DOW Down 250 Points. Is There a Bottom Anytime Soon?

I know what happened in Japan. I think the US problem started in 2000, not in 2008. I think a secular bear market started then; investors were confused by the strength of the bull market run as part of that secular bear market.

Since I think we are in a secular bear market, I believe that we will fall more and that a real recovery will not happen until the market PE is in the single digits. I do not things will be as bad as Japan.

 

I couldn't disagree more, but good job trying to sound smart. I bet it works most of the time.

 

So what are you saying it will be like exactly?

Maybe fewer new lexuses and 6000 sq ft homes... but I find it hard to believe we will ever see bread lines.

I still think we are the best positioned country in the world as far as individual standard of living.

I don't think much has changed

 

Also I feel that John Mccain, having lived through the first great depression, will be the best to lead us through these troubling times.

 

BWAHAHAHAHAH!!!!!! He was alive for maybe like three years of the Great Depression.

 

The availablity of credit has changed.

The costs of mobility have changed.

The ability of most of the country's local governmentd to provide services has changed (bond ratings and taxable values)

The cost food has changed.

The ability of the United States to finance national government has changed,
in the willingness of other countries to buy our bonds and the ability to print money with little effect on inflation.

Unemployment is up, real income is down.

I can't hazard a guess what the next 10 years will be like. We were in a heap o'crap in about 1983 too but the invention of the computer and the internet pulled us out of that one.

 

What you're saying with this is you see us in a similar peril as 1983 but you don't see any major innovative device or service that will pull us up and out, is that right?

 

Yep, except the government owed a lot less money then , we weren't at war (burning money), and the banking crisis was much more localized and much smaller.

The oil bubble is hitting us where we are most vulnernable. Energy consumption= quality of life.

Panics like bubbles have a compounding effect because of the herd mentality.

 

If you think it's bad now, wait till it looks like Obama's going to win and people start pulling their money out of the market because of looming capital gains tax increases.

 

Going from 15% to 20% will drive the market MAD, I tell you.

Of course, this will be about as MAD as when the feds dropped the dividend tax and all those Fortune 500 companies started kicking out 5% dividends, no?

 

Would that be so bad? If gains were realized in a run-up to a tax increase I would guess that a decent proportion of those gains would go into consumption. If the economy is in need of stimulus at that point, that is a cheap way to do it.

This is actually one of the huge problems with the Republican strategy of agglomerating all benefits to the super-rich - They don't consume nearly enough of their income and quite frequently they spend a good deal of it off-shore.

 

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for those of you scoring at home

 

You do know you can disagree without being rude.

 

He has talked about raising it from 15% to 28% which is a big move.

 

Market down 3%.

The upside is all of those 401k contributions are now "buying low" this year (and last for that matter).

 

It would be nice if stocks went higher. I bet Obama isn't stressed out because he doesn't really own any stocks....according to Barrons...I had to make this political.

 

This is a great opportunity to load up on banks, and commercial riets. Might want to wait for them to bottom a little. I am looking at BAC as a great buy soon.

 

Price of oil too low = Houston bust

Price of oil too high = Houston bust