Dun Dun...Dun Dun...Dun Dun Dun..Dunnnnn! Bam! Another Melo thread!

Just when you thought it was safe to dive into Clutchfans again.....another Melo thread emerges from the depths of the darkness. The night before the first pre season game none the less. With the help of stats provided by basketball-reference.com, 82games.com, stats/nba.com and some links to you tube videos (I don’t have gif privileges....sorry), I would like to point out some skills and favorable tendencies that Melo offers the Rockets;
which could in fact make the Rockets a very formidable force.

Where is Carmelo best at (Play-Type)? Plays Rockets could take advantage of (by stats/nba.com)
https://stats.nba.com/players/ball-handler/#!?sort=PossG&dir=1
Pick-n-Roll (Roll-Man)
Year...............freq....................ppp..................NBA percentile.........page found
17/18.............6.9%..................0.84..........................10.1.......................pg 6
16/17.............2.5%..................0.90..........................27.1.......................pg 4
15/16.............1.7%..................0.97..........................42.5.......................pg 6
Pick-n-Roll (Ball Handler)
Year................freq...................ppp..................NBA percentile.........page found
17/18.............10.9%................0.86...........................64.3.......................pg 3
16/17.............16.8%................0.80...........................57.6.......................pg 2
15/16.............13.1%................0.80...........................57.2.......................pg 2
Isolations
Year................freq....................ppp...................NBA percentile.........page found
17/18..............18.1%................0.89...........................58.2.......................pg 6
16/17..............23.1%................0.99...........................78.3.......................pg 8
15/16..............23.7%................0.95...........................80.4.......................pg 6

Where as PnR with Melo might promote a mid-range shot, isolation plays fits in well with the Rockets scheme.
It’s possible Melo could do well with the Rockets perimeter shooting providing space. Yet to be determined.

Post Ups
Year.................freq......................ppp....................NBA percentile.........page found
17/18..............14.4%..................0.84...........................42.6%...................pg 5
16/17..............16.7%..................0.92...........................62.6%...................pg 1

Last season 17/18 rankings in post up plays by teams.
7th......Boston......8.4% freq
11th....Cavs.........7.2% freq
14th....Thunder.....6.4% freq
17th....Warriors.....6.1% freq
28th.....Houston....2.4% freq...Rockets could benefit from some Melo post ups vs mismatches. See video below.

Areas Melo shoots from......(from shot charts and basketball-reference.com
Melo has done well from the right corner 3’s (small sample sizes).
16/17 (Knicks): 50% on 0.2 of 0.3 (3PA’s)/ game. (78 games)
17/18 (OKC): 40% on 0.2 of 0.3 (3PA’s)/ game. (74 games)

Melo stats from left corner 3’s are not good; also small sample size.
Consistent 0.1 of 0.3 attempts per game year to year.

Carmelo mostly shoots 3’s from Above the Break
16/17 (Knicks): 35.7% at 1.8 of 5.0 (3PA’s)/ game. (78 games).
17/18 (OKC): 35.8% at 1.9 of 5.4 (3PA’s) / game. (74 games).
I believe 36% from 3 is still average from 3-pt territory from NBA players. Correct me if I’m wrong.

The dreaded mid-range shot.
17/18 (OKC): 39.3% on 2.3 of 5.9 (mid-range attempts) per game. (74 games).
16/17 (Knicks): 45.4% on a whopping 4.1 out of 9.0 (mid-range attempts) per game. (78 games).
CP3 sported a 41% freq mid-range shots while with the Clippers in 16/17, to 23% freq from mid-range last yr.
Please Lord, let Melo shoot closer to 16/17 if he continues to shoot from mid-range.........percentage that is.

Catch and Shoot 3’s
Carmelo in (17/18) shot 1.12 pps and 1.27 pps on wide open 3’s.

ITP (Inside The Paint) and RA (Restricted Area) are noted to be poor and few attempts the past two seasons.
Perhaps the Rockets could provide enough spacing for Carmelo to be more productive.


But ApacheWarrior, Melo plays no defense! from 82games.com
17/18 (OKC) Melo:.................................On......./..........Off..................Net
Offense: pts per 100 possessions: ......114.8..../..........107.9..............+6.9
Defense: pts per 100 possessions:......109.3.../...........107.6..............+1.7
which means the good Thunder defense last season only gave up 2 less points (1.7 pts) on the average
per 100 possessions defensively while Melo sat.
http://www.82games.com/1718/17OKC13.HTM

DWS in 17/18. basketball-reference.com
Harden................3.8 DWS
Steph Curry.........1.8 DWS
Melo....................2.5 DWS

17/18 Players-Tracking-Defensive-Impact by stat/NBA.com
Player...........DFGM.........DFGA...........DFG%
Harden...........2.1...............3.1...............69.5%
CP3................2.3...............3.2...............71.6%
Melo...............2.3...............3.2...............72.6%
Steph Curry....1.4...............1.8................78.3%.......Warriors go out of their way and beyond to hide Curry.

Defense from Areas (17/18)
Demarcus Cousins allowed opponents to shoot 59.8% from less than 5 feet.
Melo allowed opponents to shoot 54.1% from less than 5 feet.

Let’s get to some videos.
“Steph Curry Full Defensive Play 2018 WCF Game 1...” (7:04)
Rockets force Curry mismatch entire game but slow to attack the Warriors.


In the second video the Rockets attacked sooner.
“The Rockets Did (Almost) Nothing Different in Game 2.” (7:29)

(1:07) KD gets around screen quickly, so Rockets merely reset screen to get Harden vs Curry mismatch.
(1:25) Curry on Gerald Green, screen set but Curry avoids mismatch by running to CP3 who is in the area;
Rockets reset screen Harden vs Curry mismatch.
(1:48) Curry uses tremendous amount of energy avoiding Harden....Rockets still set up Harden vs Curry.
(2:08) Commentator notes that Warriors were trying to keep Curry hidden by having him guard a spot up
shooter in Ariza....Rockets read the play, have Ariza cut across the lane, Curry is forced to guard Eric Gordon,
who then sets the screen......forcing Curry on CP3.
(2:33) KD gets caught on screen.....Harden takes Curry down the lane. Must foul moment.
(Rest of video) poor Curry defense.
So, Melo will be targeted vs the Warriors on the perimeter....Curry everywhere on the court. Add Cousins who
is coming back from Achilles’ tendon repair. Welcome to the torture chamber of Mr. Harden and Mr Paul.

The concern is Draymond.
As you can see in this video located in the article, Draymond is the most important key to the Warriors defense.
“Draymond is a Defensive Genuis Unlike Any the NBA has Ever Seen.”
https://www.sbnation.com/videos/201...reen-defense-highlights-video-genius-warriors
But one can see Draymond free lancing and the Rockets taking advantage of his overplay. Many Rockets were
wide open in the series;Thus the need for confident shooters. In step Melo.

So can the Rockets Offense be successful, I say yes. But the Mid-Range needs to be restricted/limited.
I strongly believe the Thunder didn’t utilize Melo properly. Melo is a very difficult cover in the post. In this
video one can see how Melo demands double coverage.....especially vs lighter foes forced into mismatch.



From the post up play sets up a play I would like Houston to take from the Warriors. We see it in the video. “Warriors Split Action: Play We Love.”

(0:50) Klay enters the ball into the post, Iggy sets a flare screen away from the ball (free up Klay), Thompson
wide open shot.
(1:02) Ball entered into the post (KD), Draymond sets the screen, cuts to basket instead for easy basket.
-you get the picture-

Last video is of Melo vs Rockets: just so people can see Melo get chicken winged by Harden down the
lane..Melo recovers and still blocks the shot. Not many NBA players can do this.

Find it at the 2:33 mark of the video. You can also find Melo blow by GG in the post at the 1:45 mark.
This is what I want from Melo.....taking it to the rack and get fouled or find an open shooter. Don’t settle
for mid-range fadeaway. Bailing out the defender. In a recent scrimmage is see that Melo was 19 pts/16 asts.

Go Rockets!!

 

[QUOTE="don grahamleone,

@ApacheWarrior as a fan of yours I tried to understand everything, but I wish I would have read more commentary in-between the stats. I didn't always know what you were trying to point out. Let me know if you edit your OP... I'd happily read it again if you added commentary to the stats you dug up (lot's of time obviously went into that). If you explained what you thought those stats would lead too and explained what all the particular stats measured, I'd like it even more.[/QUOTE]
Fan of yours as well @don grahamleone

Rather than edit, I would like to expand on the original post. I felt I was running out of space....left some info
out.

PnR (Roll-Man), PnR (Ball Handler), Isolation are staple plays of most NBA teams in which to initiate a scoring
opportunity. Isolation and Post Ups have shown a the past to be inefficient scoring plays; but recently teams
have learned to force a mismatch in order to make the play type more efficient. Warriors use a post up play
to open up 3-pt shooters. Rockets force a mismatch to get a favorable outcome through CP3 or Harden
Isolation.

stats.nba.com (Play-Type-Isolations)
Harden (17/18)...........35.1% freq...............1.22 ppp...............95.7 (NBA percentile)......found on pg 8
CP3 (17/18)................29.3% freq..............1.10 ppp................90.8 (NBA percentile)......found on pg 9
Eric Gordon (17/18)....9.7% freq................0.99 ppp...............75.7 (NBA percentile).......found on pg 9
Nene (17/18)...............5.8% freq...............1.05 ppp................86.5 (NBA percentile)......found on pg 7
G Green (17/18)..........5.2% freq...............0.88 ppp................55.5 (NBA percentile)......found on pg 2
*Melo (17/18)..............18.1% freq................0.89 ppp..............58.2 (NBA percentile).......found on pg 6

*Many here including myself believe Melo was held back by the “Westbrook effect” while with OKC.
We might consider Melo with the Knicks in this situation:
Melo (16/17).................23.1% freq..............0.99 ppp...............78.3 (NBA percentile)......found on pg 8 (Triangle O)
Melo (15/16).................23.7% freq..............0.95 ppp...............80.4 (NBA percentile)......found on pg 6 (Triangle O)
Fits in well with Rockets imo.


PnR (Ball Handler)
Harden (17/18)...............35.8% freq............0.91 ppp.................76.4 (NBA percentile).....found on pg 8
CP3 (17/18)....................36.4% freq..........1.02 ppp..................91.7 (NBA percentile).....found on pg 8
Eric Gordon (17/18)........20.5% freq..........0.90 ppp..................74.8 (NBA percentile).....found on pg 8
*Melo (17/18)..................10.9% freq...........0.86 ppp.................64.3 (NBA percentile).....found on pg 3
*Good possibility Melo numbers could find an uptick with Houston due to good outside shooting providing
spacing Melo has rarely seen in his career.

BTW Gerald Green was: 12.3% freq............1.23 ppp................98.4 (NBA percentile)....found on pg 2

This is one reason I believe Eric Gordon can/will be used in a Jimmy Butler trade (or other). GG gets
promotion as Beverley role of bringing the ball up the court and handing the ball off to Harden/CP3 or Melo.
Then GG sets up as spot shooter. Or part of PnR (Ball Handler).



PnR (Roll-Man)
Tucker (17/18)..................10.1% freq..............0.55 ppp..................1.4 (NBA percentile)......found on pg 7
Nene (17/18).....................36.6% freq.............1.05 ppp.................45.4 (NBA percentile).....found on pg 5
Capela (17/18)..................32.1% freq.............1.34 ppp..................91.3 (NBA percentile)....found on pg 7
*Melo (17/18).....................6.9% freq..............0.84 ppp..................10.1 (NBA percentile)....found on pg 6

*Melo is not as good as Nene and Capela as PnR (Roll-Man); but better than Tucker.


Post Ups
Harden (17/18)..................1.8% freq................0.86 ppp..................47.1 (NBA percentile)......found on pg 6
CP3 (17/18).......................3.3% freq................1.06 ppp..................89.2 (NBA percentile)......found on pg 7
Capela (17/18)...................3.6% freq................0.63 ppp.................10.3 (NBA percentile)......found on pg 7
Nene (17/18).....................7.7% freq.................1.16 ppp.................96.6 (NBA percentile)......found on pg 6
*Melo (17/18)...................14.4% freq.................0.84 ppp................42.6 (NBA percentile).......found on pg 5

*So Melo blows other Rockets away in frequency of Post Ups.....running the Warriors “Split Action” works for the
Rockets since Melo would demand attention in the post and Rockets have good shooters surrounding him (Melo).

**Melo (16/17)...................16.7% freq................0.92 ppp................62.6 (NBA percentile)...pg 1 (Knicks-Triangle O)
Remember “Westbrook Effect” lowering (17/18) numbers.

What would help the Rockets run the “Split Action” play?
1) Good post up game....Melo probably offers a better post up game than Warriors have.
Depends on the health of D Cousins.

2) Good outside shooters.......specifically “catch and shoot”

3) Cutters

Brings us to the Cutter-play
New Rockets
MCW (17/18).....................5.9% freq...............1.16 ppp......................27.9 (NBA percentile).......found pg 2
James Ennis (17/18).........9.6% freq...............1.63 ppp......................97.5 (NBA percentile).......found pg 4

CP3 (17/18).......................0.8% freq...............1,00 ppp..................... ——..................................found pg 3
G Green (17/18)................2.2% freq................1.00 ppp.....................10.2 (NBA percentile).......found pg 2
Harden (17/18)..................1.0% freq................1.65 ppp.....................98.1 (NBA percentile).......found pg 6
E Gordon (17/18)..............1.7% freq................1.30 ppp......................60.4 (NBA percentile).......found pg 9
Tucker (17/18)...................2.6% freq................0.79 ppp.......................2.5 (NBA percentile).......found pg 4
Nene (17/18)....................20.0% freq...............1.11 ppp......................21.0 (NBA percentile)......found pg 8
Capela (17/18).................26.9% freq...............1.25 ppp......................47.7 (NBA percentile)......found pg 9


Just an FYI (to viewers)
Jimmy Butler (17/18).........5.3% freq...................1.55 ppp.....................93.4 (NBA percentile).......found pg 8
(as a Cutter). Plus Butler scores high in majority of the stats related to Houston needs.

Here is a video I wanted to add to OP. Shows Melo one year removed (17/18) highlights.

“Thunder PF Carmelo Anthony 2017-2018 Season highlights.”
(Video is 8 mins 20 secs)
(0:01) Melo in low post vs mismatch (Murray)......Millsap comes over to help. Melo demanded double team.
(0:17) Melo face up iso vs Millsap......blow by.
(0:22) Face up iso vs Millsap. Pump fake leads to easy mid-range shot.
(0:42) Melo catch-n-shoot 3 (made.......tailor made for Houston offense)
(0:47) Melo CnS 3 (made......diddo)
(1:02) long 2-pt attempt. This is the type of shot I want Melo to remove from his game.
(1:10) Melo face up on the block vs Tucker. Shoots over Tucker.
(1:17) Long 2-pt attempt. Remove that from your game Melo and you will flourish in Houston.
(1:22) iso vs Capela near 3-pt line. Rather Melo gets by Capela and draws double team.....open shooters ready.
(1:27) Melo back to basket on the block vs Harden. Mismatches for Melo on the block will work for Rockets.
(1:32) Melo iso vs Ryan Anderson near 3-pt line. (ill advised long 2)
(1.39) Melo back to basket in the low block vs Tobias Harris. Easy money.

-couple of FT line jumpers that I can live with-

(1:55) CnS 3-pt make. (Good for Houston offense/scheme this year)
(2:20) CnS 3-pt make. Diddo
(2:30) CnS 3-pt make. Diddo
(2:42) CnS 3-pt make. Diddo
(2:46) CnS 3-pt make. Diddo
(2:50) CnS 3-pt make. (Wide Open) Diddo.


Peace out my friend. Rockets will go for about 68 wins barring serious injuries.

 

I feel your pain. Many pundits want to lead the masses into thinking the Warriors are invincible; but a closer look
shows that the Warriors are not perfect. Example is Curry running all over the place to avoid being the point of
attack defensively.

If CP3 had stayed healthy....I strongly believe the Rockets would be World Champs. Tough break Luc MaM
was not healthy as well.

Draymond is good. KD and Iggy help that defense stay strong, but it’s Draymond that quarterbacks that defense
from in the paint. At times Draymond didn’t want to leave Capela which allowed a wide open 3-pt shooter
open. The others Warriors have to work harder when Dray stays home by the rim. I recommend that CP3
and Harden treat Draymond as a “Mike” linebacker in football. Recognize where and what Dray is doing
tells Harden and CP3 where to attack, Goes with Rockets read and react offense. Take what the defense
gives you.

Most regular season teams can’t match or stop the Rockets offense.
Only about 6 teams can beat the Rockets (barring multiple injuries)
Only about 2 teams that can beat the Rockets twice this same season year.

Thus I say only about 14 losses....again barring the injuries to major players.

Only thing derailing this is Melo shooting too many mid-range shots.
Summer pick up game/video had Melo shooting nothing but mid ranges shots. Oh my head!!

Recent team scrimmage had Melo going for 19 pts and 16 rebs. That the Team USA Melo I’m looking for.
Can’t wait for the season to start. Take care @adeelionaire