Don't Trade Jalen Green Just Yet.....Change is Coming

Green just tied Kobe for most 30+ point games by a SG before turning 23. Green turns 23 in February — think he can match McGrady???

 

Always feel like this is a little deceptive, because it's rare for an SG to enter the league so young and be given so many minutes and so much time on the ball right off the bat the way JG was. And also because Green is so wildly inconsistent on a game-to-game basis--it's not like he's regularly dropping 25 then occasionally dropping 30 or 40. It's more like he usually gives you 15 then one in every four or five games he goes off like this.

In any case, it's also more of a fun footnote than something we actually judge players by. We remember stars much more for their overall statistical production, for the awards they win and the all-star teams they make, for their championships and finals appearances.

 

I think those stats are a little weird too - no one should think Jalen is the 2nd coming of Kobe or Tmac. That said, there have been A LOT of young guards drafted to bad teams who got lots of minutes who didn’t do this. I think the age piece is important to note. Maybe the stat is telling us what is already widely known - that young players lack consistency. Coaching changes of offensive systems throw even more noise in the mix.

 

dam a little bit moar and he's worth the same as bukre. i sense a trade coming

 

I completely disagree. There are a ton of examples of young, highly drafted shooting guards who were given a lot of opportunities. Yes, he’s inconsistent, but the point of those stats is to show that what he’s done is pretty rare given his age.

Someone asked me to list the “single digit” games for those other players, and I was crazy enough to do it — McGrady had 80 or so single digit scoring games before turning 23, and Green has had 25. I feel like this board often lacks a true historical perspective when assessing young players.

 

By the way, Green is also 14th overall all time in most 30 point games before turning 23 for all positions.

 

Another important thing to keep in mind is that players regularly entering the league at age 18/19/20 was very rare until recently. Even during Kobe and T-Mac's time, they were outliers. Here are the ages some of the top SGs in NBA history entered the league:

Michael Jordan: 21 (missed most of his age 22 season too)
Dwyane Wade: 22
Clyde Drexler: 21
Allen Iverson: 21
George Gervin: 20 (but played first 6 seasons in ABA so his games there don't count)
Reggie Miller: 22
Ray Allen: 21
Vince Carter: 22

Most of the best shooting guards of the past simply didn't have time to rack up so many thirty point games.

 

11th is most misses before 23
of the 25 on the list, 3rd lowest FG%

https://www.statmuse.com/ask/most-missed-field-goal-attempts-before-turning-23?l=nba

 

This information lacks a lot of context though.

Through Tmacs first ~110 games played he was only getting about 7 shots per game.
Jalen started off as a rookie getting 14+ shots a game.

 

if cam was given the same amount of minutes, shots, and chances regardless of wins and efficiency he would have racked up same number of 30 point games as well

 

I understand that. The point is Green has had far fewer “single digit” games in his career than people on this board believe. His lows are not as low as this board professes, and his highs are underrated.

 

I've been feeling encouraged with Jalen's last 10 games. Despite a stinker against the Hornets of all teams, he's been averaging basically 20 points a game on 45.5/33/86.5. While it's far from GREAT efficiency, compared to November it's night and day, and I hope that Jalen can keep it up.

 

Funny how you use FG% rather than the TS%, which is a far better metric. Could it be because Green is 11th in TS%, right below LeBron and above guys like C. Anthony, D. Rose, and K. Garnett?

 

When he's on, he's unstoppable. Like top scorer in the league unstoppable. The most ridiculous shots are swishes, the movements are elite, the court vision is crisp, and he looks amazing.

But his motor isn't running like it should most of the time, and We're experiencing that over and over again. Most of us are simply tired of his inconsistent play. He's clearly talented enough, but he's still way too immature to truly blossom. Perhaps he needs a fresh start to level up, because I don't think it will happen with us.

I'm interested in seeing how he's going to play through the next 5 games. Great test ahead for sure.

 

it's actuall 31 games under 10 points
https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/games-under-10-points-for-jalen-green

84 games under 15 points
https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/games-under-15-points-for-jalen-green

 

Regardless, 84 games under 15 points and only 31 under 10 is pretty good considering he’s played in 255 games. That means he’s scored over 15 points in about 70% of his games.

 

okay I was just too lazy to scroll

how's his TS% now compared to his teammates and peers of the same age?

 

Give the guy a break! I usually block scrubs like him, but I've decided to keep BobbyTheCasual around for his comedic value.