Election 2008

With the state polls seemingly rolling in his favor, why isn't Obama further ahead in the national polls? I understand the difference between the battleground states and the non-battleground states. But the movement between them shouldn't be completely disconnected, should it? I'm thinking Obama should have a 10 point lead nationally to reflect the number of "red" states that are in play right now.

 

I'm not so sure about that - Kerry lost by a couple of %. Obama seems to be ahead by about 6-8%, so that's up to a 10% net change. That seems like more than enough to push VA, CO, IA, FL, OH, etc into the Dem column. Plus, Obama's appeal is different than traditional Dems, so it may just be making other red states even redder or traditional blue states a little less blue (I have no idea on either of these), which would counter the moves in the battleground states.

 

Doesn't he have that in some polls?

 

Maybe he is losing utah by 98%

 

This sums up the campaign nicely.

You've got one guy running for President, and one guy running to stop the other guy from being President.

History tells us that the guy with the plan beats the guy with the plan to stop the other guys plan every time.

 

Today, 10/18:

Daily Kos is 50/43 (was 52/42 yesterday)
Rasmussen is 50/43
Diageo is 49/42
Zogby is 48/44
Gallup was 50/43 yesterday

If you look at how the campaigns are behaving (which is based on state polls), Obama seems to be in a commanding position. The national polls don't give him such a commanding lead IMO.

 

National polls are not as relevant as state polls...and electoral college projections....just ask Al Gore.

DD

 

Just voted.

Go go democracy

 

Michigan
Wisconsin
Maine
Colorado
Next........

 

I don't really get why McCain is hoping for such a dramatic comeback in Pennsylvania. He's better off quitting there and running ads in CO or MI. Those states seem at least somewhat within his reach.

Pennsylvania has already decided you doofus.

 

BREAKING NEWS:

Obama leaving the campaign for a few days to be with sick grandmother.

 

next four (hopefully 8) years of fixing this country from the inside out. bring our schools on par with europe and asia. bring down the number of people without healthcare, get mass transit going in this country, do something about our horrible need for more and more oil.

and to the out of restoring our image to the world, stop letting the euro kick the dollars ass. and so on and so on...

bush has screwed this country up to the breaking point. and im to the point where i can truly see almost no way obama loses this election. i just hope he does what i think he is capable of.

 

Maybe I should have just posted this poll here.




http://www.gallup.com/poll/111253/World-Citizens-Prefer-Obama-McCain-Nearly-4to1.aspx

 

Obama opens 8-point lead over McCain





WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Democrat Barack Obama has opened an 8-point lead over Republican John McCain two weeks before the U.S. presidential election, according to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released on Tuesday.

Obama leads McCain 50 percent to 42 percent among likely U.S. voters in the latest three-day tracking poll, up from a 6-point advantage for Obama on Monday. The telephone poll has a margin of error of 2.9 percentage points.

"It was another very big day for Obama," said pollster John Zogby. "Things clearly are moving in Obama's direction."

It was the second consecutive day that Obama gained ground on McCain as the two head into the final sprint to the November 4 election.

Obama, an Illinois senator, expanded his lead among two key swing groups. His advantage with independent voters grew from 11 to 15 points, and his edge with women voters grew from 8 to 13 points.

Obama also took a lead among voters above the age of 70 and expanded his lead among Hispanics and Catholics. His support among Republicans grew from 9 percent to 12 percent a day after he received the endorsement of Republican former Secretary of State Colin Powell.

"Maybe this is the Powell effect," Zogby said. "That wasn't just an endorsement, that was a pretty powerful statement."

McCain narrowly trails Obama among men and saw his lead among whites drop from 13 points to 9 points, 51 percent to 42 percent. Zogby said Obama was doing better than 2004 Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry among crucial sub-groups.

"He is clearly outperforming Kerry," Zogby said. "But two weeks is a lifetime in politics."

This was the first time Obama has stretched his advantage over McCain, an Arizona senator, to more than 6 points since the tracking poll began more than two weeks ago. Obama's edge had been between 2 and 6 points in all 15 days of polling.

Some other tracking polls have showed the race tightening in the last few days. But with the help of his huge spending advantage, Obama has maintained an edge on McCain in key states.

The poll, taken Saturday through Monday, showed independent Ralph Nader gaining 2 percent support. Green Party candidate Cynthia McKinney and Libertarian Bob Barr each registered 1 percent support.

The rolling tracking poll surveyed 1,214 likely voters in the presidential election. In a tracking poll, the most recent day's results are added while the oldest day's results are dropped to monitor changing momentum.

The U.S. president is determined by who wins the Electoral College, which has 538 members apportioned by population in each state. Electoral votes are allotted on a winner-take-all basis in all but two states, which divide them by congressional district.

 

The key here is that it is among likely voters.

However nobody should be over confident. Anything can happen, and Obama's team should operate like they are down in the polls.

 

I believe the most significant thing about this is it's Zogby, which has consistently given Obama a narrower lead than the other polls. It will be interesting to see if the others track the same direction as Zogby. If so, that explains why McCain's campaign manager said yesterday they are considering bringing up Rev. Wright. It may be desperation time.

 

Two things to be noted here:

1. Any poll that uses likely voters is using their own made up screening system to estimate what turnout is likely to be. The problem here is that no one has any clue what turnout is likely to be, so its a bit of a crapshoot.

2. According to 538, Zogby, in all their great wisdom, bases their political D/R/I breakdowns on party ID in 2004. So if party ID has shifted towards Dems since then - and we know it has - it would be undercounting Dems and overcounting Republicans. I have no clue why Zogby would do that.

 

[Breaking] Rockets Select Olajuwon over Bowie, Jordan - Zogby