereas Republicans are supporting McCain at around the 90% margin. My info is better than yours, friend. Bank on that.

    Again, for you to try to counter the actual results with Rasmussen's polling data, is just the height of ignorance. The height of ignorance.
     
  3. Major

    Major Member

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    No you're not looking at actual votes - you're presenting voter registration party ID numbers. Those voter registration numbers match up perfectly with the polling data that shows Obama up by 5-8 pts.

    If this is true, you need to be arrested and jailed for breaking into the Colorado voting centers and stealing election data. That is a felony offense.
     
  4. El_Conquistador

    El_Conquistador King of the D&D, The Legend, #1 Ranking

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    Major, once again -- you are countering VOTES with POLLING DATA. That is an intellectually bankrupt exercise. It's a joke, really.

    The moral of the story is that Republican turnout is higher than expected in CO. That's the bottom line. This is despite Obama's huge push for early votes as well as the historical tendency for Dems to get more early votes there. Now, I'm sure you will try to rebut this with Scott Rasmussen's polls, but friend, that's simply an invalid rebuttal. It's flat out wrong.
     
  5. Major

    Major Member

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    Unless you committed a felony and broke into Colorado voting offices, you seem to not understand the difference between a vote and a voter's party ID. This is not surprising since you also thought the primaries were winner-take-all and that post-debate polls by CNN and CBS were non-scientific. Your ignorance about elections is truly astounding.

    Actually, it's not. But nice try, though.
     
  6. mc mark

    mc mark Member

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    Lot of republicans voting democrat this year/

    just sayin
     
  7. GuerillaBlack

    GuerillaBlack Member

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    Well, the least you can do is put the number of electoral votes for each candidate...
     
  8. DaDakota

    DaDakota Balance wins
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    Obama 375 McCain 157 Ties 6
     
  9. leebigez

    leebigez Member

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    I really think if the clintons stop in texas, obama can win texas. Houston,SA, the entire valley regoin and over to laredo can give them the state. I really dnt understand why they don't come here.
     
  10. DaDakota

    DaDakota Balance wins
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    They don't need to...

    DD
     
  11. leebigez

    leebigez Member

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    I think barack would have a better chance of winning texas. U know DD, I wonder about austin as a whole. I lived there for 4 yrs and its very trendy. There are a lot of well to do people who are conservative, but austin is kinda liberal. Also, austin has a lot of implants from not only other parts of texas, but from other states with the technology centers and stuff like that. What's your read on austin.
     
  12. DaDakota

    DaDakota Balance wins
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    The dems always win Austin......just not the rural areas and Dallas and Houston etc.

    DD
     
  13. leebigez

    leebigez Member

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    DD- Is Iguana software still open in austin. Before I left, I almost got a job as a video game tester. They called me once I had moved back to lamarque.
     
  14. DaDakota

    DaDakota Balance wins
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    No, unfortunatly they went out of biz a few years ago.

    DD
     
  15. leebigez

    leebigez Member

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    Their claim to fame was NBA Jam.
     
  16. A_3PO

    A_3PO Member

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    Right now, FL, NC, OH, IN, MO & VA are borderline states that are competitive. The Clintons should spend their time helping Obama snag these states because they are well within reach and could go either way.

    The only reason they would come to Texas is to help Noreiga vs. Cornyn. That is, unless McCain's support somehow completely disintegrates and Obama pulls 15 points ahead in all of the states mentioned above. In that case, TX and 3-4 other states would simultaneously move into the borderline zone and become priorities for Obama and surrogates.

    IMO, Obama's lead can't grow any bigger than it is without more help from McCain and Palin. Quite frankly, I don't know what either one could do or say to dig themselves any deeper. We are at the point in the election that feelings are starting to harden and there are fewer undecided/swing voters up for grabs. It's pretty much a given the race will tighten from now on, how much is the question. McCain's chance of winning is barely north of zero.
     
  17. Harrisment

    Harrisment Member

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    Obama holds lead over McCain in Harris County

    By ALAN BERNSTEIN
    Copyright 2008 Houston Chronicle
    Oct. 25, 2008, 12:53AM

    http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/politics/6077400.html

    Harris County voters are on the verge of favoring a Democratic presidential candidate for the first time in 44 years — putting the area out of step with the rest of Texas, according to a Houston Chronicle poll.

    They gave Barack Obama the edge over Republican John McCain by 7 percentage points this week, with very few undecided or backing another contender.

    Voters also favored Democrat Rick Noriega of Houston against Republican Sen. John Cornyn by the same amount — with 13 percent undecided or committed to another candidate.

    The survey results were compiled by Zogby International as early voting got under way for the Nov. 4 election.

    All independent published polls of Texas voters overall show McCain, the Arizona senator, leading Obama, the Illinois senator, by solid margins. The candidates have focused their campaign efforts on other states on the assumption that McCain will capture Texas' electoral votes.

    Likewise, Cornyn has maintained a significant lead over Noriega in statewide surveys. Noriega is probably best known in Texas in his home county, where he is completing a term as a state legislator.

    The Harris County vote is not large enough to dominate the statewide vote. It has fewer than 2 million of the state's 13.3 million registered voters.

    No Democratic presidential candidate since President Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964 has won the majority of votes in Harris County, according to Chronicle files. In the last six decades, only Johnson and Harry Truman, in 1948, won the county vote as Democratic contenders for the White House.

    Harris County, with the state's largest population, is one of the most ethnically and socially diverse counties in Texas, and the strong growth of its Hispanic population has helped make its voters more receptive to Democratic candidates, according to experts. They said black and Hispanic voters, who generally favor the Democratic Party, will cast about 40 percent of county votes for the Nov. 4 election.

    Also, Houston's population is relatively young on a national scale, and the campaign nationwide is attracting many young and first-time voters, especially to the Obama campaign, according to a variety of analysts.

    Economy top issue
    Other than in the 30-49 age group, where Obama and McCain were in a statistical tie, Obama was ahead in every age category in the survey. The pattern was the same in the Noriega-Cornyn race.

    The county is poised to reverse the trend not only because of population shifts, pollster John Zogby said, but also because of the political mood of the nation, which leans toward Obama in several polls.

    From the Houston-area view, he said, "if the Democratic 'brand' hasn't been enhanced, the Republican 'brand' has certainly been damaged, state and nationwide" by economic woes, President Bush's unpopularity, the Iraq war aftermath and other factors.

    The Chronicle poll of 602 people, conducted Monday through Wednesday, has a margin of error of 4.1 percentage points.

    More than two-thirds of Harris County voters said the economy is the most important issue facing the U.S. The next most frequently mentioned issue was Iraq, at 11 percent.

    In February, well before the financial crisis hit the nation, 35 percent of Harris County voters in a Chronicle poll placed the economy at the top, followed by Iraq at 16 percent.

    This month's poll assumes the black and Hispanic populations each will contribute 20 percent of the countywide vote.

    Some local experts predict a higher turnout by blacks, partly because of invigoration by Obama's candidacy, and a lower turnout by Hispanics, who — while their number of registered voters keeps climbing — probably have never contributed at that numerical level to the countywide vote.

    A combined minority turnout above 40 percent could add to the advantage for Obama and Noriega.

    Ninety-three percent of blacks, 68 percent of Asian-Americans, 53 percent of Hispanics and 33 percent of non-Hispanic whites in the survey supported Obama. (Margins of error exceed 4.1 percentage points for surveys smaller than the 602 county residents surveyed).

    On both ends of spectrum
    Another possible key to the Democratic candidates' edge in Harris County is that voters said Democrats, by a 15 percentage point gap, have done a better job than Republicans in dealing with economic issues.

    Obama's advantage was also shown by the preferences of voters at opposite ends of the political spectrum.

    Among liberals, 96 percent said they back Obama. McCain drew support from 80 percent of local conservatives and 74 percent among those who call themselves very conservative.

    In the presidential and Senate races, the Democratic candidates were tied with their Republican foes among Harris County men and led among women, according to the poll. Noriega in fact led Cornyn by 15 percentage points among female voters.

    A Noriega spokesman said Noriega's popularity in his home county shows that more and more voters favor him as they learn more about him.

    "The poll shows what we have been seeing around the state, that Texans are ready for a change as opposed to a senator who votes with the failed policies of the Bush administration 95 percent of time," spokesman Martine Apodaca said.

    Cornyn spokesman Kevin McLaughlin said it was no surprise Noriega is running well in his home area. Regardless, he added, "as with the other 253 counties in Texas, we are mounting a vigorous campaign in Harris County and are confident that Senator Cornyn's hopeful message for the future will help him prevail there."

    McLaughlin pointed out that a statewide Zogby poll in 2002 showed Cornyn tied with Democrat Ron Kirk two days before the election — and that Cornyn won by 12 percentage points
     
  18. leroy

    leroy Member
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    I know it's not going to happen, but could you imagine the embarassent to the GOP if Texas went blue? Then we're talking about 400+ electoral votes.

    Again...I know it isn't going to happen. Just thinking hypothetically.
     
  19. El_Conquistador

    El_Conquistador King of the D&D, The Legend, #1 Ranking

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    There will be more dems voting Republican than vice versa.
     
  20. dandorotik

    dandorotik Member

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    D.O.G.

    Delusions...

    You can fill in the rest.
     

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