Dwight Howard Aware That Houston Has Become More Attractive

Your difference of 600k is neglible for a player making that amount of money.

Also teams play more division games than any other and the Pacific division has 3 other teams that play in California. Whereas our division is mostly Texas teams.

Your 50/50 assumption is not accurate in my opinion.

My assumption would be playing for a Texas team 25% of games are taxed, while playing for a Cali team 75% of your games are taxed. Probably more favorable for Texas when considering divisions.

I'd estimate it is roughly equal amounts of money when excluding the 5th year.

Also the China endorsements are factor as well.

 

My point is that if we get Dwight I won't be as worried about him getting hurt the way it was with Yao. I remember watching Yao and every time he touched the ball or fell I was worried he would get or be seriously hurt. We wouldn't have that problem with Dwight

 

Not me, if we got Dwight I wouldn't be convinced that he was going to stay healthy until after the year was over every single year. A guy with only 1 healthy season in the last 5 isn't someone I would want to commit a max contract to. Been there, done that.

 

Prior to the last two years, Howard by season played (going backward) in 78, 82, 79, 82, 82, 82 and 82 games.

I'm not trying to say his back problems should be discounted, but he's been very healthy in three of the last five years and generally a healthy player until 2012.

 

I already mentioned the divisional difference, as well as the graduated lower tier taxes, as some of the fudge factors.

And yes, taken against how the whole of how much they're making, a 600k here and there isn't a big deal. These tax differences surely pale next to the size of the 5th year.

He can make China money in Hollywood just as well as in Houston. Look at Kobe's popularity in Asia. And he will get contracts in Hollywood that he won't in Houston. Stuff like CP3's State Farm and Blake Griffin's Kia, things that extend beyond the usual NBA player contracts for shoes or sport drinks.

Basically, if he's after money, Hollywood is the place to be, not Houston with the empty Toyota Center seats. The no state tax doesn't make up for it.

 

Yao Ming started out his career playing 82, 82, and 80 games until the injuries took over, how is that relevant to how he was once the injuries took over? I don't care about the player that Howard once was, only what he will be moving forward.

 

Bad health plus bad attitude. We've seen that somewhere before.

 

Interesting.

Now, take out that 4th year. Assume Dwight signs a 4 year deal with an opt out after the 3rd year when we have his Bird rights. So his 4th year is a re-signed Birds rights deal with a 5% raise off the 3rd yr salary and his 5th year is the second year of that contract with a 7.5% raise. Now, compare that scenario to a 5-yr Birds rights deal signed in Cali with the taxes, etc.

 

would love to know how the organization values Howard vs. Asik

 

I'd be interested in knowing that as well.

 

I would love Dwight on a max deal in Houston

 

Would we keep Asik around to play when Howard inevitably breaks down every year?

 

I ran the numbers, and the LA deal still comes out ahead.

Using the same assumptions and setups I used before, and then adding your modifications yields the following.

LA: 5yrs for $121,985,429.24. Taxes are $7,279,052.90. Take home pay of $114,706,376.34

Houston: 5 yrs using your setup, $113,156,320.07

 

let dwight play power forward. i don't want to see asik on the bench in favor of Dwight Coward.

 

I will add that there's no way he signs a 3yr deal. If I was his agent, I'd fire myself before letting that happen. If he gets injured or his play declines, he may never get another max contract. And all the tax talk is for naught if he gets traded while on his next contract, no telling what the state tax would be then.

That's yet another reason why athletes don't worry too much about state taxes, since there's no guarantee that they'll finish out their contract in Texas or California. Better to just sign for the most money and most years, ignoring the tax considerations, since you have no idea what state (and what state tax rate) you'll end up in over the life of the contract unless you have a "no-trade" clause.

 

Your first mistake is giving Dwight 7.5% in his first year of a 5 yr deal. Should be 5%. The second mistake is you compounded the 7.5% increases. They are simple increases not compound. You probably compounded the 4.5% increases too. They are all simple flat increases based on 7.5% and 4.5% of the first yr salary.

 

It's relevant because it means your stat of "1 healthy season in the last 5" was bull****. Unless you're saying you have to play 82 games to be considered a "healthy" sseason, which is asinine.

 

LOL @ all the guys here wanting Howard. These are probably the same guys who wanted Bynum, or the same guys who wanted Amare

Howard's had surgery like almost a year ago, and he's nowhere near better now. Look at Jeremy Lin for example, he tore his knee last year, and while he's not 100% he's playing on the court without any problems. That's the sign of a good recovery, and that his injury was really just a blip on the radar.

In Howard's case, he suffered injuries to his back, his knee and now his shoulder. He didn't seem to get better with rehab, his body looks like it's breaking down from all the beating he took. I mean, just think about it, when you sign a guy for 5 years you're hoping he'll be 100% healthy and beasting everyone of those years. We can't risk signing this dude and having him go Yao Ming 2.0 on us, look at how much Philly got boned for trading for Bynum.

I'd say pass, and let LA take the risk on him.

 

Fair enough, you are free to think that his shoulder and back problems will magically disappear as he gets older, just like I'm free to realize those problems only get worse with age.

 

Yes, you're quite right. I did make the mistake of compounding.

But don't worry, Crash didn't make my mistake, but he came the the same conclusion that a Bird Rights contract with taxes in LA beats a no tax, no birds right contract in Houston.

There's an extensive thread and discussion on it:

http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showthread.php?t=230401&highlight=income

So the conclusion is still valid, it would seem.