Early statistical comparison between last season and this one

Such a small sample for this season but still a good post that gives some insights.

One thing we need to take into account is that this team is very different from last season's team. As the season progresses, teams will start to have better defensive assignments to adjust against us.

 

Looking at Field goal defense (eFG%) based on distance from the basket for selected teams. Its standardized, meaning that greater than 1 is very good, less than 1 is very bad, close to 0 is middle of the pack. Note this is just looking at opponent efficiency -- another aspect of defense is controlling where the opponent takes their shots. Compared to a year ago, Rockets have dropped off in their FG defense at the rim and at the 3-point line.

Data collected from Hoop Data.

 

We are eraser-less. The actual team's BPG are irrelevant as I see it. The threat and intimidation from the size of an accomplished shot blocker is much more important. I doubt there's any stat on this but it is pretty obvious when you watch big guys like Yao play. I would say Chuck Hayes is a better defender than Yao but Yao can just stand straight up and affect a shot which is just as effective as a block. Players avoid going at him.

In the early going this season nearly all of the rockets' blocks have come from the weak side and perimeter. This is significant because even though opposing teams are getting some of their shots stopped at the rim it's more because they are getting caught by surprise instead of seeing their shots erased by someone who will be there all night.

A better way of looking at it is how many shots are scored on us from close shots, dunks and tips. Last season it was 30.3 points and this season it is 33.7. Fyi, that is a significant difference. The rockets were ranked 4th in the league at preventing these inside shots, this season they would be below average.

 

This is nice data to see - maybe it will erase for once and for all the idea that Yao isn't a great defender. JVG said that Yao and Tracy distorted opposing team's defense so that the rest of the players would get better chances, but you wouldn't see it via conventional stats.

From the time Yao came into the league, he caused an even bigger distortion on the defensive end. He never had gaudy block numbers or rebound numbers, but the Rockets have been a very good to great defensive team since he came here, and he is the bedrock of that. Chuck Hayes is a great defensive player - but he obviously doesn't have the same impact that Yao does.

 

Best estimate of a player's defensive impact, statistically, is perhaps the new adjusted +/- from Hoop Numbers.

http://hoopnumbers.com/allAnalysisView?analysis=defRAPM

Code:

Houston Rockets

Rank	Player	Defensive RAPM
1	Yao Ming	-3.742
2	Chuck Hayes	-3.674
3	Dikembe Mutombo	-2.538
4	Ron Artest	-2.129
5	Kyle Lowry	-1.099
6	Shane Battier	-1.067
7	Luis Scola	-0.719
8	Brian Cook	-0.653
9	Rafer Alston	-0.426
10	Carl Landry	0.750
11	Tracy McGrady	0.877
12	Von Wafer	1.139
13	Brent Barry	1.304
14	Luther Head	2.517
15	Aaron Brooks	2.947

Looks about right to me, and its purely arrived at based on who was on the floor and how much the opponent scored each possession. Take Brian Cook's numbers with a grain of salt ... he's played sporadically on various teams over the last couple years, so that's not so reliable.

 

I seem to read this from lots of people. Why do people think this? When Yao has basically been a top 10 rebounder in the league year after year? And this despite the Rockets constantly playing one of the slowest paces in the NBA?

 

Last year he ranks 14th in rebounds per 48 minutes which I would consider average.

if talking physical traits that stop him from being an elite rebounder.

1) He doesn't have quick jump ability so he has to gather himself to jump.

2) He doesn't have strong hands, you will see him tip the ball a lot rather than grabbing it.

3) He's not really a two space rebounder, in that he can't go and get rebounds that are not in his vicinity because he is too slow.

 

The guy was trying to make a point that he doesn't have to grab a rebound to make an impact on TEAM REBOUNDING. That is a very true statement. Yao was always in good position downlow and he did two main things that helped the team get rebounds

1. he changed shots and forced alot of misses which led to rebounds
2. he took up alot of space and made it difficult for the other team to get position for an offensive rebound.

Alot of times last season he was content to allow Scola or someone else to grab the board and he focused more on keeping his man from getting it.

Someone should post a picture of Scola grabbing a board and telling Yao "all your rebound are belong to us."

 

like i have stated, we won't miss yao much offensively. however, we would miss him dearly on the defensive end. that problem is compounded by the fact that we have no other big man on board.

morey has to solve this problem. if deke was here, we wouldn't miss yao much at all on the defensive end.

 

Thats all you need to know. People don't really take notice how much he impacts the game defensively. I think alot of people seem to look at a few plays here or there where he cant get out on a pick and roll or a play where he gets dunked on and they come to the conclusion that he's no a good defender. What about the countless times a game a penetrator drives in and Yao comes over and forces him away from the paint. He isnt the greatest shot blocker but he is arguably one of the most imposing defensive prescenses in the game when he's out there. He's the main reason why the Rockets were always near the top in opponent FG% which along with rebounding is the most important defensive statistic.

 

That's not true at all about not missing him offensively. I noticed moments in every loss so far this season where we could have taken advantage of Yao on the offensive end. We looked helpless in the half court in crucial moments of the game. Thats when in the past we would just dump it to yao who is undoubtably one of the most efficient low post players in the game. You lose a 20 PPG scorer who shoots over 50 percent from the field and who gets the the line and makes......thats going to hurt your offense. Our offense may appear more free flowing and fun to watch now because we're moving around and taking quicker shots, but possesion by possesion that's not going to be there. Theres going to be moments in the game where you're looking for stability and I don't see that with the rockets right now.

 

every team looks helpless at times offensively. no offense is perfect or smooth every minute of the game. we're scoring 103 points on 46% shooting. that's BEYOND great for a team like this. we've never scored this much or shot this well in the yao-tmac era.

if we had a defensive big man right now, we probably would be sitting at 7-2.

 

Its not about how much you score over the course of a game or any other number for that matter.

Its more about the crucial moments in a game when you need a basket, can you get it. When the other team knows they need a stop, can you score on them. I dont see that with the rockets right now. The other night in Dallas there were several points in the game where we could have just settled down and made a bucket or got to the line to stop their momentum. Against LA we had nothing going in the 4th quarter and with our last possesion we didnt even get a shot off.

 

obviously we do miss yao on offense too. but i'm emphasizing where we miss him the most and that's on the defensive end. morey said the same thing.

but like i said, we've never played or shot this well offensively in the ENTIRE yao-tracy era. the best we looked offensively in the yao-tmac era is during the 04-05 playoffs v. the mavs or the 22 game winning streak. that's impressive.

 

14th is "average"? How do figure that? Even if we ignore backups and SF/SG/PG positions, the last time I checked there are 60 starting PF/C in the league. And this doesn't even consider the pace factor.

What does any of this matter? Yao can look as awkward and stupid as he wants. He still gets his rebounds, right? The current Rockets players have better jumping ability, bigger hands, and are much quicker than Yao. Yet we continuously get killed on the boards.

 

Yeah it looks about right. I expected Deke to go higher though.

 

I think offense is something easier to replace so in a sense i agree with you. He is missed more on the defense end. You cant replace his prescense down there, and that's been our staple. We have to defend and we have to rebound. Even during the streak we won half of those games scoring less than 100 points.

We're not going to consistantly outscore teams. There are just too many good scorers in this league.

 

it would also help if our guards contribute on the boards.

ariza plays 38 minutes and only pulls 4.9 rebounds a game. battier plays 34 minutes and pulls in an eye-popping 2.9 rebounds a game.

chase pulls in 3.3 boards in just 19 minutes of play.

i know shane guards the perimeter guys and usually doesn't focus on the boards, but in games where he doesn't need to "stick" to the other team's scorer (like last night), it would help if he would chip in.

a gimpy tmac last year pulled in 5 boards himself. and if he's healthy, he's also going to help getting around 5-7 boards a game.

but we gotta help luis scola/chuck/landry out. it should be a team effort.

 

You can say that all you want but if you dont get a body on the other teams big man, it doesnt matter what the other guys are doing. The center is the guy you need to control, and we just dont have the bodies to do that.

 

while that may be true, rebounding should be more of a team effort. like i said, i just rewatched bits and pieces of the game last night and we just have too many guys standing on the perimeter instead of just chipping inside and help the big men out. we're already way undersized.

when i play ball with my IM team, we're always undersized (asians FTL) yet we always tend to do decent on the boards b/c the guards always try to get the boards themselves instead of depending on the big men. i don't know if this is a good comparison though.