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Drew Litton Blog on Carmelo

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by _RTM_, Aug 21, 2010.

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  1. roslolian

    roslolian Member

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    How is efficiency calculated? I tried looking for it in the link you provided but it wasn't discussed.

    If you rank players by TS% (which is the real measure of efficiency IMHO), Melo is actually just average.
     
  2. BetterThanEver

    BetterThanEver Contributing Member

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    It's on another page.

    http://www.nba.com/statistics/efficiency.html

    It incorporates the defensive stats with shooting. It adds rebounds, assists, steals, blocks and subtracts missed field goals, missed free throws, and turnovers.

    Stephen Jackson scored 20.6 pts a game, but his efficiency is only 16.9. He is not a strong rebounder, or a good shooter.

    Rajon Rondo scored only 13.7 pts a game and has a 62.1 FT%. He was more efficient than Jackson, because he contributed 9.8 assists, 2.3 assists, and has a good fg%.
     
  3. intergalactic

    intergalactic Contributing Member

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    The NBA efficiency stat is misnamed. It's based on total stats, not stats per possession. Melo's high ranking there is really just another way of saying that he gets the ball a lot.

    Here are some numbers that are pased on stats per possession.
    Melo's playoff TS%: 52.3%
    Melo's career regular season TS%: 54.4%

    Melo's best single season TS% (2007-2008): 56.8%
    Melo's best season playoff TS% (2006-2007): 58.2%

    Compare Kevin Martin
    Career regular season TS%: 59.8%
    Playoff TS%: 59.2%

    KMart has been to the playoffs only once (2005-2006), which is a reasonable criticism, but KMart's career average TS% is better than Melo's best year.
     
  4. BetterThanEver

    BetterThanEver Contributing Member

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    The difference between Kevin Martin and Carmelo in the NBA efficiency stat is mostly due to the rebounds, steals, blocks, assists, and turnovers. Martin does contributes so little, when he is not shooting.

    Career Numbers
    Martin
    (3.6 rebs + 1.0 stls + 1.9 asts + 0.1 blks) - 1.7 tos = 4.9

    Carmelo
    (6.2 rebs + 1.3 stls + 3.1 asts + 0.4 blks) - 3.1 tos = 7.9
     
  5. BetterThanEver

    BetterThanEver Contributing Member

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    Melo's efficiency points from the other cats is nearly double Martin's contributions for their career.
     
  6. BetterThanEver

    BetterThanEver Contributing Member

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    Never mind. I had the numbers right the first time.

    7.9 for Carmelo vs 4.9 for Martin.

    It's still a difference of about 60%.
     
  7. Vivid

    Vivid Member

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    TS%, like any other stat, can be be manipulated to produce misleading results. I find it suspect that you don't consider efficiency a decent standard for efficiency but you consider TS% a REAL measure of efficiency. Why? because some article told you that the stat they used (TS% in that case) is the best? Because a lot of hype was made of it when Martin was brought in. Is it because the top 15 players in EFF really seem to be the top 15 efficient players (sans Melo of course because he is who we use the stat to describe). Look, ts% is a tool like any other stat, but consider anything a "true measure" and you really do yourself and basketball a disservice. TS% top 15 includes world beaters like Oberto, Walker, and Dampier. In fact a couple seasons ago Yao would be top 15 in eff but he isn't even a top 15 center in TS%, ranked behind beasts that likes of Hasheem Thabeet, Channing Frye, Chris Andersen... but ranked ahead of losers like Brook Lopez and Duncan. Speaking of Duncan, this guy is really inefficient, he isn't even a top 30 center in this league TS% wise. In fact he is close to losers like Melo, Wade and Kobe. By the way, Kobe sucks TS% wise, barely a top 30 shooting guard, well behind efficient players like Anthony Morrow, 5th, Kyle Korver, 3rd, and the most efficient player of all, Billy Walker, 1st. Look, if Eff benefits those that have a high usage rate, TS% definitely favors those that get few minutes. Give me a top ranking EFF guy over a top ranking TS% any day. But don't think for a second you can use either stat as the end all determination of efficiency.
     
  8. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

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    The NBA EFF metric doesn't really measure "efficiency". Its a misnomer. Carmelo also has a high PER ("Player Efficiency Metric"), but that's not what we strictly mean by efficiency.

    NBA EFF and PER are composite stats that penalize players who are inefficient, but also award players who score a lot. To put it another way, it depends on both efficiency and usage. Its not a pure efficiency stat.

    Pure efficiency stats are ratios -- they measure things like points scored per shot attempt, or points contributed to team per "possession used", or turnovers committed per "possession used". Examples: ORTG, TS%, eFG%, 3FG%, FG%, FT%, TOV%.

    ORTG (listed on basketball-reference.com) stands for Offensive Rating, and its the individual player analog to Offensive Efficiency at the team level. It incorporates shooting, rebounding, turnovers, assists into a single, pure efficiency stat. TS% is true shooting%, and it is proportional to points scored per scoring attempt (accounts for field goals and free throws). These are the key efficiency metrics to look at.

    And, by those measures, Carmelo is indeed about average. Amongst offensive stars, he's below average. If you look at all the players who've averaged at least 22 ppg over the last two seasons, he ranks 11 out of 12 in both ORTG and TS% (Monta Ellis being last).
     
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  9. wnes

    wnes Contributing Member

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    Good one. And we barely touched Melo's DRtg.
     
  10. t_mac1

    t_mac1 Contributing Member

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    people REALLY overrate efficiency at times.

    kobe bryant is NOT the most efficient player in the world and he has won the last 2 titles. he shoots 45%, and worse in the first round and finals series.

    the only perimeter players who are TRULy efficient are lebron, wade, chris paul, deron, and a few others. that's really it.

    kobe, melo, pierce, joe johnson... eh.

    i think you have to take into account the entire production that a player gives. melo gives you A TON of scoring (and shoots at a great % for a perimeter player 47%... however he needs to cut down on his 3s b/c he's nto a good 3pt shooter). he rebounds fairly well (and that can always improve).

    ultimately, what i'm trying to say is you should look at the overall package. if a player is inefficient in terms of scoring, but he puts up huge production in playmaking and rebounding and defense, you should overlook it.

    again, ENTIRE PACKAGE.

    i dont' think melo has the ENTIRE PACKAGE, but he's still an all-star in this league, and we need one. if we can get him, i guess might as well. he's not my first choice, but he seems like the only player we can get realistically right now.

    EDIT: say for kmart. he's pretty efficient, but you wouldn't take him over kobe bryant who shoots 40%. why? b/c kobe offers you other things kmart never will. all i'm saying.
     
  11. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

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    Yes, but I think still more people underrate it.

    In the end, what matters is how you make the team better. Some players have poor individual efficiency, but because they draw so much attention and are very good at getting open shots for teammates they lift the overall efficiency of the team. Other players might have high individual efficiency, but if they have no shot-creation capabilities and are totally dependent on teammates they may actually depress the overall efficiency of the team. Figuring out whether a player will help or hurt your team's efficiency is tricky business, but I think the Rockets probably have as good a handle on it as anyone else. They have people in their organization that have looked at the efficiency vs usg question in great depth.

    As an aside, ORTG and DRTG actually originates from work by Dean Oliver, who is now the lead stats guy for the Denver Nuggets.
     
  12. t_mac1

    t_mac1 Contributing Member

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    i agree. you just have to put the entire statline and what the players actually do on the floor into perspective.

    but it sems EVERYBODY and their moms on this board scream efficiency every damn time.

    melo is one of the few players who do draw double teams below the 3pt line (only a few draw doubles beyond the 3pt line anyways).

    if we do get him, i wish he would reduce his 3pt attempts, less bad shots aroudn the rim (hence why he gets blocked a lot), and rebound better. he's strong enough to get 9 rebounds a game.

    we don't need him to be an elite defender, he can be what he has been. that's fine with me. but the other stuff i mention, we need him to do that if we want to go to another level with melo.
     
  13. anchel

    anchel Member

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    Look at the guy under Melo.
     
  14. MrButtocks

    MrButtocks Contributing Member

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    That lineup lacks 3pt shooting. Only Martin can shoot and he's also one of our main scorers. Spacing is incredibly important for an offense, which is why Phil Jackson insisted on Ariza developing a 3pt shot despite Fisher and Kobe being very good shooters. Yao would be crowded on every play.
     
  15. t_mac1

    t_mac1 Contributing Member

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    exactly, which is why i prefer trading kmart over brooks.

    brooks give us 3pt shooting, speed, quickness, ballhandling (althoug subpar passing), but lowry can provide that.

    chase can always slide in at the 2 or shane can guard the better scoring 2s.
     
  16. MrButtocks

    MrButtocks Contributing Member

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    I think that's the best course too. Martin can score in bunches and get to the FT line, but Melo takes those responsibilites away. And because Martin's such a horrible defender I just don't think he's a great fit next to Melo. A Brooks/Battier(Lee?) backcourt works much better than a Lowry/Martin one.
     
  17. intergalactic

    intergalactic Contributing Member

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    Durvasa's post states it well, as this seems to be boiling down to raw stats vs. efficiency (not the "NBA efficiency" which is misleadingly named) again. Summing up the usual arguments -- higher efficiency is better, but with the caveat that low usage players tend to have high efficiencies due to feeding off the stars.

    With that out of the way, it's important to remember that Martin only makes $11 million. If we get Melo we will probably have to pay him $20 million. At that salary Melo should not just be better than Martin, but light years better.

    Think about the other players in the league paid $20 million. Who is Melo better than?
     
  18. Saeculum

    Saeculum Member

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    I know 'Melo's been a bit of a knucklehead, but as others have said, he's definately improved. Plus, he only 26 and definately has room to improve on and off the court. Some stats:

    Per 82games.com Melo was 4th in 09-10 in production per 48 clutch minutes
    Link : http://www.82games.com/0910/CSORT11.HTM

    From Hollinger's PER on ESPN, his 5-year average is 21.394 and his Career TS% is 55.4
    Link: http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/statistics/

    He does only shoot 30% from 3, but we should be pretty solid from 3 at other spots.

    Also yahoo sports is reporting : "Privately, Anthony has expressed more enthusiasm over joining the Houston Rockets than the Knicks, sources said."
    Link: http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news;_ylt=Aqtv6Y7RJG4lJB7tWSCBUcy8vLYF?slug=aw-anthonykroenke082410

    Maybe, he just wants leverage over Denver, but still, it seems like we have to make this deal happen. Melo's pretty much a consensus top 5 guy (and I don't see how you could have him lower than 7th) and let's not forget that 2 of the others play for the same team.
     
  19. raleigh

    raleigh Member

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    I haven't done it in a long while, but you can multiply ORtg by USG% and get a much better idea of how efficient a player is.
     
  20. raleigh

    raleigh Member

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    EDIT: I forgot that I had decided it made more sense to multiply USG% x TS%.
     

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