To think about it logically, the unprotected #5 is basically Kuminga vs #18 let’s say Garuba. Is this worth sweating over ? I know it might not be those two particular players, but the difference is not that huge in my opinion.
yes, in a manner of speaking. Spoiler: The Lottery drawing is a number combination of 4 balls There is actually 14 balls numbered 1 to 14, and the machine spits out 4 balls, one at a time. Example, the first drawing might spit out this 4ball combination: 14-3-10-7 whichever team is assigned that combination (in any order) is the winner of the first drawing. Then they put all 14 balls back in the basket, and do the second drawing for the 2nd pick. the only reason the odds change for each drawing is because you can’t win twice. Whoever wins a drawing, one of their combinations can certainly come up again, but it’s treated as no-winner, and they redo it, until someone else wins. I don’t understand this. What if you won the first drawing? The 52% is the overall chance that you will be a winner of one of the 4 drawings. If the Rockets don’t win any of the four drawings, the lottery is over and they are assigned the 5th pick Consider maybe you are over-complicating it in your mind. There are only 5 possible outcomes for the Rockets. We either win one of the 4 drawings, or we are assigned best pick of what’s left = the 5th pick.
You can see it anyway you wish. 100% of nothing is nothing. ______________________________________ A person can put the remainder of the field (outside of top 4), 48% all on #5. Or a person can put the remainder of the field (outside of top 4) 48% all on #14. Or a person can divvy the remainder of the field (outside top 4) 48% between picks 5 thru14. Makes no nevermind to me......because the Rockets won't get that pick beyond #4. 100% of nothing is nothing. You can cheer it becoming Miami's pick. I don't care. I'm just like, nmph. Because people amp up the 48% (outside top 4) and put it all on the 5th position.....it doesn't make it greater than when it was divvy'd up and spread over picks 5-14. It's still a 48% chance the Rockets fall outside of top 4. As Clutch posted......52% is the only number that matters.
No, a person can't, unless they want to be objectively wrong, with no scenario or line of thinking in which they are correct in any sense. I've been following this in stunned silence, and have reached the conclusion that Apache has to be trolling everyone at this point. There is no way that he continues to not understand why and how he is wrong after a dozen people have tried, in good faith, to explain to him how there is no way for the #1 slot to draw a pick lower than #5. Tip of the cap, Apache, you definitely had me going.
it's really not. Unless someone makes a mistake and takes Kuminga in the top 4. This draft really is top 3 then a steady drop in talent.
