Draft info, CD quotes from Chronicle

Rockets prepare for draft's twists, turns
By JONATHAN FEIGEN
Copyright 2001 Houston Chronicle

The Rockets' coaches pore over tapes and reports they hope to never have to consider again. They work out players they hope they won't draft. They debate the strengths and weaknesses of young talents they hope will become some other team's strengths and weaknesses.

While Rudy Tomjanovich and his coaches and scouts prepare to use their three first-round draft choices, general manager Carroll Dawson works to get rid of the picks.

They have become like the 12th man who takes one last free throw before the game starts, just in case. But rather than being naively optimistic, the Rockets have been carefully pessimistic, preparing for the what-if of Wednesday's NBA draft.

"We are trying to move up, but that does not always work out," Dawson said. "We tried last year. You don't ever count on something happening. You prepare for everything.

"You have to go over everything that could happen. If you just went over what you'd like to happen, you'll be surprised a lot of times. The more people you have in front of you in the draft, the more scenarios you have to cover."

But as the Rockets have prepared for virtually every possibility, they have discovered that this season's draft is vastly different from last season's.

A year ago, the Rockets believed that the top echelon of talent ran eight players deep. They held the No. 9 pick and, after failing to move up, dropped back to No. 15 in a trade with the Bucks that netted them Jason Collier and an extra first-round pick this season.

This season, Dawson said, there is no line separating the top rung of talent from the next group, offering a chance to take a player with their No. 13 pick that could be considered a worthy lottery pick.

Any one of as many as six players considered likely to go in the top dozen picks -- including Troy Murphy, Richard Jefferson, Vladimir Radmanovic and perhaps Joe Johnson -- could slip to the Rockets at No. 13. Another four or five -- including Steven Hunter, Brendan Haywood, Loren Woods and Zach Randolph -- could be considered a good pickup at No. 13.

As of Friday, however, Dawson said that even if he could be guaranteed the first 12 picks, he could not guarantee whom the Rockets would choose at No. 13.

But beyond even that uncertainty about the pick itself, Dawson and the Rockets have found this to be the ideal draft to have or deal multiple picks.

"This is one of the deepest drafts I can remember," Dawson said. "So if we do pick three, it's the right time to do it. But it's also why I have a good negotiating tool. I want people to listen to me, and I think they are more than in the past.

"The chance of getting some guys that can help teams is pretty good. Most of the time, you don't think of guys like a Sam Cassell, people you take in the 20s, like that. You hope they work out, but they don't always do that."

The Rockets remain determined to use their multiple picks to move up to pick a player they believe would fit best, to avoid committing themselves to three more young players and to keep as much cap space available as possible.

Contracts of first-round draft choices are guaranteed, and if the Rockets added three rookies without making other deals, they would have seven players with two seasons or less experience on the roster. And only two of the seven, Steve Francis and Kenny Thomas, would have ever received any significant playing time.

Because the picks are guaranteed, even unsigned they would occupy cap room the Rockets would like to have open for free agents. And even if cap space or experience were not issues, the Rockets hope to sign enough of their own or outside free agents to not have room for three more players.

The advantage of choosing three first-rounders -- especially in a draft so deep in young, unproven talent -- is that it increases the chances that one blossoms into a difference-making player.

"You try to see them enough that you know what they will do," Dawson said. "There's always a chance that the sky's the limit. There is also a chance they could fail. It's not a 100 percent deal."

Because the top five or six players could go in any order, and even the players likely to go next are uncertain, teams seem more willing to trade draft positions than usual. The Wizards, with the top pick, Bulls, Warriors, Grizzlies and Nets have been active in talks about moving their picks. Dawson said he has spoken to every team in the top 10 about potential deals in which the Rockets could move up.

"We've tried as hard as we can to move up," Dawson said. "The chances are better than they have been in the past because of the draft (class this season) and because we have more picks. We're still talking, but you don't hang your hopes on that. We try to move up every year. This year, everybody's making a bigger deal out of it because we have more to offer and I guess there's a better chance. But those picks are hard to get."

With three first-round picks, the Rockets have some ammunition to move. But because they have six free agents on the roster -- Hakeem Olajuwon, Maurice Taylor, Shandon Anderson, Matt Bullard, Moochie Norris and Sean Colson -- they also lack signed players to move to sweeten a deal.

Any deal that changes the draft order, however, could set off a chain reaction of movement. With so many young players to be taken in the top 10 picks, teams are likely to covet different players, Dawson said, leading to more dealing when it becomes clearer whom the top teams in the draft want.

"Every movement changes the draft," Dawson said. "You have to be ready for everything. People find out the guy they want could be taken ahead of them so they do whatever they can to move up. The last three days before the draft is when a lot of the action starts happening. Everybody gets as clear a picture as they can get before it happens."

Until then, the Rockets work to get a clearer picture about what they hope doesn't happen.

"You never know," Dawson said of the draft order, offering a phrase that could apply to so many aspects of the draft.

If there is one thing that remains clear, it is that the you-never-know of the draft looms no matter how much work a team does to find out.

Can't forget the link either... wouldn't want someone to think it was mine.

http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/story.hts/sports/bk/bkn/950971

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[This message has been edited by The Cat (edited June 23, 2001).]