Dr. Tiebreaker or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Watch the Game

And that '07 Rockets team only has 3 members still in uniform today. While the Jazz team has over half of the same crew. Last year doesnt count but the team was 2-2 in games where Alston started, and one of those losses he went out in a 4 point game near halftime and never came back. Sadly, injuries hurt the Rockets last year and I am not just talking about Yao. I think we get them again, and the story will be different. Rockets would beat Utah in 5 or 7.(I dont really think Utah will lose a game 6 at home, but perhaps a game 3 or 4).

 

all of that is well and good, but the NBA really does work like paper, rock, scissors. certain matchups are good. others are bad. there is no one formula for beating every team. the nba champion rockets probably wouldn't have won if they had to go through seattle.

at the end of the day, if you were a gm tasked with building a team to beat the rockets consistently under the current salary cap, you'd build something very much like the jazz. the jazz can play an average game, and the rockets have to play very well to beat them. if the jazz play a good game, the rockets have to play exceptionally well to win. that's exactly the type of upset that the 7 game playoff series is designed to prevent.

i dont think the rockets go out of their way to avoid the jazz, unless a clear and convenient opportunity arises. kind of like how the rockets won a meaningless game in denver in 2005 that kept them from being able to draft brandon roy. and how dallas totally screwed themselves psychologically when they had to play the warriors in the first round after winning 67 games. there are a lot of pitfalls in the way the matchups work, but right now, the Jazz hold the psychological edge in a big way.

if i have a choice, i dont want to play them.

 

definitely agree. i DO think the Jazz are our worst match-up. i just don't think it is anywhere near the level that the Sonics were a bad match-up for the early/mid 90's Rockets. If we get the Jazz and lose again, I'm obviously wrong, but logically, while definitely a bad match-up for us, I don't think it is one we can't overcome.

again, agree. however, again, wouldn't go as far as you. when the Jazz beat us, they play very very well. They aren't just playing ok and the Rockets playing exceptionally, and still winning. The issue is more that the Rockets have less success keeping the Jazz from playing exceptionally. Because of match-up reasons, the Jazz do get more opportunities against the Rockets...but even with that, they still only beat us when they take advantage of those opportunities.

Plus, let's not overlook the fact that the Jazz are a very solid team. very solid. their depth is amazing. their discipline is amazing. In another forum on this board many think Deron is better or equal to Chris Paul. And if Boozer isn't enough to deal with, now Millsap is a legit double double guy.

Granted, being so strong at the PG/PF, along with a center who shoots 45% from the three point line is what makes them such a bad matchup for the Rockets (relative to a Spurs, who have a better PG/PF combo, or the Lakers, who have bigs that are more athletic and can guard out to the 3 point line without needing to clog up the middle to help overall team defense), but let's not overlook that in all in all, they're a tough matchup for anyone.

And let's not overlook the fact that the Blazers, Hornets, Nuggets are also talented teams. The only reasons those teams aren't also "match-up" problems for us, is because we haven't lost in the playoffs two years in a row to them. I certainly hope we don't...BUT, if we play the Blazers and lose, make the playoffs again next year and play the Blazers and lose again...then they're now a "match-up" issue for us.

Logically, I agree that the Jazz seem to be the worst matchup for us. But Lakers (at the top) and Mavs (at the bottom) aside, all 6 other playoff teams are all very very talented, and you'd wouldn't really be surprised if any 3 of the 6 advance to the second round.

I don't know. If, on the last day of the season, the Rockets know if they lose the game they get the 3 seed and say the Blazers, as opposed to the 2 seed and the Jazz...I just don't know what you do.

 

If you guys are that critical of playing the jazz, then how good are we then? As I see it, the jazz are not a championship contender due to the proven fact that they cannot win away from the SLC. I hear about these matchup nightmares, but thats when the coaching needs to come in to play. IMO, we are a championship contender because now we are willing to play different styles, and we have the ULTIMATE wild card in Artest.He can wear on u in a seven gm series. And we do have an element of depth, something that we didn't have last time we lost to Utah. Just be optimistic and see where the chips fall. Ask yourself, what were your expectations in 94 when we were "runnin from Seattle, as to 97-98 when we were the Favorites to win the west.

 

I'm not 100% sure, but I'm pretty sure that that's not how it works...

All the division leaders are guaranteed a top four seed, but being a division leader does not give you any tiebreakers on it's own. I am reasonably sure that we will win the tiebreaker against Denver in any scenario because we won the head-to-head matchup against them.

Also, all your scenarios seem to assume that Denver, SA, and Houston will all be the 2-4 seeds at the end of the season... Considering how tight things are right now, that is not a good assumption at all.

 

Yes, very true. I think SA has the best chance to fall, considering their recent play. Our schedule is difficult, but most games fall into the winnable category for us. I really think we are going to win the division. I just don't know if we will finish ahead of Denver. If Denver beats us (and we do own the tie breaker) in the standings and we finish third, it still avoids the Lakers in the second round. I would take it. But I don't want to sacrifice a division championship even to avoid the Jazz.

 

i agree with everything you said except this. the blazers and nuggets are much, much better matchups for the rockets in a playoff series. the reason they aren't matchup problems is because they are built more traditionally.

the blazers are actually a very traditional team. pg by committee, offense run through the wings, traditional low block center and a pf with a back to the basket game and a jump shot.

the nuggs are an iso team just like the mavs, which is the type of team that the rockets tend to overachieve against because they have strong perimeter defenders on the wings. unless someone gets hot, or you let them out rebound and outhustle you, these teams are the best matchup for a team built like the rockets.

the hornets cause problems because they are a pnr team like the suns or jazz, but if you look at the complete package, they are not nearly as hard to match up with as the jazz because of their center position. they dont have a center that can spread the floor like okur, and both chandler and armstrong play close to the rim which is good for yao (other than the chandler pnr alley-oops, which would be much easier to prepare for in a series vs. an individual game). also the hornets are not as disciplined as the jazz, don't have the shooters the jazz do, and arent as versatile defensively.

the jazz, on the other hand, really cramp your brain if you are adelman. they have the "system" advantages of a pnr team like the hornets, the shooters of a traditional team like the blazers, and when the going gets tough they always have deron and boozer who are above average iso players like dirk and jet terry. throw in very good hustle players like kirilenko, boozer, and millsap, and you struggle to find one aspect of the game that you can say the rockets have a clear advantage.