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Early statistical comparison between last season and this one

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Carl Herrera, Nov 13, 2009.

  1. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Member

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    Thanks, thacabbage. Just to clarify, I am just joking about the "eraser-less" point. I agree that there is something about having a "very big man" that helps a defense, even if he doesn't put up huge numbers of BPG. A big part of it is that a guy like Yao (and, an even better case is Mutombo) can challenge shots without jumping much and stay in position to block out and reboudn the ball. As I said, the smaller Rockets have had to take chances much more often, which hurts their defensive rebouding % overall (nice job vs. the Lakers last night, though).

    In any case, the Rockets are not terrible on D right now, they are still a bit above average, and they are smart enough to still improve as the season go on as guys adjusst to playing with each other. However, this team will have to no doubt go about the business of defense in a much different way than back when they had a 7'6'' center.

    One more point: Last year's Rockets were fairly bad whenever Yao Ming sat... scoring 105.9 per possession while giving up 108.5. They were very good when he was on the floor: scoring 111.5 and giving up 103.1. Again, the league average points per possession was about 108.8.


    http://www.82games.com/0809/08HOU17.HTM#onoff

    I was kind of curious whether the current Rockets would be below average like last (regular) season's Yao-less team. It seems that, early in the season, they have been much better than that-- which could mean very good things when, hopefully, the big center returns next season.




    Side note: the Rockets are giving up 104.3 per 100 possession now, compared to 104.0 last season. What changed was that the league average went from 108.3 last season to 105.5 this year, so where as they were #4 last year, they are now #14 (they were #13 when I first posted).
     
  2. JeopardE

    JeopardE Member

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    Yao "is" a very big man. ;)

    I expect the Rockets' defensive numbers to improve as the season progresses. While it is true that Yao's absence has significantly affected the team's defensive performance, they have still fallen further than expected. And what might surprise you is that opposing teams have been doing most of their damage from the perimeter, not from inside the paint. The Rockets have actually done a fairly admirable job of protecting the paint and not giving up lots of layups while lacking a shotblocking presence. Unfortunately their perimeter defense has suffered badly, which is not what we expected given the defensive talent we have on the wings (Battier, Ariza, Lowry). On a slightly tangential note, Chase Budinger has seemingly been the most effective team defender at the guard spots despite preseason reservations, perhaps because he gambles a lot less? Shane has admittedly not been as effective as he normally is -- there is a valid question as to whether it is due to having to adjust to the lack of a shot blocking presence in the middle or just his age catching up to him a bit with a faster-paced style.

    I think part of this is also due to the fact that a lot of the coaching focus from training camp up till now has been on offense. This is still very much a work in progress, and I think they will tighten up on the perimeter. They have been particularly bad at giving up 3-pointers (and as Carl Herrera pointed out, giving up free throws). Part of that might mean that as a team they need to gamble less and focus more on fundamental defense, especially players like Ariza that like to play passing lanes and often get caught out of position resulting in shooting fouls and wide open shots. The steals are nice and make for fun basketball to watch, but as we've all come to appreciate over the past few years, they do not a high defensive rating make. It will be interesting though, to see if they can somehow maintain their fast breaking rate while learning to gamble less on the defensive end.
     
  3. thacabbage

    thacabbage Contributing Member

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    Jeopard:

    As you stated, I think two of the biggest surprises thus far are a) Ariza's defensive woes and b) Budinger's defensive competence.

    Regarding Ariza, he's extremely poor fundamentally. He gambles way too much, which, while to the average fan, may come as a delight in paying off for some fastbreak dunks, its not conducive to good team defense. On the flip side, I think it was Carl that stated that because of Yao's absence, the approach is now a perimeter "rush" as opposed to fundamental 'funneling' to the paint. I think there is a lot of merit to that argument.

    As far as Chase, I mentioned in my blog how shocked I was to see Adelman keep him on Brandon Roy for long stretches. He was on Kobe last night. At this point, I don't know if, rather than experimental player development, its just that Chase is a good defender.
     
  4. durvasa

    durvasa Member

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    Also keep in mind that league efficiency is generally much less in the first month of the season then the rest of the way.
     

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