Dragic or Lowry? The real key is Lee over Martin

Hello all,

Insomnia is my Achilles Heel and I found myself going through advanced stats late last night once again, specifically looking at how the Rockets fare with Dragic or Lowry in the lineup since that seems to dominate talk these days. It's interesting stuff, and what it boils down to is the fact that they're both pretty equal. The difference is who the starting 2-guard is, as you'll see.

The following stats are from basketballvalue.com and representative of games through April 2.

The starting lineup of Lowry-Kevin Martin-Chandler Parsons-Luis Scola-Samuel Dalembert produces an offensive rating of 101.16 and a defensive rating of 99.3. That group has played 441.90 minutes together (easily the most on the team) and has scored 874 points on 864 possessions (1.01 points per possession). It has surrendered 847 points on 853 possessions (0.98 ppp). They have an overall rating of 1.86, which is actually third-worst on the team in regard to lineups that have played together at least 40 minutes this season.

The lineup of Dragic-Courtney Lee-Parsons-Scola-Dalembert has played 135.62 minutes together. With Dragic in the starting lineup instead of Lowry (and Martin, too, as we’ll see later), the Rockets are more proficient offensively and defensively. Dragic’s lineup has an offensive rating of 113.15 and a defensive rating of 97.99. It has scored 284 points on 251 possessions (1.13 ppp), and surrendered 244 on 249 (0.98 ppp). More telling, it has an overall rating of 15.16, which ranks fourth on the team in regard to lineups that have played together at least 40 minutes this season.

Two things to take into consideration before we move along: Lowry’s lineup has played considerably heavier minutes. Also, his backcourt mate Martin is easily the poorer defender when compared to Lee, Dragic’s starting backcourt mate, and that cannot be understated. Lee is a terrific perimeter defender. Martin is not. More on this later.

And then there’s this interesting nugget: a lineup of Lowry-Lee-Parsons-Scola-Dalembert is more effective than either of the previous two lineups initially discussed. This lineup has played a mere 53.15 minutes together, but has produced an offensive rating of 111.88 and a defensive rating of 93.20. It has scored 113 points on 101 possessions (1.12 ppp), and allowed 96 on 103 (0.93 ppp). Its overall rating? 18.68, third on the team in regard to lineups that have played together at least 40 minutes this season.

So, essentially, if you give Lowry Dragic’s four other starting teammates, the lineup will be a bit less efficient offensively but certainly more so defensively. What we’ll find out is that it’s not a matter of Lowry or Dragic; it’s a matter of Lee over Martin as the backcourt teammate.

Another note … the top lineup in regard to overall rating has Dragic in it. A grouping of Dragic-Lee-Chase Budinger-Patrick Patterson-Dalembert has an overall rating of 29.48, though it has only played 45.4 minutes together. They have an offensive rating of 117.28 and a defensive rating of 87.80, having scored 95 points on 81 possessions (1.17 ppp) and surrendered 72 on 82 (0.88).

One final tidbit before we draw to a conclusion: The Rockets’ current starting lineup of Dragic-Lee-Parsons-Scola-Marcus Camby has an overall rating of -4.08. That’s horrendous. The lineup has played 81 minutes together, and has an offensive rating of 106.12 and a defensive rating of 110.20, having scored 156 points on 147 possessions (1.06 ppp) and allowed 162 on 147 (1.10). Obviously this is a lineup still trying to get adjusted with the addition of Camby, but it’s notable how far the defense has slipped once Camby was substituted in for Dalembert.

So, through all that mumbo jumbo, it comes down to this: It really makes little difference in the grand scheme of things whether it’s Dragic or Lowry as the starting point guard. The key is who’s the starting shooting guard, and it’s clear that Lee is the one constant in the top lineups. It also gives reason as to why Morey was so adamant that Lee would return next season and why he was more or less reserved to the fact that Dragic's situation is out of his hands and, by implications, he is bracing that he is all but gone due to some team likely overpaying.