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Early Astros Observations

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by MadMax, Apr 7, 2002.

  1. Rocketman95

    Rocketman95 Hangout Boy

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    Cool. Thank God for second job, you're site's starting to become addictive. :)
     
  2. Milos

    Milos Member

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    Fellas, calm down. Yes, I understand we do not live in the Yankees' perfect world where money grows on trees and whatever THE BOSS thinks he needs is immediately signed or traded for.

    The topic of the thread was "early observations", and these are mine.

    1) A speedy centerfielder, while certainly not as powerful as Ward, could still be just as vital to the offense while vastly improving the defense. A player like Stewart, for instance, hitting second could easily score 130+ runs between Biggio and Bagwell. While Ward could conceivably drive in that many, I can't see him possibly scoring more than 80 or so himself hitting that low in the order. So, as long as Stewart drives in about 80 himself (which is how many Biggio usually gets from the top of the order), we lose absolutely nothing in terms of total production from that spot in the outfield, while at the same time strengthening two postions defensively.

    2) Everyone seems to agree the bullpen is a mess; no need to elaborate on that since I fully expect help to come from within or outside the organization at some point this season (ala last year).

    3) About Ensberg, you are right, it is way too early to give up on him. For whatever reason though, I just cannot see him as an impact player. I know teams have won before without studs at 3B, and if a young player with a higher ceiling cannot be acquired, I would be fine with hanging on to Ensberg, provided he doesn't fall flat on his face like Truby did last year after his hot start at the plate.

    4) Finally, your points about us giving up prospects would ruin the team later on does not hold up for several reasons.

    a. I'm not talking about giving them up for trading-deadline vets like Fred McGriff. I'm suggesting young players like Rolen, Stewart, and Beltran...young guys who for whatever reason are no longer valued by their current teams. These players are just entering there primes and can still be part of the foundation of this team 5 or 6 years down the road.

    b. Also, that's what the luxury of having a deep, talented farm system is for; to keep the major league team stocked with talent. I'm not saying get rid of everyone to load the team for one last run at a title, but use some of them to bring in guys who can help our team now.

    Obviously, with only 25 roster spots, all of the talented players in a farm system cannot play for the team that originally signs them. This is especially true for the Astros, who have a ton of young guys who should be the center of this team for a long time (Oswalt, Miller, Hernandez, Berkman, Hidalgo, Everett...).

    For example, the rotation is already set at three spots for at least 3 years, assuming the three all fulfill their vast potential, at least until all three are ushered out the free agency door (like all of our star pitchers) by tightwad McClane. That leaves two spots available for guys like Redding, Qualls, Rosario, Pluta, and several others. Are we supposed to hoard all of these guys in AAA, worrying about the future?

    No, of course not. We follow the path of the model mid-market team of the 90's, the Indians. They have traded away tons of top prospects for established big-leaguers, yet remained competitive for the better part of a decade.

    Guys like Burnitz, Sexson, and Giles have gone on to thrive with other teams, but the team was content to let them go because they knew with an outfield stacked with guys like Lofton, Belle, and Ramirez, the redundant prospects were better used as trade bait to bring in help at a weak position.

    Realistically, of the postion players, the only three we will have to replace any time soon already have guys coming up behind them. When Biggio retires, Chris Burke should be ready to take over 2B. Soon after Bagwell and Ausmus will move on as well, and Berkman and John Buck should be able to take over for them respectively. I never suggested trading these three, because they are too valuable to the future of our team. I do think that with the surplus of young arms and outfielders, however, we can afford to make them expendable if it means adding help to the pen, CF, or 3B.
     
  3. gr8-1

    gr8-1 Contributing Member

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    I think St. Louis, any OF with Bonds, and a healthy Texas OF would have something to say about that.
     
  4. bobrek

    bobrek Politics belong in the D & D

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    Would you please explain what you mean here? You did write "all our star pitchers". I assume that you are talking about Johnson, Kile and Hampton. Oh wait, you couldn't be talking about Hampton because the Astros traded him and got a pretty good return.

    Perhaps you are also talking about the Astros star reliever - Wagner? Oh wait, he was signed to a long term contract (which some people criticize as being too much money - but how can that be with a tightwad for an owner?)

    Do you honestly believe the Astros had a shot in hell of signing Johnson? There was no loyalty on Johnson's part. Had they offered the same contract as the D'backs, he still would have signed with Arizona.

    The same with Kile. He took the money and ran to Colorado where he did little for them.

    Perhaps you are still thinking about Nolan Ryan. If so, that wasn't McLane's decision.
     
  5. haven

    haven Member

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    Hmmm... you lost a great deal of credibility by just mentioning the term "runs" as a good criteria for evaluating players. Runs and RBI are contingent upon the other players in the squad, even more than the player himself. For offensive production, refer to OPS. If you want to evaluate speed, look at things like doubles, triples, and stolen bases (and SB %).

    Production is a function of getting on base, and hitting for power. As I said previously... I'd consider a trade of Ward for Stewart straight-up. Someone like Juan Pierre... hell no.


    This is absurd. You're once again committing the fallacy of assuming that every prospect works out. The point of having a good farm system is not to acquire other players... think about the implications if you universalized this claim to all teams. The results would be non-sensical.

    The point of having depth in a farm system, is that not all youngsters are going to work out. In fact, the majority do not. The odds are against any particular guys. So only fools keep only one talented youngster at each position in the minors.

    If Biggio were 26... maybe one could consider trading a 2b prospect. He's not. He's 36. Ginter, Burke, Whiteman. One will probably work out. But the odds are against even two of them working out.
     

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