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Dwight is back to being one of the best defenders in the NBA

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by mollamar, Jan 7, 2015.

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TheRealAllpro Morey only fan

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http://m.espn.go.com/nba/story?storyId=12130492 If anyone has Insider this is the article that goes with the video

#21 TheRealAllpro, Jan 7, 2015

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Welcome back, Dwight Howard.

It's been a while since we've witnessed Howard anchor a top defensive team. To be exact, the last time a Howard-led team cracked the upper third in defensive efficiency he was starting next to Jason Richardson for Orlando back in 2010-11. It's been that long.

But here we are in 2015, almost three years since his lumbar microdiscectomy (translation: serious back surgery), and the Houston Rockets rank second in defensive efficiency in the NBA. Who saw that coming?

If you're looking for a dark-horse defensive player of the year candidate, it's Howard.

The Rockets' resurgence on that end of the floor has been one of the league's bigger surprises after they traded away a rim protector in Omer Asik and overhauled the roster with an oddball crew of youngsters in the offseason. The addition of Trevor Ariza on the wing helps, and so does James Harden's renewed dedication to that pesky other half of the game.

The Rockets aren't sniffing a playoff spot in the West without Howard rescuing them on the back line. Let's take a look at Howard's candidacy and the other candidates for DPOY.

First, consider the stark on/off splits for the three-time defensive player of the year. Overall, the Rockets have held opponents to 98.5 points per 100 possessions, the second-best rate in the NBA. But in the 730 minutes the Rockets have played with Howard on the floor, that sharpens to 94.4 points per 100 possessions, which would easily lead the league in stingiest defense.

Let's look on the other side of the coin. Without their big man in the middle, the Rockets have struggled to maintain their lofty status on the defensive end. When Howard sits on the bench, the Rockets' defensive rating deteriorates to 101.8, a rate that falls outside the top 10. And that gap is even more impressive once you consider that Howard has been banged up this season, missing time due to a sore knee and troublesome shoulder.

Howard's presence in the paint is essential. But even though he's not blocking shots like he did in his Orlando days, Howard's unique combination of strength, wingspan and agility has bothered opponents all season long. According to NBAsavant.com, Howard has held opponents to just 28.1 percent shooting when he's within 2 feet of the shot (18 of 64). That's the lowest rate among all centers in the league and just a smidge above Taj Gibson's league-leading rate of 27.8 percent. Keep in mind, Howard is 6-foot-9 in socks and typically guards centers.

Not only is Howard disrupting shots at a ridiculous rate, he also ranks fourth in defensive rebound rate (29.4 percent). He has the rare ability to both alter a shot and cement a defensive stop. Usually elite defensive rebounders like Kevin Love or Andre Drummond are hunting for the board rather than aggressively trying to protect the rim. Not Howard.

Howard has a way to go before he can be considered the favorite for his fourth defensive player of the year award, though. With 12 missed games already, he needs to stay on the floor. But Howard's elite combination of basket protection and defensive rebounding has the Rockets' mish-mash roster ranking among the stingiest in the NBA, which is why he deserves to be right in the thick of the DPOY race once again.

Who else is in the race? Here are the other early candidates.

The old stand-by: Tim Duncan, San Antonio Spurs

How many defensive player of the year awards has Duncan has won in his 18-year career? The answer, sadly, is zero. He should have at least two by now -- he was robbed in 2000-01, 2006-07 and probably 2005-06 -- but alas, Tim Duncan owns as many defensive player of the year awards as Tim Thomas.

This isn't a pity vote, however. Duncan leads the NBA in defensive real-plus minus by a considerable margin and has kept the San Antonio Spurs in the top five on defense despite losing Kawhi Leonard and Tiago Splitter for a combined 35 games. In fact, their top lineup last season (Tony Parker, Danny Green, Leonard, Duncan and Splitter) has appeared in just one game this season. One. The Spurs are where they are because of Duncan's understated dominance. It's astonishing that Duncan ranks sixth in blocks despite never leaving the ground on any of them (note: that is not a real stat).

The favorite: Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors

One would think that Andrew Bogut's longtime absence would send the Golden State Warriors into a defensive free-fall. But there they are, still at the top of the list. For that, the Warriors can thank Green, who's been an absolute monster at the 4. With quick feet, pesky hands and long arms, he can switch between bottling up a point guard at the top of the key and sizing up a bulky center in the lane. His versatility is astounding, really.

Check out these fancy numbers. According to SportVU data provided to ESPN Insider, Green has defended 38 drives by point guards this season, and those 38 drives have resulted in a measly 15 points, for an average of 0.39 points per drive. The league average on points per drive: 0.63. Also: Among the 18 players who have defended at least 75 post-ups, no one has held their opponent to a lower payoff than Green (0.68 points per post-up). The guy does everything.

Want more Green facts? He's stolen the ball from Kyle Lowry, Chris Paul and Isaiah Thomas, and blocked Brook Lopez, Dirk Nowitzki, Jonas Valanciunas and Russell Westbrook (twice). He ranks third in defensive real-plus minus, first in defensive win shares and second in defensive BPM. Pick any advanced defensive metric and Green's right near the top. For defensive player of the year, that's my leader in the clubhouse.

Honorable mentions: Andrew Bogut; Serge Ibaka; Anthony Davis; Paul Millsap; Robin Lopez; Roy Hibbert; Tony Allen; Marc Gasol; Andre Roberson.
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#22 J.R., Jan 7, 2015
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No way...

#23 dragician, Jan 7, 2015
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wow I had no idea that green was the favorite. Pretty interesting that the rox and gsw both have a DPOY and MVP candidate.

#24 shastarocket, Jan 7, 2015
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>The dominance of <a href="https://twitter.com/DwightHoward">@DwightHoward</a> <a href="http://t.co/Wc7mpZYSGl">http://t.co/Wc7mpZYSGl</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBABallot?src=hash">#NBABallot</a></p>— Daryl Morey (@dmorey) <a href="https://twitter.com/dmorey/status/552925905832927232">January 7, 2015</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

#25 J.R., Jan 7, 2015
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Hard to argue with the numbers. My eyeballs see something else, especially lately.

Hope Dwight can get healthy and dominaNT by playoff time.

#26 chievous minniefield, Jan 7, 2015
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Excellent. It's also good to see some stats that illustrate this. It's hard to tell all the defensive excellence when watching a fast-paced game.

Can we still stop feeding him post-ups, though, and go back to feeding him sick alleys and passes as moving to the basket? He had 6 turnovers in one of our recent losses.

I will definitely be watching him more closely on defense now, so I can more fully appreciate what you've posted. I was hoping we might get two Houston MVPs this year with Watt and Harden. The former should definitely get it, but ya know...the NFL. I'll still be glad to take one Houston MVP and two Houston DPOYs, though.

#27 SemisolidSnake, Jan 7, 2015

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Since the injury it just doesn't seem like he's been giving it his all defensively, but the stats suggest otherwise. I'm confused, but I'll take it.

Can't wait to see the results when he really goes after it.

#28 dream2franchise, Jan 7, 2015
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dream2franchise said: ↑

Since the injury it just doesn't seem like he's been giving it his all defensively, but the stats suggest otherwise. I'm confused, but I'll take it.

Can't wait to see the results when he really goes after it.
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Already saw that last year during the playoffs against the Blazers. If only we had this year's Harden playing last year...

#29 clos4life, Jan 7, 2015
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Texanasiafan said: ↑

So you go to buy a Ferrari and then disappointed because the trunk is not big enough for you to haul the furniture?
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More like getting a Ferrari and being disappointed that the thing is flashy, expensive, pretty, but in the end, doesn't make you look any better than you did with your Camry.

I wouldn't go that far with Dwight, but some games this season, he hasn't looked good at allllllll. He dominated in the playoffs last season, I wanted to see that Dwight all season....

#30 Kevooooo, Jan 7, 2015
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mollamar said: ↑

Dwight is back to being one of the best defenders in the NBA

http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:12129786

Here is JR's post later in this thread with the insider article:

http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showpost.php?p=9465373&postcount=22

Here are the stats quoted in the video:

Opponents shoot 28.1% when Dwight is within 2 feet. That is the lowest of any center in the NBA (Duncan=35.9%, Marc Gasol = 39.5%, Roy Hibbert = 44.5%)

Rockets as a whole give up 98.5 points / 100 possessions. Put otherwise, we are giving up 0.985 points per possession, which is good for second in the league to Golden state (96.2). For reference, the NBA average is 1.04.

The on / off numbers for Dwight are 94.4 points / 100 possessions when he is on the floor versus 101.8 points / 100 possessions when he is off the floor.

For reference, I looked it up, with Dwight on the floor, our 94.4 Defensive efficiency would be the best in the NBA. Let me say that again, with him on the floor (and his minutes overlap with Harden a lot, BTW), we have the NBA's BEST DEFFENSE.

With him off the floor, we are a slightly worse than average NBA defense.
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Looks like we're still above average with him off the floor.

#31 Space City, Jan 7, 2015
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Pau Gasol added some percentage points to his stats on Monday

#32 Verbal Christ, Jan 7, 2015
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Kevooooo said: ↑

He dominated in the playoffs last season, I wanted to see that Dwight all season....
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You probably think Popovich is the worst coach ever in the history of the NBA.

#33 Texanasiafan, Jan 7, 2015

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Space City said: ↑

Looks like we're still above average with him off the floor.
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He played 41 minutes in the game against the Bull.

I suggest you to check the tape for the 7 minutes when he was off the floor.

#34 Texanasiafan, Jan 7, 2015
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>NBA players shoot 28.1% when Dwight Howard is within 2 feet. Lowest rate among all centers. <a href="https://twitter.com/TrueHoopTV">@TrueHoopTV</a>: <a href="http://t.co/QeuJ9UkTvu">http://t.co/QeuJ9UkTvu</a></p>— Tom Haberstroh (@tomhaberstroh) <a href="https://twitter.com/tomhaberstroh/status/552975303585570817">January 7, 2015</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

#35 zeeshan2, Jan 7, 2015
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Excellent post by the Op. This why I love this forum...in spite of all the "Dwight coasting" crap.

Bull just quoted the same statistic on 28% shooting within 2 ft of D12...best in the NBA.
That is an amazing stat considering that most of those shots are at point blank range.

#36 meadowlark, Jan 7, 2015
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Problem is his body language and our perimeter defense is just ****, Harden is back to his old ways, Beverley costing the team by letting guys blow by him because's up too close...

#37 NL Rocket, Jan 7, 2015
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Texanasiafan said: ↑

He played 41 minutes in the game against the Bull.

I suggest you to check the tape for the 7 minutes when he was off the floor.
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I'm sorry, next time I'll ignore the stats and just focus on one 7-minute sample against one of the deepest teams in the league.

I'm not saying our defense isn't much better with him on the court, because it clearly is. I'm only saying it's wrong to say we're below average based on the numbers provided.

#38 Space City, Jan 7, 2015

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Dmo, Smith and Ariza in together are tough to score on

#39 Mr. Clutch, Jan 7, 2015
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Mr. Clutch said: ↑

Is he a leader tho?
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Umm Nope

#40 SF3isBack!!, Jan 7, 2015

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