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Draft odds, A statistical analysis

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by IVFL, May 28, 2021.

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  1. Rudyc281

    Rudyc281 Member

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    Exaclty.

    This is what I’ve been saying all along.
     
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  2. ApacheWarrior

    ApacheWarrior Member

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    Yes, as I remembered it, the worst records would get no worse than somewhere around 4.
    I thought maybe the rule may have been changed when the worst team amount of ping
    pongs were increased to the 2nd and 3rd spots. As a means to discourage tanking.

    But when I was running somewhere in April, all I can think is that the Rockets did not
    clinch that worst record.

    It's about the argument of glass half full vs half empty. Negative Nancy's want to project
    48% being greater than 52%; by saying the 48% (outside of top 4) is greater than the 14%
    given to the #1 spot. So there we shouldn't have tanked.

    What I'm telling them is the sum of each percentage of the top 4 spots is greater than
    the sum of 5 (or anything outside of top 4).

    I choose to favor glass half full.....focus on the 52% (not dissected or shrunken.
    As I mentioned to another member, tankathon notes the greatest probability
    of the place the Rockets land in is 3.7 (within that 52%.....top 4 spots).....not in
    the 5th spot which is the 48%. Even though 48% is greater than 14% for 1st and
    greater than 14% for 2nd and greater than 14% for 3rd and greater than 10% for 4th.

    Dissecting the 52% is meant to give the appearance that our chances are less.
    As Charlie Chan once said, "the timid man does not win the lottery."
    Well we were not a timid team......we bought our ticket. It doesn't guarantee
    a top 4 spot but it beats getting bounced in the first round very ugly or just
    missing the playoffs. O% chance of getting top 4 spot. IMO.

    Negative Nancy's can keep hoping the Rockets land in that 48% range.....more power to them.
    I wish to continue hoping we land in the top 4 where the greater chances lie. Coin slightly
    weighted to land in top 4 positioning.
     
    #62 ApacheWarrior, May 30, 2021
    Last edited: May 30, 2021
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  3. ApacheWarrior

    ApacheWarrior Member

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    cont'd

    And let us not forget that all of this is set up originally because CP3 always gets hurt
    in the playoffs, along with Harden/CP3 falling out.

    50% chance CP3 will get hurt around playoff time. Injured twice on the last
    four playoffs. Many (being myself) feel CP3 didn't put out for the
    18/19 playoffs because he was afraid of getting injured. Didn't show up
    until that final GSW game.....a no show the other 5 games.
     
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  4. Dr of Dunk

    Dr of Dunk Clutch Crew

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    In the back of my mind, I've always thought this as a possibility. lol.
     
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  5. Little Bit

    Little Bit Member

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    Get your money ready. ;)
     
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  6. hakeemthagreat

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    Have the criticism toward Tilman, Stone or Silas is left over Morey fans projecting failure on the team because they’re still butt hurt over Morey not being here. They're also upset Stone wasn't dumb enough to trade Harden for Ben Simmons. That would've been a atrocious move and I'm glad Stone didn't fall for it
     
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  7. Rockets34Legend

    Rockets34Legend Contributing Member

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    June 22nd couldn't come any faster....
     
  8. burlesk

    burlesk Tries hard
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    Cool, yes, the Rockets could have wound up with lower picks before they started clinching worse records. (Pretty sure no team can pick lower than 4 picks below their seed/record/standing...) So tankathon earlier in the season would've shown them with lower pick possibilities...

    And I'm certainly glad we have no worse than a 52% shot at a top 4 pick, you do have to aggregate the percentages properly... Is what it is at this point, too many other things to be stressed out about, personally, your mileage may vary... Not a real fan perhaps (that's why I'm on CF in May 2021)...
     
  9. burlesk

    burlesk Tries hard
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    Silver making it come slow cuz he hates us
     
  10. ApacheWarrior

    ApacheWarrior Member

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    I do like when you post comments (any thread)

    I still see the Rockets through rose colored glasses to an extent. I prefer to divvy up
    the chances of the 48% as tankathon puts it, "Base Odds (w/o ties)":
    #1.....14%
    #2.....14%
    #3.....14%
    #4.....12.5%
    #5.....10.5%
    #6......9.0%
    #7......7.5%
    #8......6.0%
    #9......4.5%
    #10....3.0%
    #11....2.0%
    #12....1.5%
    #13....1.0%
    #14.....0.5%
    Numbers:
    accumulation of picks #5-14 gets you approximately to 48%


    As someone tweeted and it was re-tweeted.....the Rockets have a 14% chance
    at #1 and 86% chance of not. Then Clutch tweeted and put in perspective (as I see it).
    The only number that matters is that 52% chance.

    But 14% at number 1 is higher than that 10.5% at number 5. I can slice and
    dice it up too. To each and everyone's own interpretation or mindset.
    I tip my cap to those who wish to see it any way they want. Without borders.
     
    #70 ApacheWarrior, Jun 1, 2021
    Last edited: Jun 1, 2021
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  11. heypartner

    heypartner Contributing Member

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    There is no “own interpretation,” once you read how the lottery is conducted.

    The lottery is actually four drawings. It isn’t one drawing with 14 teams getting placed in some order, for each of the 14 slots.

    Each drawings only has one winner, like this:

    1. winner of 1st drawing gets 1st pick
    2. Winner of 2nd drawing gets 2nd pick
    3. Winner of 3rd drawing gets 3rd pick
    4. Winner of 4th drawing gets 4th pick
    If a team wins twice, they discard that drawing and redo it until a new combination arises as winner.

    at the end of the 4 drawings, the remaining losers get ranked in inverse order of rs record (incl pre-determined tie-breakers).

    so, since only one ping-pong ball combination is pulled from the machine for each drawing, there is no 2nd, 3rd, 4th ... 14th team in any one drawing, just winners. So there is no divvying up %s of impossible to achieve lotto slots after those 4 drawings are completed.
     
  12. daywalker02

    daywalker02 Easter Egg Hunter - Tell me why? نحن عائلة

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    I do think the base color of luck is green, lmao.
     
  13. ApacheWarrior

    ApacheWarrior Member

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    Is there still the same amount of ping pongs and does the 52% chance still remain for top 4 pick?

    Allow my simple little mind to see as I wish to see, and you see as you see fit, good day sir
     
  14. jchu14

    jchu14 Contributing Member

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    Where do you see that on tankathon? Did you see that on tankathon or just your own way of dividing up the odds for pick 5-14 in your own mind?

    I see this chart on tankathon http://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds which is what many other posters are trying to say. .

    There is zero chance of the Rockets receive pick 6-14. There is 52% chance Rockets retain their pick if it's 1,2, 3, or 4. There is 48% chance that it's pick number 5, then OKC gets it.
     
  15. ApacheWarrior

    ApacheWarrior Member

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    Scroll down....another chart listed as Base Odds.

    This is all Same Crap different Cow stuff. I'm done answering this topic people. Just waiting
    until the lottery.
     
  16. alethios

    alethios Member

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    thanks for breaking it down, hp, The odds are not in our favor and more than likely we will end up with the #18 (plus the #23/24)
     
  17. jchu14

    jchu14 Contributing Member

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    Oh. I think you're reading the chart wrong, it's rotated 90 degrees from what you're thinking it says.

    The odds for a particular team/seed to get a pick is read from left to right in a single row.

    So for the 1st seed (Rockets), the chance to get first pick is 14%, 2nd pick is 13.4%, 3rd pick is 12.7% etc. (read from left to right on the same row).

    When read from top to bottom on the first column (14,14,14,12.5,10.5 etc), that represents the chance a team of a particular seed (rows) gets that pick (columns). So the 13th worst team (Indiana) has a 1% chance to win the 1st pick and the 14th worst team (GSW) has a 0.5% chance of winning the 1st pick.
     
  18. ApacheWarrior

    ApacheWarrior Member

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    I'm reading it correctly......0% chance the Rockets get picks 6-14.....and 0% chance
    the Rockets get pick #5 because it goes to OKC......so what does it matter?

    CF's are so anal, geez
     
  19. Verbal Christ

    Verbal Christ Member

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    Reverse Jinx is strong in this thread ..... I like it.
     
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  20. IVFL

    IVFL Member

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    We are more likely to get a 1-4, but not much more. 52 is greater than 48. Its just not as big of a variance as I would like to have. Hate to beat a dead horse. Morey new the new draft rules, all he had to do was make it top 5 protected to make it 100% protected right now. This is pretty incompetent for a "stats guru"
     
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