Laettner's best year was 21.5 ppg Grant Hill's best year was 18.0ppg Elton Brand's best was 17.7 ppg Corey Magette 1 season 10.6 ppg Shane Battier 19.9ppg Now compare those to JJ Redick JJ's 26.6 ppg this year and 21.8 ppg last year It just seems to me that the guy is going to be a special player. Scouting Report: A streaky shooter, but still one of the purest in the country ... Has terrific elevation, discipline and poise in his form ... Releases the ball at the top of his elevation ... Much of the reason for his hot and cold tendencies lies in his shot-selection, not mechanics ... Possesses range that borders on unreal, and he occasionally gets caught up in that ability ... Will take 3-pointers from well beyond the stripe ... Uses his outside shooting ability to create mid-range shots for himself, throwing pump fakes to open up pull-up jumpers ... Has solid finishing ability when he gets deep in the lane, but is not an outstanding athlete ... Defense needs improvement. DD
Arenas runs the point so there's no comparison and Wade was one of the three 6'3" or shorter exceptions that I already mentioned. Wade obviosly plays from the off-guard spot now (and is actually listed at 6'4" anyways). Redick is listed at 6'4" but that is a generous listing IMO. As you know, listed heights are generally rounded up and are usually off a little bit. I guess we will see for sure whenever he attends the draft camp but I wouldn't be surprised at all if his listed height was off. Regardless, all we're doing here arguing over an inch is beating around the bush. Even at 6'4", that is still considered below average height for a SG. Redick simply doesn't have the athleticism or skill set to offset his other weaknesses and lack of size. You can only do so much with a catch-and-shoot player that can't create his own shot and can't play adequete defense. Does this really sound like the player you want starting for your team?
DD, you have to at least recognize that points don't mean everything. Brand did 17ppg 10rpg 2blg while shooting 62% Hill did 17ppg 7rpg 5apg Laettner did 22ppg 8rpg Battier did 20ppg 7rpg Redick did 28ppg 2rpg (and turned it over just as many times as he assisted). I understand that we wouldn't draft Redick to grab boards or run the team. But looking at ppg don't tell the whole story for those other guys. I for one wouldn't mind drafting Redick, but it all depends on who is available.
How in the world would you know whether or not Redick is or isn't actually his listed 6'4". He may not be - but seriously, unless you've actually met him or been close enough to gauge - are you just going by watching him on tv and a feeling? You're right, though, it doesn't matter too much. Here's the thing to me - I don't see how Redick can possibly do what Arenas or Wade or doing. He lacks their athleticism (though he is athletic, for sure) and upper body strength. J.J. will have to learn to be a point guard/shooting guard combo in the NBA...and I think he can do that. I'm comparing him to Kirk Hinrich (7th) and Luke Ridnour (14th) - both from a very strong 2003 draft class. Yes, they are both also white, but body types are almost identical: J.J. = 6'4", 190 Kirk = 6'3", 191 Luke = 6'1", 185 Unfortunately, J.J. has no experience running the PG position, so it's hard to tell. If I'm the Rockets, I put him through extremely rigorous ball handling excercises, one-on-ones and scrimmages. At his size, hei s just going to have to play some minutes at the point. I think his game currently translates decently into the NBA. But as mentioned, he is a defensive liability most of the time at the 2 guard. I'd be ecstatic about picking J.J. - BUT, only if we got something else, too. Whether it meant moving down to get him and another pick. Or simply keeping our pick and trading something else (future first + [fill in the blank with something]) to get another pick. Reddick at #8 is too high. Reddick by himself, even assuming we use the full MLE, is not enough - not with all the holes we have to fill when J.J. is a somewhat duplicative - though potentially better - player (undersized guard).
Laettner--2 Championships and a loss in the Finals Hill--2 Championships and a loss in the Finals Brand and Magette--loss in Finals Battier--1 Championship Reddick--Nada
ok, well that's a lot more reasonable, although still highly debatable as far as compared to Laettner...absolutely no F'in way. as others have said in this thread, and as any historical college basketball guy will say as well, Laettner is pretty much a lock for one of the Top 5 college basketball players of *all-time*. Redick wouldn't even crack a Top 50 list I doubt. I can pretty much guarantee you Coach K and all former Duke basketball players would all rate Laettner as better than Redick now compared to Hill, Brand, Battier, and Maggette, it's arguable. personally, I think Hill was definitely better overall than Redick. Brand and Battier, I think you could go either way, 50/50. Redick was obviously better than Maggette for sure, Maggette didn't do jack in college as others have said, you seem to be only looking at one stat, points per game. trust me, you don't want me to bring up a list of historical college scoring title winners, and see how a ton of them didn't do crap in the NBA
I have been close enough. I ran into the team traveling in an airport about a year ago. I was pretty close to him and i'm 6'2", he had about an inch on me. Plus, its pretty much common knowledge that listed heights for basketball players are usually generous anyways. Comparing Redick to Ridnour/Hinrich based upon their similar height/weight alone is ridiculous. Ridnour and Hinrich have been playing the point and running offenses throughout their entire careers. Both actually have playmaking skills, athleticism and far superior all-around game compared to what Redick brings. Redick can't be trusted to handle the ball on the college level, what makes you think you could convert him into a NBA PG? Hell, he can't even drive and take more than two dribbles but I guess he's going to "learn" to penetrate and dish, create opportunities and do all those other things? That's like saying since Bogans and Ray Allen have roughly the same height/weight we could covert a bad shooter like Bogans into an efficient one like Allen. It just doesn't work that way. Players are made a certain way and of course they can improve in some aspects, but expecting to convert Redick into a PG is a scary and pointless thought. The big question is: If Redick's shot isn't falling what else can he do for you? The answer is absolutely nothing. He can't create his own shot or handle the ball. He can't defend. Barely any athletic ability to speak of. I'm sorry but that translates into a bench player, not a starter in my book.
My size comparison was more one of size and athleticism, where I think all three players compare. You take that and look at it DEFENSIVELY, and it helps bolster that case that Reddick won't be a complete bust defensively if you can have him guarding other PGs. I agree with your concerns about his playmaking ability. But they are just concerns, and not facts. The fact is that it isn't clear. If he wasn't such a fantastic scorer in college, wouldhe have played PG - I don't know, I just don't see why it hurts to put him through a vigourous work-out to try and find the answer as best you can. I think it does work that way to an extent defensively. At this point, I think Reddick CAN be a good combo guard in the NBA, with some effective minutes at the point. I do not know that for certain and definitely wouldn't gamble the 8th pick on it. In the games I saw him play he looked like he could create his own shot. He has a fantastic step-back move and was able to drive the lane. He never seemed to have any significant problems handling the ball and looked decently athletic. No, he can't dunk from the free throw line, but he seems athletic enough. Expecting him to guard tall SGs effectively in the NBA is ridiculous, BUT if he is an effective offensive player, they will find a defensive assignment that works - if Hinrich and Ridnour can do it, Reddick definitely can. I will not be happy if the Rockets select Reddick 8th. But I don't understand why he can't be a starter in the NBA on the right team. But you never know about 75% of these guys. Kwame Brown, Olowakandi, Eddie Griffin...there are plenty of players who are super athletic and look like the next big thing and are busts too.
Hinrich is an excellent defender and is efficient on both ends of the court. He's twice the player Redick is and is also better than Ridnour, who admittedly is a terrible defender, however what he lacks on defense is offset by his playmaking ability and quickness. Redick doesn't have the luxury of a "fall back skill" to rely on if his shot isn't falling or any form of ability to offset the fact that he will be terrible on the defense end. My claims are just "concerns" rather than fact? I know you've seen the kid play so if you can't tell by your own judgement alone, check out any scouting report since there are plenty of them out there. They all say the same thing: not ideal size for a 2, lack of athleticism, no ball handling skills and a bad defender. Redick is a smart player that can shoot. Smart in the sense that he doesn't make dumb mistakes and knows how to trick defenders on the college level with his pump fake. Other than that, he doesn't have much going for him aside from being just a catch-and-shoot player. He can't create his own shot, he can't drive (on any play that doesn't involve him receiving a pass while cutting to the basket) and doesn't have the kind of quickness Hinrich/Ridnour have to just blow by people. Comparing Redick to busts like Kwame, Kandiman and Griffin are off base. The whole reason people are so up on them is because of their potential and upside. In addition, those players are as athletically gifted as the Garnett's, Brand's, Bosh's, etc of the world so assuming a team can draft and develop their skill sets to be like those bigger names are risks worth taking. Nobody is going to draft Redick and assume he can develop onto the level of the big names mentioned above. Why? As I mentioned earlier in this thread, players of his mold and size haven't proven to be effective as starters. That combined with his shortcomings lead me to believe its not possible for him to be anything more than a bench player. With the 8th pick overall, we can do better.
I want him on our team too. I don't pay much attention to awards, though. I just think he will be perfect for us, and our team will be perfect for him. Offensively, JJ's shooting ability will take a lot of pressure from Yao and T-Mac. And in return, since our stars attract a lot of attention anyway and both of them are good passers, JJ will get tons of open looks. The shots he will hit will win a lot of games for us. That's my mininum expectation for him. On my more optimistic days, I see him as Peja - bad back + clutchness. Defensively, I see JJ as a bigger David Wesley. JJ is about as quick as Wes, and his intensity may be even higher than Wesley's. So he will be OK. If JJ turns out as I see him on my more hopeful days, our Big Two will become the Big Three.
Its arguable that JJ will be successful as an offensive player in the NBA. But, it is not arguable that he will be successful in the league as a defensive player, either at the 1 or the 2. JJ is too slow to guard 1s, and not nearly long or strong enough to guard 2s. DWes is three times stronger than JJ and that allows him to be a pseudo-successful defensive player. JJ will get pushed around by nearly every two guard he plays, and that doesn't even take into account that he'll be too slow to guard 3/4 of the 2 guards in the nba. Don't fool yourself into thinking he can be a decent defensive player.
We're still arguing how good Reddick will be? Granted I don't want him at #8. If we trade down to 12-5 and get him I'll be really happy. But I saw him play in games (at least a dozen this past year). First, on ball handling. No, he didnt play point guard. But he did handle ball at times. ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE GAME. He shot 250 free throws. YES 250!!! You don't shoot that many free throws unless you have the ball under pressure late in games, or you can somewhat drive the ball. Also He has a midrange game. He can make a fadeaway shot. He can get to the lane. He is not just a spot up shooter. He learned last year to use his shot to be able to take someone off the dribble to get a mid range shot or to pass out. If someone can hit the 25 ft shot, you have to play him tight, and even if you are really quick defender, you cannot complete stop the drive. Example. He shot over 300 2 point baskets last year and made more than half of them. Everyone says he's a one trick pony, but he is not. Now I know everyone now say, why then have the athletic guards stop him or that he cannot do that in the NBA? Sure he may not be able to that immediately, be he can get there. He also has McGrady and Yao to take some heat off him and get him some shots. Reddick won't probably be a star, but he could very well be a consistent starter or 6th or 7th man. (Also, before yall say i'm a Duke fan. No, I'm a UNC fan, been so since 93. I just respect opponents and rivals for what they can do.)
When we pick Redick, 70% of people on this board will be against that draft. He will make those naysayers quickly think about it, as soon we play 5-10 games! I bet ya!
We're just going to have to agree to disagree then. I don't feel like reiterating everything I have already said in this thread about how players that fit his mold don't succeed as starters, how the elite teams in the league have quality starters that are efficient on both ends of the floor and about how his game is severely flawed and doesn't translate well to the next level if your intention is to make him anything more than a bench 3-point specialist. You claim you've seen him play, especially in the clutch, then you should be well aware of the fact that he functions in a very Reggie Miller-like offense designed to get him open. It's an offense based almost entirely on screens and off the ball movement. Their bread and butter play is to have Paulus float around the perimeter with the ball, have Redick stand beneath the basket, then have Shelden, McRoberts, Melcionni or whoever set a screen while Redick comes flying baseline to the 3-pt line, gets a pass and either fires up the ball or uses his clever pump fake and draws a foul or drives if he gets the defender up in the air. He rarely handles the ball or drives. The only way he drives to the basket is if the play is designed with him cutting and receiving a pass to the basket. He's not able to just blow by people. I don't mean to sound like some kind of anti-Duke/Redick hater. I think Redick could be a decent player in this league on the right team. I can't imagine him as a starter but there's absolutely nothing wrong with being a solid bench player.....on a team desperate for shooters no less. Bottom line though, you can't take him 8th overall. I would take him if we traded down to the mid-first round but I find it hard to stomach drafting a pretty one-dimensional player so early with bigger, better athletes with upside and potential likely available.
Most of the argument between Redick and Roy are like both players will be available at #8 I think the discussion should be between Redick, Brewer, Carney, Foye, Shelden Williams and Splitter. Roy won't be there at #8 unless we trade up but is Roy deserves some of our tradable assets? We don't have much of those!
Fortunately, muscle is something that anybody can grow, if he works hard enough. And Redick is an incredibly hard worker.
