I get that but is there a chance every year that your star player gets hurt? I think NBA history has several examples of a good team losing their star for a year and getting a high pick. What better way to guarantee your future. You guard against the idea that we could be really bad by adding one extra draft slot to the parameters of the deal. I don't think protecting the pick 1-5 vs 1-4 is a deal breaker. That Westbrook trade was historically bad and we are just beginning to feel the effects on our draft picks.
I dont think the lottery is rigged, which all things considered actually makes this even worse for us. As stated above by Reeko, we actually have a decent case for why the league should rig it for us. So if they just let the odds play out, that's not great for us.
I've accepted that we are receiving the 18th pick. Ive come to terms with the more likely outcome. As much as @Reeko wants to believe, Silver isn't about to do any favors for the Rockets. I'll gladly put $50 in the tip jar if we end up with a top 4 pick. Feel free to remind me on that night as well.
I need someone to do an analysis of coin flipping to really understand all this hard science. What if the numerals they're using aren't fairly weighted? That number 52, it looks suspiciously self-similar if you flip it horizontally -- coincidence? Seems unlikely.
In his defense, Morey likely never imagined we'd have the worst record in the entire freakin' league in 2021.
A broken record of an argument is the league doesn't clamor for Houston teams. While true, it's due to the fact that Houston fans aren't mindless zombies that make sports their religion like they do in the North East! We have a thriving Cluthcity community, but for the most part we all take sports in stride. The fanbase that the leagues adore are the nutters! Houston fan's, always remember, though we are passionate, we aren't the fans the league's want to exploit; because too much common sense here in Houston! Blue collar town with work ethics and life balance!!!! If the NBA does Houston dirty, I would not be surprised by it. But after Morey exposed them for biased calls in favor of Golden State, nothing changed! Quietly everything just got swept under the rug and Morey moved on to a Premium-Fan-Base-city, that is Philadelphia. Though Morey did have the last laugh as he detonated the public relations nightmare regarding the Hong Kong / China / NBA controversy; I still think Morey just messed with the NBA for ridiculing him; Lesson is, don't mess with the Nerds!!
I was under the impression, and I could be wrong, but didn’t the league change the draft rules after our trade? I thought it was specifically top 4 protected because even if the Rockets completely bombed, the worst they could have gotten was the 4th pick. Subsequently the rules changed and we’re vulnerable to the 5th pick.
The draft is definitely rigged. It’s rigged towards teams that lose superstars. Because It somewhat evens the playing field between small and large markets. Our situation will most likely be similar to the Pelicans losing Ad to the Lakers then drafting Zion. **** Cleveland got damn 3 straight number 1 picks after losing LeBron. Cade being from Texas (Dallas/Arlington) only helps the narrative. He can stay home with his family, daughter etc.
Yea it would've been brilliant insurance and probably doable only one extra pick of protection, but hindsight is exactly just that. At that time you had a star who by all accounts considered the rockets front office and tad family and said he spoke to them more than he spoke to his family, who he also moved down here and ran his foundation. You could not see this imploding the way it did, but at least the owner made good profit for 3 years and got to enjoy harden on a budget before they all ran fro the newly minted Landry's Rockets
Yea I think @Reeko hit it spot on. It wasn't consistent with big market teams, not even rabid fanbases, it seems the nba gave pick ups to the teams that really needed them or lost a star, be it new orleans(also not a great market or rabid fanbase) likewise with Cleveland multiple times over, phoenix was neither when it came to ayton, and minny as well getting it twice with KAT and Edwards recently. So not sure if there is any pattern, but if anything we just sent a huge commodity and star to one of the largest markets, we're down in the ruins with an owner who was trying to save money BEFORE he got hitt the hardest in the pandemic, We'll take that no 1, Mr. Silver and hopefully follow through like we did with Hakeem and even Yao outside of being derailed with injuries
52% chance.........../................ 48% chance Picks 1-4................./................Picks 5-14 I see that the 52% dissected and distributed between picks 1-4 I know it's nitpicking; but shouldn't the 48% be dissected and distributed as well? Seems deceptive when "we" say the #5 pick is a 48% chance...... then I choose to say the #1 pick is 52%.
The 48% is distributed. The Rockets have a 48% chance to get the 5th pick. This is a perfect thread for one of JCDenton's charts.
I see it as two ball parks Ballpark 1 (picks 1-4) Is 52% in size Ballpark 2 (picks 5-14) Is 48% in size. The whole sum of it parts being broken down for picks 1-4 But the whole sum of its parts not being broke down for picks 5-14.
Here is the breakdown for picks 5-14. The Rockets have a 48% chance of getting the 5th pick (thus the 18th pick) 6th: 0% 7th: 0% 8th: 0% 9th: 0% 10th: 0% 11th: 0% 12th: 0% 13th: 0% 14th: 0%
You know what I'm saying, #1) 14% #2) 14% #3) 14% #4) 10% #5) 9% or something like that #6) 6% or something like that #7) 5% or something like that.....and so on There is a % (value) that the ping pong will land at a numbered pick. Fewer ping pong than Rockets. So if you group 5-14 and say that's 48% and made to look more expansive. Then I would like not to break down the 1-4 picks from 52% to........shrinkage levels. http://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds
