DOW Down 250 Points. Is There a Bottom Anytime Soon?

Dude it's the 2045 fund - in theory you have 38 more years with which to get nut-kicked.

 

Well yeah. Like any other fund I can pretty easily justify the "I only lose for real if I sell" malarky. That does not mean that I necessarily want to watch my money whittle away in a ****ty market for the next 3 years either...

 

and GM is below 11. pretty sick to see that.

 

friday after the close, msnbc said the stock is trading the lowest it has been since 1955?

 

Streettalk Advisors are my brokers. You can hear Lance every weeknight at 6PM on KSEV 700. The newsletter is free though you might have to register. They don't resell you information. I can tell you that what he does with my account today is what he will talk about tonight. He takes care of us paying customers first but he doesn't BS anyone. Here's this weeks newsletter:

http://www.streettalkadvisors.com/XFactor/062808-Bear-Market-Confirmation.pdf

The gist is we are in a bear market but they think there should be a small oversold rally to 12,000 or 12,200 and that should be your best point to lighten up on equities. It could be seasonal or it could be longer. He has strategies for conservative investing during this period.

Read it, it's free. In my experience with him over 5 years he is if anything, a little too conservative and pessimistic. Fine, he misses some of the peaks but he keeps me out of the valleys.

 

The question is Main st. versus Wall st. The word bear market is scary, but in reality we are not even in a recession which is 2 subsequent quarters of negative GDP growth. Even viewing the fed model (Alan Greenspan's justification for 'irrational exuberance' comments in the late 1990's) the S&P 500 is cheap based on S&P company earnings relative to the index and the 10 year treasury yield.

Though we probably will go through a US consumer spending recession, the S&P 500 now recieves over 50% of its earnings from overseas. The decrease in US consumer spending will be made up for in spades by overseas growth and consumption.

The main concern and variability factor is in oil prices. Though unless one believes in Peak oil etc. we are in the midst of a oil/commodities bubble, but high energy eats into the profitibility of virtually all companies and if oil gets up to $160-$180 a barrell, the only sector that will make strong profits will be energy.

In conclusion: The Big US companies are CHEAP!

Risk Factor: Oil and Commodities are a bubble, but the irrational behavior can continue for a long time. If one wishes to hedge their equity non-energy portfolio, but oil calls as a hedge. Hopefully you never use them and they expire, but if oil skyrockets more, you'll profit from the options while all else is falling.

Cheers!

 

The market seems to always go toward extremes. Either too pumped up or too negative. If history tells us anything is that the markets will go up eventually.

 

"But I am telling them that the country as a whole is sound, and that all those who's heads are solid are bound to get back into the market again. I tell 'em that this country is bigger than Wall Street, and if they don't believe it I show 'em a map!"--Will Rogers 1929

 

Well is this the bottom?

 

Of what? Nasdaq, for instance, hasn't even made a new '08 low yet...

And Oil and Commodities, for instance, "are a bubble"........LOL

 

far too many question marks for this to be the bottom. we may be close to one but it doesn't feel like it yet. tomorrow is a half day so you can pretty much disregard any action you see. but next week should be telling. the underlying market is still very weak and there are no real catalysts to drive things higher. if the iran uncertainty was taken off the table then that would help but it only seems like things are escalating over there.

the only interesting thing that developed today was coal and steel prices cracking in europe and asia. it seems like their price rise will stop but prices should still remain high. i got a bit runover trying to pick a bottom in those guys today but oh well. anyhow it will be something to watch going forward since one of the major catalysts driving oil higher is the iran uncertainty. might see a similar situation if that ever gets resolved but it doesn't seem like it will be.

oh yeah we also have the ECB rate decision on thurs. lol i totally forgot tomorrow was thursday. ok well disregard my previous statement about disregarding all market action tomorrow . so if ECB hikes then oil will continue higher and dollar will weaken even more. who knows how much is already priced in. if there is no rate hike then i would guess oil would pull back 3-5 bucks. and if in the highly doubtful scenario ECB says they may look to ease rates going forward then oil should drop 5+. but comments like that could really spook our market if there was that much of a change from ECB that quickly. it would imply some major weakness in europe that may not already be priced in.

maybe i will wake up early for the decision to see if there are any trades. it is at 6:45 AM CST.

 

No.

Things will get worse.

 

GM is under 10 bucks -- not good for the US of A.

 

GM is not good for the USA. Toyota, Honda, etc. are opening plenty of plants here, and they actually build cars people want to buy.

 

another great point. GM the sands of the hourglass are running short for GM. they are trying to make changes as fast as they can but what happens if the cash burn is just too great? I seriously don't know the govt or america would cope with a GM bankruptcy along with almost certain major airline bankruptcies, more small bank failures, the likely crash of another major banking institutional, and all of the trouble at fannie, freddie, and sallie. I guess we can just hope for the best.

 

bush and cheney and a few of there friends came out just fine though. no worries

 

........let's try to keep the bs somewhere else. this isn't the sole doing of the bush/cheney admin. we are experiencing the convergence of many events that began with reagan and greenspan and continued under every president since.

 

fixed.

I think we'll rally one more time before a final "kick you in the nuts" drop to close out the year.