Can not believe Dwight can not do much today on the court. Yao was quite good on his last year before breaking his ankle again. What is wrong with Dwight? Lots of players can still play well with small injures.
It's his back, which is a major injury if you're a player defined by athleticism. He also stated he's worried about being able to function later in life so he doesn't want to out pressure on it, right or wrong. Not everyone can be Kobe or Adrian Peterson and play with high ankle sprains.
Exactly, that is a toss-away stat. There is no way Gasol, Howard and Plumlee are at the bottom of the list, and the Lopez brothers are so high. Yet further proof that so-called adv-stats for Defense leave a lot to be desired. and btw: just a few games ago, Plumlee was like #6 on that list. There is a reason why Coach K picked Plumlee for the National Team last year. And it's called, DEFENSE. Dude is like a 6'11 Chuck Hayes out there...very smart, mobile, fearless, and can't be moved.
Pretty much. Dwight is one of those guys who will suffer a huge dropoff once that athleticism is gone. Especially at the offensive end. Most of his scoring is off of dunks, putbacks, and driving around his opponent to the basket. He's basically David Robinson without the jumpshot or handles. Or a young Tim Duncan to bail his ass out and extend his career(and hand him 1 1/2 rings).
Agree. I would say in your chart that the Contest % alone is the best indicator in that chart. The Opp FG% per contested will be affected by both individual shot-blocking skill and help defense -- ie, how many were one-on-one vs collapsing help defense. Seems like the stat needs some type of metric vs your own team, which is hard because team defense is often quite different depending upon which anchor defender is in the game. Also, you'd want to see attempts per 100 possession. Great defenders allow the defense to funnel players to them. Of course, this is offset by offenses not challenging them, too. Just too hard to create metrics for individual defenders. The coaches are better deciding that than the analytics, imso.
i don't think they are toss away stats.. just because there are some holes in it doesn't make it totally useless.. can'be a coincidence that most big men known for their defensive prowess are pretty much all ranked high. and having watched Gasol and Dwight play this season, i'm not that surprised by their low rim protection numbers... their defense is simply not what it used to be, and at times felt like even below average... i don't know about Plumlee since i haven't watched him play that much.
For such an ambiguous generalization it seems remarkably specific. Any stats? Any data? Any links? Maybe accidentally type a number? This is meaningful insight. If you would be kind enough to share your data - if not the raw - output that would be helpful. A chart, a table, or maybe two lines even accidentally looking like they are somehow related? I'm exceedingly interested in the measurement of "zero" touch. No chance that's eccentric-infused hyperbole of course...no, no, can't be. That's wonderful that you've run the countless iterations around roster construction and commensurate salary cap implications. I think the alternatives you've put forth in your post should really be exami...oh, wait. Well, forget alternatives, I do see your point: These 15 guys - Dwight + Just A Guy = better team. No doubt! Right?! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Replying is a non-starter. Clearly you've done a great deal of work and data crunching so that you can pass definitive judgement. I'll take you at your word (b/c there are no numbers).
The thing I think the contest % gets wrong is this. Dwight is unusually low, but I imagine it only counts contest % of shots, not assists... So imagine for a second that Dwight contests a shot that actually leads to a pass because of his defense. He doesn't in turn contest the shot that was put up even though he did his job per se. It still doesn't explain the 57% FG% of the shot he did contest though, and you are right. It also doesn't count for any help defense. At the end of the day, the NBA as a whole is still trying to figure out how to measure defense analytically. It's getting better though. There are certain things all really good defenders do well and it is this: They allow low opponent FG% of the player they are defending. It's quite simple actually. Defense in the end is preventing the shot from going in.
If I'm reading the stats from that site correclty, Dwight is -1.5 pts per 36 mins worse Defensively; I'll assume we can call this a "net" number. Given his propensity to significantly exceed both expectations and regular season performance in each of the last 2 years of playoff performances, -1.5/36 seems trivial. Perhaps it's unwise to dismiss the data, as it clearly is weaker Yr on Yr (YoY), but succintly: 1) Net diff per 36 is trivial YoY (I'd assuming well within standard error owing to overlap with awful teammate performance) 2) He already showed us what he can do last yr in the playoffs and this years numbers, as noted above, are comparable 3) He's putting up the comparable numbers while playing under medical restrictions I sincerely hope we're not here in 3 mths with the joke on me (And the Rox) as the warning signs are here - I'm choosing to temporarily displace or postpone the concern in lieu of circumstances, excuses, and the fan in me.
Yeah, I probably did the stat a disservice by sorting by TOTAL points saved/given up instead of per 36 or per game. Once you sort by those numbers, the differences aren't huge, but that doesn't mean they aren't significant. The stat is normalized for everyone at the position in the "pos adjusted" So for instance someone with a 0, is a perfectly average center. This just shows he's below average compared to other centers so far as far as preventing points. So its more of a comparative tool than something to use to say "Dwight prevents x points." To look at it another way, if we had Gobert in for Dwight, we'd be 5 points better on defense, which isn't that crazy of a thought and quite a significant amount of points. Dwight still saves 3.5 points a game on his defense alone, Gobert just saves 8.5.
Here you go, this is probably a better representation of everyone's "defensive impact" and yes Dwight has a positive defensive impact AT THE RIM. Just not better than a lot of other people.
The degree is also very important when looking at comparative stats. So you compare Lopez adjusted at 0.5 , or Gortat who is close to a 0 adjusted. These numbers are close enough imo to pretty much be the same given sample size. It really doesn't say Lopez is actually a great defender even though he's like 7th on the list. It's a bell curve. There's a huge middle class, and very few on the fringes, the fringes being elite.
That's why I say % Contested is a good metric, especially when measured across the whole team. The offensive stats of FG% on contested shots is a pretty clear measure.
I don't think we should expect 20-10 from Dwight in the regular season, anymore. Given his offensive skills and his aging body, I think admirable would be in the range 14-16 ppg with 11-13 rebs. He's been decimated with injuries that have waned on his body. I think if he was a better offensive player, he could easily get to 20 points, especially with all of the free throw attempts. But that's not the case.
The alarming stat that jumps out is how well opponents shoot against Dwight despite contests - he rates near the bottom of rim protectors by that metric, which probably eventually relates to his net negative rating
