Like I said somewhere around here, folks better vote early. We may see a higher turnout than we've seen in decades. Early voting suggests 2008 may see record turnout, expert says WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Officials in early voting states are reporting record turnout with Election Day still two weeks away. The numbers indicate a record percentage of voters could participate in the presidential election, a voting expert said. Michael McDonald, an associate professor of politics and government at George Mason University, said at least 2.2 million people already have voted using absentee or other types of ballots that allow them to vote before the polls open on November 4. Twenty-nine states were accepting early ballots as of Tuesday, and two more -- New Jersey and Oklahoma -- will begin accepting early ballots next week. In North Carolina, which has developed into a battleground state, nearly 500,000 voters have cast absentee ballots, according to the State Board of Elections. Officials at the State Board of Elections expect to surpass numbers from the 2004 election, when 700,000 people voted early. Fifty-six percent, of those voting early in North Carolina were Democrats, while 28 percent were Republicans and 16 percent were not registered as a member of a party, the elections board said. Officials in Houston, Texas, said more than 39,000 people voted on the first day of early voting Monday, nearly double the amount for the initial day in 2004, CNN affiliate KHOU-TV in Houston reported. Early voting has also begun in the critical battleground states of Florida, Colorado, Ohio, Nevada and Virginia. A record number of voters lined up to vote when Florida opened its early voting stations Monday, with some waiting hours to cast their ballots. The early polling stations will remain open until the weekend before Election Day. Jennifer Davis, spokeswoman for the Florida secretary of state's office, said several counties are reporting numbers far exceeding the 2004 turnout. In Sarasota County, 4,700 people cast ballots Monday, compared with 2,088 on the first day four years ago, Davis said, leading officials there to believe that half the county's ballots could be cast before November 4. In Martin, St. Lucie and Indian River counties, 6,688 people already had opted for early voting, compared with 1,088 on the first day in 2004. The Jacksonville Times-Union reported long lines in northeast Florida, with at least two counties reporting problems with voting machines. In Duval County, 7 of 15 optical scanning machines used to count ballots had to be replaced, the newspaper reported. The number of voters who already have cast their ballots could be much higher, McDonald said, because many states have not reported the number of ballots they have received so far. Early voting suggests a record 213 million people are eligible to vote this year, said McDonald, who also works with the consortium that conducts election exit polling for broadcast and news networks. "This will be the election in which the most people have ever voted in an American election in the history of our country," he said. McDonald said early voting is often a good prediction of the level of turnout on Election Day, and heavy early voting indicates the turnout this year will exceed the 60 percent turnout in the 2004 election. "We have a very good chance of beating the 64 percent turnout in the 1960 election," McDonald said. "We really could be looking at a historic election in modern American history." That race saw the highest level of turnout in American history, except the 66 percent turnout in the 1908 presidential election. McDonald pointed to the record number of early votes already cast in Georgia as an example of the high interest in the race. More than 690,000 Georgians already have voted, more than the entire number that cast ballots before Election Day in 2004, McDonald said. That figure represents nearly 21 percent of all the 3.3 million presidential votes cast in 2004, he said. "If we see this persist across all states, we really could be in for an election of historic proportions," McDonald said. Of Georgians who have voted early, a majority, 56 percent, were women, according to the Georgia secretary of state's office. About 60 percent of those voting were white, while 35 percent voting early were black, the office said. Turnout was so heavy in Charlotte, North Carolina, that Mecklenburg County officials are extending voting hours and opening 20 voting sites this weekend instead of the originally planned five, WSOC-TV in Charlotte reported. Like Georgia, a majority of those voting early in North Carolina -- 56 percent -- were women, the election board said. The board also reported that 68 percent of those voting early were white, while 28 percent were black. When early voting began in Virginia last Wednesday, election officials in Mason District, in the northern Virginia county of Fairfax, had to turn their largest meeting room into a seating area to handle the number of voters wanting to cast early ballots. "We needed to have enough room for people, so they wouldn't go into the parking lot," Supervisor Penny Gross said. Gross said she had expected large numbers because "I had people in my office for weeks, asking if they could vote," but said even she was caught off guard by the turnout. "I was pleasantly surprised by the crowd, surprised at the variety and quite frankly, the numbers," she said http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/21/early.voting/index.html#cnnSTCText
following up on Deck's post from josh -- 10% Along with their daily horse race numbers, Gallup is also tracking how many voters say they've already voted, either by absentee or early voting in their states. As of today, the percentage of registered voters is at 10% who say they've already voted. Bear in mind that not all registered voters vote -- in fact a lot of them don't. So the percentage of the 2008 electorate that has already cast a ballot is certainly higher than 10%. --Josh Marshall
I don't think Josh's math / Gallup Poll adds up here to reality. The actual data says that about 3 million people have early voted. If we have 100 million voters (relatively low turnout), that means only 3% of people have voted so far. I think people are saying they voted already even if they didn't. Or people that are willing to talk to Gallup are more likely to have voted.
hum... you make a good point Major here's the gallup link http://www.gallup.com/poll/111304/Gallup-Daily-Early-Voting.aspx
Recent trends have been toward Obama the last couple of days after rolling to McCain a little. I'm sure it's gonna get wilder each day going forward, especially if McCain brings Rev. Wright back into the picture as his campaign manager said they might do. From tpm. Today's polls: • Gallup: Obama 52%, McCain 44%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 52%-42% Obama lead yesterday. • Rasmussen: Obama 51%, McCain 45%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 50%-46% Obama lead from yesterday. • ABC/Washington Post: Obama 54%, McCain 43%, with a ±3% margin of error, compared to a 53%-44% Obama lead yesterday. • Hotline/Diageo: Obama 47%, McCain 42%, with a ±3.4% margin of error, compared to a 47%-41% Obama lead from yesterday. • Research 2000: Obama 51%, McCain 41%, with a ±3% margin of error, compared to a 50%-42% Obama lead from yesterday. • Zogby: Obama 52%, McCain 42%, with a ±2.9% margin of error, compared to a 50%-42% Obama lead yesterday. Adding these polls together and weighting them by the square roots of their sample sizes, Obama is ahead 51.3%-43.1%, a lead of 8.2 points, compared to the 50.5%-43.1% Obama lead from yesterday
Obama lead on McCain grows to 12 points By Andrew Quinn Andrew Quinn – Thu Oct 23, 3:11 am ET * Cafferty: Obama favored abroad Play Video Video: Cafferty: Obama favored abroad CNN * AIG chief: We ran out of money Play Video Video: AIG chief: We ran out of money BBC * Shares struggle on Asian markets Play Video Video: Shares struggle on Asian markets BBC US Democratic presidential nominee Senator Barack Obama (D-IL) speaks at a Reuters – US Democratic presidential nominee Senator Barack Obama (D-IL) speaks at a campaign event at the Palm … WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Democrat Barack Obama's lead over Republican rival John McCain has grown to 12 points in the U.S. presidential race, with crucial independent and women voters increasingly moving to his side, according to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released on Thursday. With less than two weeks before the November 4 election, Obama leads McCain 52 percent to 40 percent among likely voters in the latest three-day tracking poll, which had a margin of error of 2.9 points. Obama has made steady gains over the last four days and has tripled his lead on McCain in the past week of polling. "Obama's expansion is really across the board," pollster John Zogby said. "It seems to be among almost every demographic group." The Illinois senator saw his lead among women -- who are expected to play a decisive role in this election -- increase to 18 points from 16 points on Wednesday. And independent voters, who have been the target of intense campaign efforts by both sides, have now swung behind Obama by a 30-point margin, 59 percent to 29 percent. Zogby said McCain, 72, appeared to have lost the traction he won after the third and final presidential debate last week. "McCain can still try to turn it around, but he has to find focus," Zogby said, adding that economic issues, which dominated the campaign amid turmoil in the credit, housing and financial markets, still seem to be working in Obama's favor. "At some point there are some issues that just overwhelm, and McCain has been particularly weak on the economy," Zogby said in a statement. Other recent national polls have given Obama a narrower lead, but Zogby said he was confident in his sampling methods. The latest poll showed a continued erosion of McCain's support even among his "base" voters. While Obama wins the backing of 86 percent of Democrats, only 81 percent of Republicans back the Arizona senator -- down from figures in the low 90s immediately after the Republican national convention in early September. Obama holds a 6-point lead among men, 48 percent to 42 percent, while white voters -- who had been among McCain's core support groups -- now only back McCain by a 2-point margin. Independent Ralph Nader and Libertarian Bob Barr held relatively steady at 2 percent and 1 percent respectively. Three percent of voters said they remained undecided, unchanged from Wednesday. The rolling tracking poll surveyed 1,208 likely voters in the presidential election. In a tracking poll, the most recent day's results are added while the oldest day's results are dropped to monitor changing momentum. The U.S. president is determined by who wins the Electoral College, which has 538 members apportioned by population in each state and the District of Columbia. Electoral votes are allotted on a winner-take-all basis in all but two states, which divide them by congressional district. (Editing by Mohammad Zargham) http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20081023/pl_nm/us_usa_politics_poll I like this new trend
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1284.xml?ReleaseID=1223&What=&strArea=;&strTime=0 October 23, 2008 - Economy Buoys Obama In Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll Finds; McCain Gains Some Ground In Florida, But Fades In Ohio --- FLORIDA: Obama 49 - McCain 44; OHIO: Obama 52 - McCain 38; PENNSYLVANIA: Obama 53 - McCain 40 It's still the economy as Sen. Barack Obama rolls up support among groups who have not supported a Democrat for decades to lead Republican Sen. John McCain in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to simultaneous Quinnipiac University Swing State polls released today. With 12 days to go, Sen. McCain is narrowing the gap in Florida, but fading in Ohio and barely denting Sen. Obama's double-digit lead in Pennsylvania. No one has been elected President since 1960 without taking two of these three largest swing states in the Electoral College. Results from the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe- ack) University polls show: * Florida: Obama up 49 - 44 percent, compared to 51 - 43 percent October 1; * Ohio: Obama up 52 - 38 percent, widening an October 1 lead of 50 - 42 percent; * Pennsylvania: Obama ahead 53 - 40 percent, compared to 54 - 39 percent last time.
I'm not counting on Florida and Ohio, although I think Barack's chances of winning there are excellent. He doesn't need them if he wins Virginia and Colorado, IMO, and I think he does. In the states where Obama holds a fairly small lead (like Florida, Ohio, Nevada, Missouri, North Carolina), if he wins, electoral landslide. If he loses them, he still wins. I'm very confident that he is going to win, and possibly big, electorally. Not relaxed... not after 2000 and the rest of the recent elections, but we are taking this thing.
Kind of hard being in New York and all. BTW I've already met him! (well shook his hand in a rope line)
