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Draft for need vs sign for need

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by leebigez, Jul 2, 2012.

  1. leebigez

    leebigez Contributing Member

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    Before I start, let me say I have no problem with Asik, my problem is more of the process. We've heard best prospect availible and that fine, but why isn't it true for free agency?

    Ok, a week before the draft, dalembert was traded so the rockets can move up 2 spots. The rockets other center was unrestricted. Essentially, the rockets don't have a center. The draft comes and there are 4 center prospects in the draft with drummond being the best and melo being at the bottom. Before the draft, all 4 were rated in the top 20. Draft takes place and drummond goes 9,leonard 11, zeller 17,and melo 21. Just my own personal observations, I had jones rated higher than white. I had white and melo pretty even,but that's just me. My take is, why was it reaching or not a need to draft fab melo at 18,but at the start of free agency,they go and sign asik to an offer sheet? Fab Melo would cost the rockets 1m for about the next 3 or 4 yrs,but asik will cost 7m. Is asik that much better than fab melo. If its truly about getting the best players, is asik at 7m a better player than the other options at other positions.

    Look at it this way,perkins was drafted,nurtured,and traded for #5 pick from 07. Gortat was drafted,nurtured,and traded for jason richardson and filler. The rockets offered courtney lee for a barely playing asik,got declined,and waited 2 yrs later and are now offering him almost 8m a yr. Wouldn't it have been better financially and for future considerations to draft fab melo at 18?
     
  2. TexAg713

    TexAg713 Member

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    I have to agree and should disclose that I'm a pro-Morey guy. He's done many good things for this franchise, but he is also far from perfect. Our front office has an above average knack for drafting talent, but have they drafted ANY decent centers at all? They missed out on guys like DeAndre Jordan or even Omer Asik and more I'm sure. It's almost as if they are scared to draft them, or there is something severely wrong with the way they rate them in the lead up to the draft. It appears to be something systemic that hopefully gets fixed soon.
     
  3. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Contributing Member

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    Sign for need makes more sense because the FAs you sign are known commodities with NBA experience. If you sign a guy to fill a need, there is a good chance that he'll actually fill the need. With a guy like Marcus Camby, you've seen him playing in the NBA for years, you know what he'll bring and what he won't.

    Draft for need doesn't make as much sense because you don't really know who each rookie is going to be and whether he will fill your need either presently or even a few years later. For example: Seattle felt they needed a center back in in mid 2000s, so they drafted seven footers Robert Swift (12th pick, 2004), Johan Petro (25th pick, 2005) and Mouhamad Saer Sene (10th pick 2006) in consecutive years. None of them worked out.

    The draft is such a crap shoot. It's difficult enough just to find guys who do not suck at NBA basketball. Putting perceived "need" above "finding the guy least likely to suck" just makes your success rate even lower.
     
    3 people like this.
  4. jsmee2000

    jsmee2000 Contributing Member

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    I think that what you need to consider is that there is a high bust factor when drafting centers. Furthermore, Fab Melo might have been in your top 20 or even drafted 22nd but it might not have been in DM's top 20. Lastly, a vast of majority of centers are always paid significantly after their respective rookie contract. The reason -- not too many big men in the league that are serviceable. Consequently, it may appear as if they are overpaid; however, the demand for these centers drives their cost.
     
  5. leebigez

    leebigez Contributing Member

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    CH, if the goal is to get the best players on your roster, why do you sign a guy because because he fills a need? Go back to the draft in whick asik was drafted. Were the guys the rox drafted in the 2nd rd bpas? If so, are they on the team now? Morey has stated before the mle type guys are misses and flops. So how are teams using fa to fill a need vs bpa and in your teams budget? How many times have we seen guys get paid and flop? Hedo was looking like flop even at mle money until he turned the corner in orlando. He got paid big time and then started looking like a flop again. Ariza was another mle, but after 1 yr he was gone.

    Again, I understand the bust rate of big guys in the draft,but drafting a guy at 18 and he's a bust cost the team a lot less than a guy making 7m a yr and being a bust, right?
     
    #5 leebigez, Jul 2, 2012
    Last edited: Jul 2, 2012
  6. UTAllTheWay

    UTAllTheWay Member

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    I had this message typed out about why I think it is the wrong move to draft for need, and then I looked at the previous posts and realized that I couldn't have possibly said it any better than the way Carl said it.

    So just read what Carl posted lol
     
  7. leebigez

    leebigez Contributing Member

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    What makes u think lamb wasn't a need pick? Lee is rfa and martin is a dead man walking. The scale just so happens to fit bpa that's also a need.
     
  8. DrNuegebauer

    DrNuegebauer Member

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    I guess the issue is that there's no guarantee Melo can do anything at all on an NBA court.

    We know that Asik can do what he does. If it turned out that Melo couldn't produce anything, then there's absolutely no value financially or in future considerations.



    I'm gonna trust this decision I think. Morey wanted Gortat for a while, and he's a 15/10 guy now. I won't be at all suprised if Asik is a 10 rebound 2.5 block guy next season, and clearly they think there's something they can teach him on the offensive end.
     
  9. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Contributing Member

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    1. I think the Rockets think that Asik IS the best player available to them in the current FA class, not just a need filler. There are better guys out there, but they are not "available" to the Rockets (for example, some might be too expensive, some like Deron have no interest in Houston). You spend money on him because he's not the kind of talent you can easily find in a draft (you like Fab Melo, but there is probably a 80+% chance he's gonna be a bust, given past draft history of late 1st rounders, particularly centers) or via trade.

    2. Nobody says you don't consider "best player available" when you sign free agents. For example, if Lebron was a free agent and actually has interest in Houston (i.e. is "available"), I bet the Rockets don't stay way from him because "Well, we got Parons so we don't NEED Lebron."

    The issue is just that, when you have a clear "need," it is easier to know which player with NBA experience can fill it than to guess at whether a draftee can fill it (either now or in the future). Of course, it's more expensive when you sign a guy but that's the cost of having more certainty.

    3. As applied to the Asik situation: The Rockets made a mistake when they didn't take Asik, who got drafted 36th overall in 2008 [Note: correction here, previously it said "2006"]. He's turned out better than the guys they drafted: Donte Greene and Joey Dorsey. But that kind of stuff happen all the time in drafts, especially in the latter part. Whether you go for need or go for (perceived) BPA, you can make mistakes.

    Missing out on Asik also had nothing to do with not "drafting for need"-- First, they didn't exactly have a burning NEED for a center in 2008, with Mutombo and Yao already on the roster. Second, they drafted Joey Dorsey because they thought he could be a good PF/C given his length and build-- they were wrong about him, but it has nothing to do with a difference in position.
     
    #9 Carl Herrera, Jul 2, 2012
    Last edited: Jul 2, 2012
  10. UTAllTheWay

    UTAllTheWay Member

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    Because if they really drafted for "need", they would have went with a Center. Lamb was the BPA, and they took him.
     
  11. Marsarinian

    Marsarinian Contributing Member

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    Well reasoned post. Wholeheartedly agree. /thread
     
  12. IzakDavid13

    IzakDavid13 Contributing Member

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    Not a fan of Asik.

    Agree with your post
     
  13. meh

    meh Contributing Member

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    You can't draft for need because nobody hits even close to perfect. If you or anyone else is capable of finding Asiks, Gasols, in the 2nd round at even a 50% clip, you would be a millionaire as the head of scouting department for the team of your choice.

    Drafting for need through developmental prospects is only viable with a time machine or an oracle.
     
  14. thetatomatis

    thetatomatis Member

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    I agree with getting Asik at this point. Its good to see Morey get the guys he wants for the most part to see his vision come together. Seeing him strike out more often than not only delays the process. Sure it might cost a pretty penny. Centers do.
     
  15. Shroopy2

    Shroopy2 Contributing Member

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    When you have FOUR DRAFTED players in one draft, you can afford to take a calculated risk on a center or particular position

    Of course you can draft for need. You think the Bulls drafted Marquis Teague withOUT thought of Derrick Rose being out?
     
  16. leebigez

    leebigez Contributing Member

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    Not to derail, but when gortat played for the few games howard was injured,he was a dbl-dbl player. If morey thought so highly of gortat who was rfa,he wouldn't have offered him less than the mle. He offered the guy 4m per,lol. Orlando said they were gonna match anything,but if he had at least a thought gortat would be 16-11 like he is,he wouldn't have low balled him.
     
  17. thetatomatis

    thetatomatis Member

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    At this point I will take Morey not striking out on his targets anymore. Thats what I want. No excuses. I want his targets to be signed by him so that we can judge his GM job on what he does for now on.
     
  18. DrNuegebauer

    DrNuegebauer Member

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    Total de-rail! (we couldn't offer the full MLE because we needed a portion for a certain rookie contract - and so the $4mill was all we had available)


    To bring it back on track, using the Gortat example: Asik is 10.5 boards/ 2.5 steals and 2 blocks as a starter.
    That might only be 2 games, but heck, Gortat was 3 before the offer.

    We've been chasing Asik for aaages. Clearly they're seeing something of him at the NBA level which makes them want him (perhaps just as a stopper? perhaps they see something they can develop offensively?) - hence the pursuit.
    If we HAD a center who could at least play a little, then sure, taking a Fab Melo might have been worth the shot. But because we're skinned, perhaps getting the known commodity is the safer option here.
     
  19. leebigez

    leebigez Contributing Member

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    I equate centers like qbs in the nfl. There are so few good ones,if you get a chance to draft one and devlop them,the payoff is great. Its easy to say,petro,boone,sene and guys like that were bust. On the other hand, when you have a gaping hole and there are players there and it fills a need in the middle of the draft,the reward is a lot greater than the risk imo. This is not about fab melo directly,but in reference to him,he graded out as the best big man defensively last yr. He held opponets to the lowest ppp of all the bigs in ncaa. Ok, asik is a really good defender in his limited minutes,but so are a lot of guys before they get exposed to larger minute volumes. Jim mcilvane was just like asik and got 7yr 35m back when those were kind of unheard of for a big off the bench. Dudley got a big deal from his defensive prowess in nj,but didn't do squat in portland. I'm not saying asik will be a bust,nor am I saying fab melo would be great,its just the monetary amount from asik to melo is huge. What made boston draft melo at 21 and not sign asik when they're a lot closer to winning and have more cap money than the rox? Not saying who is right or wrong,just asking the question.
     
  20. leebigez

    leebigez Contributing Member

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    Maybe my memory is foggy because of age,but the rox had the full mle to offer gortat. When gortat laughed it off,the rox offered mle to ariza who was unrestricted. Once it was known yao was out for the season,the rockets got a injury exception and used that to sign ariza if my memory serves me right.
     

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