Am I the only one who feels like this organization is terrible at developing "project" players? Thabeet, Williams, Morris, etc all wasted because this team plays the proven guys and doesn't give a couple of minutes to develop the young kids. Only low-ceiling NBA-ready rookies like Chase and ParsHons play.
1. Project players always have a high fail rate. If you draft a guy because he has a good body and hoping that he can learn to play NBA basketball, it's going to have a lower probability of success than drafting guys who showed they can play NBA basketball. 2. Thabeet, Flynn, Williams and Jordan Hill were 2nd hand players picked up generally on the cheap after their first teams gave up on them. It's not that surprising if these guys don't pan out in their 2nd stop. If you choose 4 guys who have been to prison, these guys are going to have a higher probability of going to prison in the future compared to the general population. These 2009 busts were pretty much all of the "project guys" the Rockets have had lately (Morris is their own pick, but it's a bit early to tell about him). 2. The Rockets have had a decent record of developing young players: Brooks, Landry, Lowry, Patterson, Budinger etc. have all become contributors in the NBA. They were not all "NBA ready" since day 1 (Landry and Patterson didn't play until the 2nd half of their rookie season, Brooks didn't play much as a rookie. Even Lowry improved his skill set while with the Rockets).
Destined to be given NBA respect; NBA players respect little of their coaches innately so Charlotte saved a few bucks and cost themselves plenty. Again. Great move, MJ.
I think Charlotte's doubters will look foolish this coming season. I think their new coach is legit and in the mold of Tom Thibs. I expect them to get at least 30 wins next year, which is a major improvement.
I'd preface by saying I'd be happy if the Rockets took Drummond, mostly because his upside would be the highest of any player the Rockets have acquired since Yao (scary that it's been a decade...). That said, Drummond's demeanor and allegedly poor work ethic are such terrible red flags. How many low motor, unmotivated guys with great physical attributes have actually matured and fulfilled their potential? You can't learn to love basketball.
On the other hand, there are also still pretty effective players who coast on talent alone despite being lazy like Randolph, Odom, or even someone like Javale McGee. Say what you want about how dumb McGee is, I would love someone like Javale McGee out of the draft.
I agree that is the right comparison I just don't get how Drummond has all this hype as potential top 5 pick and maybe falling to 6 at the worst and yet Jordan fell to the second round. They both had disappointing college perfomances after what was expected of them coming out of high school, very similar size, similar athleticism, defense first, and post games comparible to raw beef. Can someone explain to me why Drummond is considerd miles ahead of Jordan draft prospect wise especially when this is considered one of the deepest drafts in years?
I won't go as far as 2nd round, and I'd be gladly picking him up in mid-late first round. He's a good defender and decent rebounder, so he WILL see quite some minutes as center here. His motor is an issue, but he's a decent value with high upside. You grab him if he ever falls to #14.
He has displayed good defense on pick and role, has held his ground in the post defensively, and is a good shot blocker. His offense sucks. Very good chance he'll stick in the NBA for his defense even if offense never comes.
I think the difference is defense. Jordan is raw on both sides of the floor except blocking shots and easy dunks especially in his college year, while Drummond is a very good defender. That's why I think he'll be decent but not worth a top pick.
I think people discounting Drummond's potential are off-base. But that's the great thing about opinions. He's a clear lotto pick to me. No, measurements aren't everything. But they do matter. They are, generally (always?) a pre-requisite. And boy does he measure up. He measures favorably compared to pretty much every solid big to come into the league in a while. Favorably to Dwight. Better than Cousins. Better than Lopez. Better than Stoudemire. Comparable to Oden (who did produce in the little time he was healthy). Better than Horford. Favorable to Noah. So then it's a question of performance. He underperformed at Connecticut, clearly. But I think people are overlooking the situation. Calhoun was in and out all year. The team offense was very very very heavy guard oriented. And Andre came in late. He didn't commit fully to UConn until August, as there was some back and forth on his age and class. My view is that this is a kid who was pulled multiple directions by his "handlers", then ended up in a bad situation, that at just 18 when his season started he didn't handle well. His FT%? Horrible. Is there hope for someone who shoots FT's that badly? I'd argue of course. Shaq, Duncan, a ton of big men have been terrible FT shooters. But there's no arguing that he was horrid at his FTs, and it is a red-flag. His work-ethic? Still a question mark. But since his season ended he's worked out like a beast, dropping 22+ lbs, coming into the combine testing probably better than any other player on the whole. His workouts have been impressive. So the question becomes will he go back to semi-half assing it when he gets paid? It's a possibility, sure. Drummond is a multi-year project, no doubt. He's young, and has some question marks, no doubt. But he is not without skill. You look at Thabeet out of UConn and that was a clear bust waiting to happen. He had height. That's it. He didn't have athleticism much less simple body control at times. His height worked in the NCAA's but you knew would be exposed in the pro's. And Thabeet didn't exactly produce great stats in college either. Solid 3rd year stats, especially the blocks, but not great. Drummond is a entirely different and much better prospect. It's on him. And I'm putting a lot on his situation and the hope that as he ages and matures, and listens to himself more, his professional coaches more, and his handlers less, he will develop into a very very good pro. But I could be wrong. jopatmc, signature bet or tip-jar bet, with over-under at the stats you suggest above?
He has good height and great wingspan, but his standing reach and max vertical are not as exciting. I wouldn't say he measures better than those players you mentioned. He's one of the group.
He measures better than some, favorable with others, and slightly worse than some.... depending on the category. Not every prospect can be the same across all categories. From a measurement perspective, he is measures up great. That is not the question mark.
Yeah, this whole idea that rookies on bad teams can develop because the team has nothing to lose is bogus. I can't think of one example where a young rookie came in, played horrible, and was allowed to stay on the floor to develop. If he's not contributing positively he'll be benched or sent to the D- League. Like T-Will, like Morris, like Thabeet, being a lottery pick does not gie you a right to minutes they still have to be earned. Even on bad teams, minutes represents money to players. So players, even on bad teams, would get extremely PO'ed if a rookie was just handed minutes despite performance.
^^ I'd note that there probably are examples where rookies were at least given a year despite bad general stats, especially on a per minute or efficiency basis. But on the whole, certainly a bad pick is a bad pick. If Drummond were to come in and suck, then I think certainly his minutes would be reduced and d-league would be a possibility. If for nothing else, then for the player's own development. As the Rockets have done. As happened to Thabeet, for example - though it didn't work. I don't believe this will happen with Drummond. If nothing else, I can see him being an efficient rebounder and defender immediately, though he will have foul problems his first year.
What do you do with a center that can't hit 30% from the charity stripe? That's absurd. jopatmc is concerned with "mental issues," and we have no better example than Drummond trying to hit a freethrow, IMO. Shaq, who's struggles at the line, both in college, and in the league, are well documented, averaged over 50% at LSU, and retired averaging .527% in the NBA. Simply awful, and Shaq is a pretty smart fellow. Should we really expect Drummond to suddenly "get" how to hit the easiest shot in the game? To me, Drummond sounds like a nice pickup early in the second round. Someone you get in hopes of providing you with a solid 5 off the bench, who might, might develop into something more.
Drummond has the best size and athletic ability of anyone since Howard at the 5. His ceiling is much higher than Cousins. His character/motivation issues are dwarfed by the baggage Cousins brought with him. He has the lateral quickness and speed to stay with point guards. He has the size and strength to hang with Bynum. That said he certainly is not risk free and will need a couple of years to develop. http://www.nbadraft.net/players/andre-drummond http://www.nbadraft.net/players/demarcus-cousins http://swishscout.com/?page_id=1632
He probably will fall in the draft, if Portland passes on him at #6. He may fall to them at #11 or he ends up with the Bucks or 76ers.
