The knick don't count because there is not player on that team that I would want for anything other than a 6th man role. In regards to Portland, remember that they took the laker with a league MVP to 7 games. Their problem is that their best player was Sheed and he's headcase. Couple that with having to play against Shaq in his prime didn't give them much of a chance.
Welcome to the NEW NBA! The teams that saw this coming are reaping the rewards right now. PENETRATION is the key. Breaking down defenses. Forcing the issue. QUICKNESS is huge, both off the dribble and defensively with lateral quickness. TEAM defense is even more important now since it is hard to guard guys one on one. Exactly. Quick. Can take people off the dribble. Has a 3pt shot. Has a firey personality, something the Rockets need.
I agree with A_3PO in general. Det was going to lose to Miami last year if not for Wade getting injured, and now Mia is more talented and Wade is even better. Detroit did lose to the Spurs last year anyway and didn't show much fire in games 1, 2 & 7. Maybe Larry Brown again shows more than anything he knows when his team is on the down and it is time to bail. It is going to be Mia-Dallas, just a question on when. And Miami will win. 1) The guard matchups will more exploit Dallas's than Miami's. 1st, there is no way Terry or Harris can handle Wade, it make their 2 guard quick lineup of limited use. So they Dallas have to play more big, with someone like Stack or Howard or Daniels or Griffin trying to play Wade. And of these, Stack is not quick enough now and Daniels or Griffin are a major drags on the offense that cancel out anything they do defensively over time. So that leaves Howard as the only guy with the size and athleticism to play Wade without killing Dallas's offense. Further I see two problems with this, 1) though Howard has a lot of natural ability he is a dumbass and foul prone, and 2) I don't think he is better than other long athletic players like Prince or Jefferson defensively, and certainly not as clever, and they couldn't handle Wade either. In short, I see Wade going off on Dallas just like he has everyone else. Bruce Bowen would be your best shot at getting away with some 1 on 1 coverage, and he doesn't play for Dallas. 2) Inside game. Duncan (32PPG) showed how vulnearable Dallas was on the inside to a power player. Shaq has always haunted Dallas and I see no reason for that to change based on what he have seen out of Shaq and out of Dallas. Overall I think Mia wins in 6, maybe 5. Mia shoots a substantially higher FG% and defends at a substantially lower OFG, this has held true in the playoffs and regular season. That is why Mia has chewed up 3 playoff opponents (now 11-4), many of them who had been at their peak (Chi, New Jersey). Dallas would have to make up a ton of points via rebounding (happening versus the Suns but won't versus Mia), foul line and turnovers that they are going to consistently lose in set offense and set defense versus Mia. I don't see that as a likely way to squeeze out 3 victories in a series, let alone 4. For Dallas is win Dirk will have to be exceptional (he probably will be, Mia doesn't really have very good players to play him) BUT Dallas will need more, MUCH MORE. IMO Howard will have to play like an all-star on both ends and Terry will also have to wreak havic. I don't see it, Wade is probably the best player in the league to take out Terry by himself and Posey or Haslem can guard Howard just fine. Diop playing great would be Dallas only other chance--he has shown flashs where he makes their interior defense much better and coverts here and there on offense too, but a tall order versus Shaq/Zo.
But Shaq only has to be the #2 option and pick his spots. Wade will be the best player in the finals (not only offensively unstoppable but will also take out Dallas's #2 offensive option, Terry), than Dirk, than Shaq. Mia will take out every other Mav over the course of the series and Wade/Shaq prevails in 5 or 6. Det winning the next 3 is Dallas's best hope b/c Mia is a very bad match-up for them.
Desert Scar, what LB showed last season is that he's an insecure psycho-jerk with zero loyalty to anything but himself. Yes, he realized it was time to bail because the players were getting tired of his relentless criticism no matter how good they played. He knew coming back for another season wasn't going to work so he did what he thought was in his own best interest. Turns out he should have focused on winning the championship instead. Then again, maybe $50MM actually WAS in his personal best interest (though not for his legacy). I also agree with you on the Finals, for now. If the Mavs raise their game up and stomp the Suns in the final 2 games I'll take another look. My problem with the Mavs is they seem too helpless sometimes when Dirk isn't on the court. Jason Terry MUST play better. It makes me sick to see him piddle around against other teams while he always seems to bring his "A" game against the Rockets. If it's Mavs vs. Heat, Wade will have a field day because, like you said, Josh Howard is no better defender than anyone else Wade has seen so far. Shaq will destroy the Diop/Dampier joke of a center combo. Pencil in 10-12 fouls each game for them. The keys for the Mavs will be Devin Harris, Jason Terry & Josh Howard. Even if Dirk averages 25/20 he can't beat the Heat by himself because Wade will be just as spectacular. IMO, if Wade is Wade, Shaq is energetic and the other Heat players use their heads and play with passion, the Heat will be champions, end of story.
As much as I want to believe this (believe me I do) because the end result would mean that Cuban goes home crying and w/o a trophy, the only person I can't count out on the Mavericks is Avery Johnson. The man can coach. He's effectively changed schemes and plans to counter the teams that he has faced. I give him a lot of credit as a coach. I agree that Wade will have a field day against the Mavericks. Dallas has had a lucky playoffs in that they haven't had to defend anyone on the scale of Wade yet. And to couple that with Shaq and Dallas' inferior centers? Fuggetaboutit.
Outside of Wade, Miami really doesn’t have anyone on the perimeter athletic and quick enough to keep up with all of Dallas’ guards (Terry, Harris, Stackhouse, Daniels, Howard). I think the same thing that happened to the Spurs this postseason (and Rockets last year) will happen to the Heat. The youth and athleticism of the Dallas guards will make the Heat guards look extremely old and slow. Their guards will cause the same matchup problems that the Chicago guards caused Miami in the first round. Shaq is going to be in foul trouble the entire series because there will constantly be Mav guards blowing past their defender and getting into the paint.
Did you watch the game last night? A shell of a Shaq is more than enough when Wade is on. Even the "shell" shaq went 8-12, 21 points, 9 rebs, and played with flashes of old shaq energy yesterday, even going coast to coast on a block/layup. His free throws still suck but that ain't exactly something new.
Like one of the announcers said last night, Shaq is starting to smell the champagne. Just because he's deferring to Wade (pretty smart if you ask me) and isn't averaging 30/15 like the old days doesn't mean he's "a shell of his former self". The guy can still dominate if he has to. If I were a PF or C on the Mavricks (by name only), I would be getting pretty worried right about now. Get the icepacks and Advil ready.
Considering that Rik Smits averaged 14-6 for his career, I don't think so. But when you join the rest of us in 2006 you'll notice Dwayne Wade is a decent player. Stop with this silliness.
Against teams that are mediocre offensively like Chicago/New Jersey/Detroit, Wade and Shaq alone may be enough to win a playoff series, but not against Dallas. They proved that already last year against the Rockets (Yao/Mcgrady) and the Spurs this year (Duncan/Ginobili). Dallas has too many weapons on offense. If Miami wants a chance, they'll have to make it a low scoring series. The problem is, Miami is not a particularly good defensive team. They're an offensive minded team that wins by outshooting their opponents. But they can't do that against Dallas like they can against Detroit.
I actually have not been that impressed with Avery. #1-He almost blew the Spurs series because he played more KVH and Damp instead of Diop. They were fortunate to make it to overtime in game 7 where Diop made a difference. To me Popovich almost stole a series his worn out looking team was overmatched athletically with. #2-He has let the Suns stay much closer than they should. The only reason the Suns won a game is because Dallas hasn't been disciplined, the Suns played 2 other competitive games as well. Given no Amare, no Kurt Thomas no Bell for 2+ games, talentwise this series should not be nearly as competitive as it has been. I don't think Wade + JW/GP are that exploitable. Certainly if Dallas goes small (Terry/Harris) I like Wade versus either of those two as more exploitable when Mia is on offense than the opposite guy paired with GP/JW one on one when Dallas is on offense. Also, Daniels is a major offensive liability and Stackhouse gets by less on quickness than size. JH could pose a problem, but they can switch Posey or Haslem there. Mia still cruised by Chicago after game 4 and won 4-2, and this was depsite Hinrich and Gordon playing out of their minds in ways I don't think Terry and Harris can duplicate. Mia also crushed Carter/RJ/Kidd and are handling Prince/Rip/Billips OK. I don't think Dallas guard/wing play is better than those teams. Dallas is going to get someone to slow down Wade and have to get great front line play (Diop, Howard, Damp, KVH?) around Dirk to play with Mia--I don't see it at all barring an injury to Miami's big 2.
Here are some figures: Mia FG% in the regular season was 47.8 and in the post season is 48.8. Mia OFG% in the reg season was 44.0 and in the post season is 43.9 (3rd best). Dal FG% in the regular season was 46.2 and in the post season is 46.2. Dal OFG% in the reg season was 44.3 and in the post season is 46.9. Mia had the best FG% - OFG% in the regular season (+3.8) and has increased this in the playoffs (+5%). Dallas has been very mediocre, actually shooting a tad worse than their opponents (-.7). It would really bad if you throw out Memphis, who was the worst playoff team and probably didn't belong. So how is Dallas winning having a % differential to their opponents? Rebounding, turnovers and free throws. Dallas has a whopping .54 rebouding average. Dallas had a TO advantage versus SA (and needed every one). Dallas has shot 29.2FTs and made a terrific 82%. How does this fit with Mia? Rebounding--Mia was the #1 reboudning team in the league and #1 in the playoffs from the EC. Dallas isn't going to gain much ground here. Turnovers? Dallas is +.4 and Mia in -1.7 on TOs, so edge Dallas here. Free throws: Mia takes 28.1 but shoots a poor 69%, big edge Dallas. So the question is can Dallas's advantage in TOs and FTs compensate for Mia being the more efficient half court team offensively and being the better half court defensive team? I really doubt it. TO and FT differential is enough to keep Det in some games but not win very many, and Detroit is a much more disciplined team than Dallas. Dallas has also been living off a major rebounding edge they are not going to get. Finally, Hack-a-Shaq to take advantage of his FT shooting won't work because Wade (almost 80% at the line) is the #1 option at this point anyway. I really think if Detroit (a more disciplined and veteran version of Dallas) can't come back to beat Mia, Dallas isn't going to.
Plus either Dallas or Phx will have the home court. I am willing to bet either of them can beat Heats in 6. Heat can't match the speed and quickness.
On paper I think Miami should be able to handle Dallas. The X factor of that matchup is the Miami's ability to handle Dallas's speed at all five positions. This is the reason the Bulls faired so well agaist the Heat. If Dallas can force Miami into a running game like they did agaist the Spurs, the Heat will have their hands full because it will take Shaq out of the game.
I think smaller quicker guards like Devin Harris and Jason Terry are the exact type of guards that match up with Dwayne Wade best. I wouldn’t be surprised if Detroit plays Linsey Hunter more the next game to defend Wade. Kirk Hinrich and Ben Gordon gave Wade fits during that first series. He has no problems against taller slower 2-guards like Carter/Jefferson/Hamilton. If you want to slow him down, you have to put someone on him that has point-guard-like quickness, because Wade basically has point-guard-like quickness. Posey will most likely be the player assigned to guard Dirk. That’s been the strategy every team has used against him in the playoffs, put a quick small forward on him. The problem is Posey is not the defender that Bruce Bowen, Mcgrady, and Marion are. That leaves Haslem or Walker to guard Howard/Stack at small forward. I don’t see that being a favorable matchup for Miami. Again, Chicago, Detroit, and New Jersey are all mediocre offensively and have little or no depth. None of those teams have the firepower that Dallas has. Chicago and New Jersey are both 3-deep and got zilch from anybody else. Detroit is 4 deep with little else. The games have basically been first team to score 90 wins. It won’t be that easy to contain Dallas on offense. Dallas and Miami are both very similar to each other in philosophy. Both offensive minded teams that play so-so defense. But I just think Dallas is more talented offensively than Miami, while they’re both the same defensively.
Dallas will not be able to deal with Shaq..period.Wade is a huge problem for the Mavs too,but everything emanates from the Big Aristotle.He really helps Wade be as good as he can be. The Mavs will throw the kitchen sink(Dampier,Diap,etc. with help defense) at him.But with a collection of former all stars(finally knowing their roles)and Mr.Wade,Shaq should control the action. My guess is Dallas figures to put Howard on Wade.......Personally I hope Wade tears him apart.
