Early MVP rankings

BrooksBall · Jan 20, 2009

OCballfan said:

^ this year, sure, they'll probably sneak into the 8th seed, how bout pre-Gasol years?
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I think Kobe would have been more deserving of an MVP in one of those seasons even though they got knocked out of the 1st round or missed the playoffs entirely.

Again, I'm not talking about the most talented player in the league. You can make a good argument that Kobe is the best in that regard. I'm talking about most valuable player in the way I interpret the meaning of that award. I am also talking about this season for the most part, not previous seasons. I did say that I think Paul should have won it last season though. I don't think he was necessarily a better player (you could make that argument though). I just think he was more valuable to the Hornets than Kobe was to the Lakers even though the Lakers made it farther.

LongTimeFan · Jan 20, 2009

OCballfan said:

But isn't winning a strong factor in deciding whether you're a top player or not?
Come on man you know its not true. Smush is garbage, Kwame is garbage played post defense once in a blue moon and has an IQ of a pot, Devean George was good for shooting 3s and little else. Odom plays hard for 3 quarters and then shuts down on us. Marion is a DPOY candidate every year who does the little things to help you win, not to mention he can check PG - some PFs on defense. Haslem is a banger and is an NBA champ. Mario Chalmers and Daequan Cook are snipers. Beasley is a top pick and can provide you with double digit scoring off the bench while the Laker bench was invisible
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Lamar Odom then was better than anything the Heat have now. Shawn Marion might be one of the worse half court players in basketball. He's their best perimeter defender, but outside that he's useless. Saying Haslem is an NBA champ is r****ded - so was Pete Chilcutt. But I do like Haslem, that's why I mentioned him.. he's their second best player. Chalmers is a rookie PG whose going through the usual struggles with occasional good games. Beasley is a top pick, but he doesn't do jack **** besides shoot the ball. Coach doesn't even play him as much as you'd expect because he hasn't been playing D. Daequan Cook is starting to come into his own this year though.

I think winning is a strong factor, and that's why people don't consider Tmac great. My argument is that the heat ARE winning.. they even knocked off the Lakers and Cavs and are in the middle of the pack for the playoffs.

This is more of an argument of what SHOULD a MVP candidate be IMO vs. what reality is. MVP's usually come from teams with the best records, which I don't necessarily agree with. Was Robinson better than Hakeem the year he won MVP? No, but his team had more wins. Garbage.

Asian Sensation · Jan 20, 2009

1. LBJ
2. Kobe
3. Howard
4. CP3
5. Granger

Rest

Wade, Yao, Duncan

BrooksBall · Jan 20, 2009

Asian Sensation said:

1. LBJ
2. Kobe
3. Howard
4. CP3
5. Granger

Rest

Wade, Yao, Duncan
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How can you possibly put Granger ahead of Wade?

Granger is having a breakout year but is he really more valuable to the Pacers than Wade is to the Heat?

I'd like to hear your reasoning.

OCballfan · Jan 20, 2009

You should take a look at this

http://www.clublakers.com/l4ls-laker-lowdown-kobe-4-mvp-417-2814.html

Now, this leaves us with Kobe’s only real MVP competition, Chris Paul. Paul meets the entire MVP criterion: statistical excellence, durability, leadership, winningness, and he possesses a poster-boy face with a great storyline to his season. For one moment, as an aside, yes, the last thing I listed is legitimate criteria. The voters gave Nash his first MVP because the Suns lost three starters in Amare, Q-Rich, and Joe Johnson. They claimed his performance without them, despite not being anywhere close to first in the other MVP categories, defined his MVP worthiness. In fact, you could argue this is THE MOST IMPORTANT MVP factor. In my opinion, that is sad and unfortunate, but once you establish criteria, you must be consistent to be fair.

Let’s start off with statistical excellence. Both of these guys have been incredible in this category. You can literally flip a coin.

Chris Paul: 21ppg, 11apg, 4rpg, and nearly 3 steals on 49% shooting.
Kobe Bryant: 28ppg, 6rpg, 5.5apg nearly 2 steals on 46% shooting.

Without a shadow of a doubt, these two were the best, statistically, at their positions.
Among true SGs, Bryant ranks first in: points, rebounds, steals, assists, and is second in blocks. Among true PGs, Paul is 1st in assists, 4th in rebounds, 1st in steals, and 2nd in points. Ultimately, box score stats don’t tell you enough. In this case, whether you pick Paul’s or Bryant’s achievements in this arena, the difference is basically negligible; they are about equal.

However, there are a few major statistical and on-court differences between these two and they come down to clutch play, defense, and the ability to elevate your game against quality opponents.

When the score is within 5 in the last 5 minutes of a game:
Raw Numbers Here
(All Stats in Per 48 minutes form)

Kobe: 52ppg, 8rpg, 6apg on 45% shooting
CP3: 39ppg, 6rpg, 10.5apg on 48% shooting

When the score is within 3 in the last 3 minutes of a game:
Raw Numbers Here

Kobe: 64ppg, 12rpg, 5apg on 47% shooting
Paul: 54ppg, 8.5rpg, 11apg on 42% shooting

Kobe’s edge in this category is quite evident. In the triangle offense, no player has ever average more than 7-8apg because of “hockey assists”. That is, passes that lead to assists(that includes ALL of Phil’s teams). Watching the Lakers for all 82 games, I can assure you Kobe accumulated a great deal of these “hockey assists” and while I’m sure Paul does as well, it probably isn’t as many as Kobe because the triangle, by design, is a two pass-away offense. For those of you who are not basketball inclined, that means you need to make two passes to hit the open shooter or cutter at the correct angle. We can also see that while both players get progressively better down the stretch, Kobe clearly makes the greater jump from the 5 minute mark to the 3 minute mark. Kobe is a man possessed in the clutch. Paul’s huge dip in FG% indicates he is trying his best to take over, but simply isn’t at the level where he can maintain his efficiency, or even improve it like Kobe, and still exert his will offensively. In any case, no one doubts Kobe down the stretch. The same cannot be said of Paul.

Further, and perhaps more importantly, Chris Paul is a downright bad defender on the ball. Off the ball, he’s excellent and will get you an amazing amount of steals as many little guys seem to do. That said, his team gives up SIX less points per 100 possessions (a little more than the average amount in an NBA ball game) when Paul sits down. This off-sets two thirds of his offensive impact as the team puts up 15.4 less points per 100 possessions when he’s sitting (data Here). That is an incredible difference. In fact, we saw this problem manifest itself just last night when Jason Kidd hit him for a triple double and Jason Terry chipped in with 30 points of his own. Consider the following statistics: among the seven other Western playoff teams, in terms of FG% allowed, the Hornets gave up the 2nd worst FG% to Nash, the 3rd worst to Tony Parker, and the The bottom line here is this: Kobe is recognized as the best 2 guard defender in the NBA; on the other hand, Chris Paul just may be apart of the lower echelons of man defense at the PG position.

Against good teams, that is Boston, Detroit, L.A., Dallas, San Antonio, Houston, New Orleans, Phoenix, and Orlando, Chris Paul is averaging almost exactly the same numbers: 22ppg, 11apg, 4rpg on a reduced efficiency of 46% shooting. Bryant, on the other hand, steps up his numbers to 30ppg, 7rpg, 5apg on 47% shooting. Bryant also shoots an impressive 6% higher on his threes in these games to go along with his improved FG%. Statistically, that means his effective increase in efficiency is much more than just one percent when you account for the fact that threes are worth an additional point. If you go 2/6 on threes, you get six points. If you go 3/6 on 2s, you get 6 points. While you shot 33% in one case and 50% in the other, you are equally efficient in your point out-put. Hence, Kobe is MUCH more efficient in the big games. Here we can see, yet again, that Bryant brings unmeasured, competitive intangibles to the table that outweigh those which are brought by Paul.

When both players are putting up fantastic offensive numbers in the regular season and during the first three quarters, how can you choose the player who is less clutch, who doesn’t step his game up against the elite opponents, and is a much worse defender as the guy you think is most valuable to a team down the stretch of a game and on into the playoffs?

As we’ve seen with past MVP candidates, winning is a largely important piece of criteria. If all else is equal, winning can separate two candidates. In this case, Kobe, and his Lakers, won the head to head duel that gave his team the best record in the West; he won the duel that gave his Lakers a better record than the Hornets and the grand prize of 1st place in the toughest Western Conference in the history of basketball. Combined with the intangible court impacts discussed above, this makes it two crystal clear advantages for Kobe in two extremely important MVP categories.

I would also like to dispel the myth that Chris Paul has had less to work with this season than has Kobe Bryant. KB24 has only had Gasol and Bynum for a combined 62 games this season and never once at the same time. Meanwhile, Chris Paul has had David West for SEVENTY-SIX games. That alone, is more than the entire body of games played by Bynum and Gasol. One thing about David West, Chris Paul DOES NOT make him who he is. West has a sweet face-up game and jumper and that is the reason for his NBA success. Only 57% of his FGs are assisted. 51% of Duncan’s FGs are assisted. Has Parker made Duncan now as well? How about Dwight Howard? 68% of his scores are assisted. Can he not play without Jameer Nelson? Through and through, this is just argument is just a silly attempt at trying to downplay David West to prop CP3 up.

Kwame Brown was the starting Lakers center for 14 games. How bad is Kwame? This team: Fisher-Bryant-Radmanovic-Odom-Brown was the SIXTH WORST in the NBA in terms of +/- on the scoreboard (points scored minus points given up). What do you get when all you do is replace Kwame with Gasol? Well, you get the SECOND BEST line-up in the NBA in terms of +/- on the scoreboard. Kwame played in 23 games this year.

In addition, the Lakers also rolled out Ronny Turiaf in the starting line-up 21 times. As much as I love Ronny’s heart, he doesn’t hold a candle to Chandler or West and everyone who knows anything about the NBA would agree with that statement. If you’re keeping tally, 37 games were started by Turiaf and Brown.

Prior to the All-Star break and the Gasol acquisition, Odom was averaging 13/10 on 48% shooting. Despite his terrible play (for Lamar’s standards), Kobe had the Lakers in first place despite only 25 Bynum starts. Take your pick: 129 games with Odom, Gasol or Bynum in the line-up or 155 with both Chandler and West. All in all, either way, there is no way this is a significant advantage for Paul. In my opinion, it is, in fact, a slight advantage for Kobe.

Finally, and perhaps most importantly, we have to compare the storylines for both players. New Orleans missed the playoffs by one game last year. However, this SHOULDN’T be a surprise for people who have, at minimum, a half-baked memory. Paul missed 18 games last year, Peja missed 69 games last year, David West missed 30 games last year, and Chandler missed 9 games. What in the world did people expect to happen this year when they replaced Rasual Butler and Devin Brown with a solid veteran like Mo Peterson? What did everyone expect to happen when the Hornets had those same guys miss a combined total SIXTEEN games this year? For heavens sake, their starters missed 126 games last year. This year, those same guys missed 110 less games. They improved in the win column by 14. Why are people surprised? Let’s not pretend like this team magically transformed. They didn’t. They were damn good last year too. If it wasn’t for the injuries, they’d have been right up there with the rest of the elite Western teams.
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Asian Sensation · Jan 20, 2009

BrooksBall said:

How can you possibly put Granger ahead of Wade?

Granger is having a breakout year but is he really more valuable to the Pacers than Wade is to the Heat?

I'd like to hear your reasoning.
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Because I felt like it.

Maybe, maybe no.

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