Dug this up: Isolation Offense: Small Sample Size Centers with similar efficiency in isolation: Not Applicable Dwight only isolated 16 times this past season. He’s not an isolation player Post Up: 0.74 PPP 45.2% Centers with similar efficiency: JJ Hickson Dwight Howard is a lot like a novice dancer in the post. He knows all the twists and turns but he’s still counting the beat out loud as he moves through them. When he’s out of the studio, he rushes through his list of moves instead of working with the feedback his defender’s giving him. For better defenders, this amounts to a lot of wasted energy and also allows the defense to collapse in on him since it makes it harder for him to pass out of the post. He’s learning, but some of those just aren’t game ready yet. I wouldn’t call the Dwight post game a lost cause just yet, but Lakers nation is probably disappointed that the game released with the true ending as DLC content. P&R Roll Man: 1.29 PPP (Points per posession) 11.4% Centers with similar efficiency: Tyson Chandler, Tiago Splitter, JaVale McGee What kind of dumbass coach takes an elite pick and roll big decides to just not run that play in favor of throwing it to the equivalent of JJ Hickson in the post at a 4:1 ratio? The Lakers really should have hired a coach that... wait a minute, really? Okay, so the real reason this happened was that for much of the season, the Lakers were stuck with Steve Blake at PG (0.63 PPP, not sure there’s a worse starting pg in the league). If you scale for the other half of the play (the only centers with more efficient P&R numbers have CP3 or Lebron and low volume working in their favor) Dwight is the best P&R center in the league. In those few games where he did have Nash to work with, the tape usually looks like Dwight sets a pick, oh look Dwight’s at the rim. Dwight sets good picks. Dwight moves well to the rim. Dwight finishes above the rim. Dwight needs a point guard who can run the pick and roll. Spot Up Shooting: Small Sample Size Centers with similar efficiency: Not Applicable Dwight Howard only spotted up 14 times the entire season. He will not beat you with this. Offensive Rebounds: 1.12 PPP OREB/36: 3.3 Centers with similar efficiency: Greg Monroe Dwight gives you solid offensive rebounding and a strong conversion rate on those rebounds. He usually just beats his man with brute force and then goes back up strong. It is a rare combination and worth essentially four free points per game. Transition: 1.22 PPP Centers with similar efficiency: Kevin Garnett, Pekovic, Tim Duncan, Birdman There are things Dwight does really well. Running the floor is not one of them. He gets a few buckets by trailing the play due to his ability to play above the rim, but for the most part he’s looking to beat you in the half court. Defending Isolation: 0.84 PPP Centers with similar efficiency: Chris Bosh, Roy Hibbert, Andre Drummond Dwight is an athletic defender. Centers aren’t fast enough to drive on him. He’ll sag if he doesn’t respect the jump shooter to better protect the paint, but has no problem contesting if he feels that’s the more pressing concern. Defending P&R: 0.76 PPP Centers with similar efficiency: Al Horford, Marc Gasol, Greg Monroe, Andrew Bogut, Andre Drummond, Kendrick Perkins Howard rarely hedges on the pick and roll, which allows him to be in position to stop the roll man cutting to the hoop (in fact, he essentially never leaves the paint). This allows him to protect the paint but is going to give up steps to the guard as well as giving up wide open looks from midrange. This could be a problem if your guard defends like Steve Blake or Steve Nash. The point guard is usually sitting with a wide open 3 or a lane into the teeth of the defense after the pick. This may be on D’Antoni though if he’s telling Dwight to ignore his man if he goes to set a pick. Defending the Post: 0.58 PPP Centers with similar efficiency: Nobody’s even close No other center in the league can boast the combination of strong, long, and good footwork defending the post that Dwight can. This is the part of his defense that most justifies the 20MM he’ll be seeing next year. Defending Spot Up Shooters: 0.80 PPP Centers with similar efficiency: Joakim Noah, Chris Bosh, Jonas V Dwight does not follow his man out to the perimeter. This is a good way to get some open shots. A lot of centers can’t shoot so Dwight’s numbers aren’t too adversely affected by this and he is able to provide more help D on the interior. Proximal fg%: 43.5% Centers with similar efficiency: Right between Tim Duncan and Marc Gasol at 15th in the Dwight Effect For all the standing in the paint that Dwight does, you’d think he’d score higher on this list. This is probably a product of teams always designing their offenses to go away from Dwight. Dwight forces the extra pass and while Dwight’s still within five feet of the basket (will count against his proximal), he can only protect half of the rim Antwan Jamison and the rest of the Lakers defense. The perfect situation for Dwight: a strong P&R point guard who consistently fights over picks. A 3&D shooting guard. Having strong wing defense should allow Dwight the ability to contest the perimeter without essentially giving up penetration to porous wing defenders. 3 point shooting should help space the floor in the P&R on offense. Instead of the conventional play to get a stretch four for Dwight, I would think he’d fare better with a post presence. A post up 4 would draw the best post defender away from Dwight, allow him to spend more time under the rim looking for put-backs (you’d be hard pressed to find a team that can defend that pinch post and P&R with a single lineup), and gives his team another player with the size to defend down low so that he has more freedom to somewhat contest the perimeter. Link
What this doesnt take into account is how often he can challenge and alter shots with his presence. Shaq wasn't a great defender, but the mere fact he was in the paint made players take more difficult shots.
If Jones and Donuts really don't show any promise this year, then I'd be ok with an Asik for Millsapp trade to Atlanta at the deadline. I have and always will think that a guy with Millsapp's offensive skills would thrive with a dominant center like Dwight.
That link mentions "The Dwight Effect" which is an article mostly about proximal FG% and shot distribution against a group of 52 eligible big man defenders. I read that article last night, and there was one key fact that is overlooked in the stats that you just provided. Dwight scares people away from taking inside shots better than anyone else in the league. Here's a quote from the article: EDIT: Thanks for the stats BTW. It's a very good compilation. EDIT 2: Here's a link to the article if anyone's interested. Very good read.
These are only 2012-2013 stats, right? If so, that's why his post up numbers are so low. The Lakers didn't put him in the right position to succeed on post ups. They clogged the lane and didn't have the shooters to spread the floor. Made it easy for the defense to collapse on Howard.
Advanced stats like RAPM and ASPM have Dwight's defensive impact last year as pretty good unlike the days in Orlando where he was by far the best defensive player in the league. Let just hope his back is okay. And to get a better measure how he should perform when healthy, last season number is a bit inaccurate, to say the least. Dwight Howard 2011-2012 Post Up - 0.88 PPP, 57.5% (FYI - same year Bynum, 0.89 PPP, 54.6%) P&R - 1.36 PPP, 8.9%
I saw on Draftexpress' scouting video that Dwight had 59 and1's last year. I read somewhere that Harden had 72 last year. Does that make them top 2 in the league in that category?
Yeah it's the 2012-13 numbers. Gasol did a decent job stretching the floor. The thing is they never posted hm up.
Thanks for the post. Those points per post-up numbers are absolutely horrid. Let's hope he doesn't sulk too much about his post-up opportunities because he's just a rich man's Alonzo Mourning/ Tyson Chandler.
