Don't Dream It's Over... Written by: Macbeth With apologies to the Australian pop band of the 80's and 90's, the Toronto Raptors are indeed facing a crowded house at center entering the 2002-3 season. You have the ever present (and paid) Michael Bradley, the ever promising Mamadou N'diaye, the ever polite Eric Montross and the seemingly ever lasting Hakeem Olajuwon..oh, and you also have Antonio Davis once again reluctantly willing and able to step into the breach if needed. Of the bunch the most talked about story of the off-season has been the up in the air status of the Dream. Olajuwon came to Raptors amid much hoopla last summer, seemingly the feather in the cap of general manager Glen Grunwald's busy and successfull off season of signings, returning such key components as Alvin Williams, Antonio Davis, Jerome Williams and some guy named Vince. In the wake of all these signings, the addition of the former Houston Rockets mainstay was seen by many to be the final piece to the puzzle, putting the Raptors in a favorable position to at least meet the Lakers in the Finals. Of course, it didn't work out that way. The season was marred by injuries, inconsistency, and a seeming inablility to come up with a team strategy that made use of the strengths of the key players, and Olajuwon in particular was oft criticized for not fitting in with his teammates. Looking ahead at this year, especially with the loss of Keon Clark, who might have been the perfect fit, the question of what to do now remains largely unanswered. Earlier in the summer, when asked about the situation at center, Grunwald made an interesting comment..." When you take a closer look at the numbers, (Olajuwon) had a pretty good year. He was one of the top five centers in the league on a per-minute basis." Okay, that's the kind of comment GM's make several times a month, especially when defending their own moves, but Grunwald is usually not the type to blow a false note on his own horn, so I thought it might bear a closer look...and the results were surprising. Olajuwon averaged 7.1 points, 6 rebounds, 1.48 blocks, 1.21 steals, and 1.1 assists per game last year, while taking 6.9 shots in 22.6 minutes a game. These are all obviously well below his career norm, and at first glance would seem to support the claim of the critics. Olajuwon's position, however, is that he wasn't used properly, and especially that he wasn't used enough. The first of these claims is a farmiliar one to Rockets fans over the last couple of years, and hard to address. The second is a little easier...On an equal playing time basis, this is how Olajuwon stacks up against the better centers in the league. When his numbers are pro-rated over the minutes/game of the player he's compared with, the resluts are the following... PTs REBs BLKs STLs ASTs FGAs Mutombo 11.5 10.8 2.4 0.4 1.0 8.01 Olajuwon 11.5 9.7 2.4 2.0 1.7 10.9 Olawakandi 11.1 8.9 1.8 0.7 1.1 11.08 Olajuwon 10.2 8.5 2.1 1.7 1.6 9.73 Mourning 15.7 8.4 2.5 0.4 1.2 11.5 Olajuwon 10.3 8.7 2.1 1.8 1.6 9.9 B.Wallace 7.6 13.0 3.5 1.7 1.4 6.0 Olajuwon 11.5 9.7 2.4 2.0 1.8 11.1 J.O'Neal 19.0 10.5 2.3 0.6 1.6 15.7 Olajuwon 11.9 10.0 2.4 2.0 1.8 11.4 Robinson 12.2 8.3 1.8 1.1 1.2 8.6 Olajuwon 9.3 7.9 1.9 1.6 1.4 8.9 S.O'Neal 27.2 10.7 2.0 0.6 3.0 18.3 Olajuwon 11.4 9.6 2.4 2.0 1.7 10.9 Divac 11.1 8.4 1.2 1.0 3.7 9.0 Olajuwon 9.6 8.1 2.0 1.7 1.5 9.2 Campbell 13.9 6.9 1.8 0.8 1.3 10.3 Olajuwon 8.9 7.5 1.8 1.5 1.3 8.5 All right, you can see that, when measured against the best centers in the league, assuming he played the same minutes as those he is measured against, Olajuwon's production seems pretty solid.His scoring was obviously his weak link, but it should be noted that most of the others took more shots than he did, and he was playing in his first year with a new team/offense, something no one else on this list had to face. His rebounding numbers were more than acceptable, and in his secondary numbers,( blocks, steals, and assists ) he absolutely shines, matching or bettering his opponents in 23 of 27 matchups. There are, of course, many arguments against this means of arriving at answers; numbers don't always sustain themselves when minutes increase, Olajuwon can't play heavy minutes like these other guys, different teams use guys differently, there are lies, damn lies, and statistics...Addressing these arguments one by one... 1) To a degree, there is no answer to the argument that the numbers wouldn't have held up, there is only inference. Olajuwon says he could have gotten better with more time, familiarity with his teammates would certainly have increased, and it's harder to get into your rythm when you're playing erratically. Conversely, Olajuwon is getting older and more injury prone..However, a look at the numbers suggets he might have a case...His highest shooting % (.551-Apr.)came in the last month of the season, and his next two best shooting months (.500-Oct., .492-Dec.) were the two he played the most minutes. Add to that the fact that he shot better as a starter than coming off the bench(.467-.459), and it hardly seems like he needed the rest in order to perform better. 2) In terms of how many minutes he can cope with at his age, that's hard to determine, but the point here isn't that Hakeem should be playing 40 minutes a night, it's that he was playing quite well in the time he did get, certainly better than you would expect considering the complaints. 3) In terms of how guys are used, the best answer to that would be to do a comparison with another Raptor big man, Antonio Davis...(Given the same minutes.) PTs REBs BLKs STLs ASTs FGAs Davis 14.5 9.6 1.1 0.7 2.0 12.5 Olajuwon 12.2 10.2 2.5 2.1 1.9 11.7 Davis takes marginally more shots and scores a bit more, and he had more assists, but Olajuwon put up better rebounds, blocks,and steals. And no one is complaining about Antonio. In addition, when you consider what the Raptors need from their big man in the middle, rebounding and a defensive presence would rank pretty high, and the numbers indicate that Dream was providing that while he was in there. 4) Yeah, stats don't tell everything, but do you have a better objective means of analysis? Perception can take on a life of it's own, and the view that Olajuwon was a failure is certainly a popular one. My take is, considering that he was hurt, adjusting to a new team, and all the other injuries/confusion around him, Olajuwon had a pretty damn good year for the time he played. Was he the final piece? No, but that was probably expecting too much anyways, and given the lack of quality big men in the game today, he was hardly a weak spot. If he can accept the lesser profile role this team is offering him,if he can stay moderately healthy, and if his style of play can be worked into the overall team concept, I have absolutely no problem relying on Olajuwon for 25-30 minutes/game this year, and that goes a long way to resolving our 5-spot 'dilema'. Those are big 'if's, I'll grant you, but there's only one way to find out, and it's not like Indiana is banging down our door offering us Jermaine O'Neal for Eric Montross...The one thing which I suspect will be the hardest to overcome is style, as Olajuwon needs to reserve the left low block from baseline to elbow in order for his offensive flow to be unimpeded by teammates, and that was never fully resolved last year. Hopefully it can be this year, and I, for one, am looking forward to the results. Besides, what better options do we have?
So is MacBeth the official self-appointed columnist of the BBS now or something? Why are new posters using their first posts to start a thread written by JAG? Also, to stay on topic...I agree that Dream wasn't nearly as bad last season, numberwise, as he is considered. However, one of the biggest criticisms of Dream on this board is that he is way too injury prone, mostly due to his advancing age. There isn't a great deal of doubt on this board that, when completely healthy, Dream can pass for an adequate center for short amounts of time. But any contributions he gives a team cannot be counted on longterm because you have no idea when he will get his next crazy sounding injury.
I wrote that 'column' on another site, and asked Shadows to re-post it here for me, as a favour, because I thought BBS fans might be interested, and I don't know how to do that kind of internet thing...Is there a problem?
I totally agree with Olajuwon being injury prone. The other factor how ever is that a player like Antonio Davis draws double teams which Olajuwon no longer does. And this is significant bacause it creates more opportunities for the rest of the team, as long time Rockets fans can attest to.
MacBeth IS JAG. JAG forgot his password and thus had to start a new account, "MacBeth". This is detailed in that one thread in which heypartner thought too_good was BTM. This is the thread: EDIT - After looking for that thread, I see JAG-MacBeth has answered Freak's question. Er, easy there MacJAG (sorry but you will always be JAG to me). I think what Raven was saying is that it looks funny to have another poster, especially a brand new one give another poster props. I mean when I first read his post, I was confused if you wrote it or he did. Self-promotion is NOT a good thing, JAG. Trust me on this one, okay, because I learned first hand. Besides, you are too good of a poster to have to use that. And you mean to tell me as smart as a guy as you are (I mean that sincerely) that you don't know how to use your mouse or keyboard to "paint" text (copy text) from one place and then hit "paste" or control + V to the site where you want it?? Come on, man, I find that hard to believe.
Aaaahh....that explains the high quality of the opening post. I'll be sure to look out for MacBeth posts now....I never knew you were a big Toronto fan.
No, I seriously don't...The world of computers, internet stuff in particluar, is like a forest to me..I have a well worn path that I travel all the time, but when I veer off, even a little, I get lost. And I don't get how Shadow doing me a favor is promoting myself? By admitting I'm a computer idiot? P.S. I'm glad I'll always be JAG to you Manny...I miss my old name Oh, well, life goes on.... P.P.S...I just tried that paste thing with this, but the only commands that come up in bold are Undo, Delete, and Select All...By the way, while we're on the subject, how do I do that thing where you are answering another post, point by point, but the quoted text appears in bold, while your answers appear in normal text?
Well, it seemed like it to me, and I apologize for implying it. I just felt that you didn't have to go to the trouble of getting someone else to do that for you, but I'll drop it and hope that you accept my apology. BTW - There is nothing wrong with admitting that you are lacking in computer things. There ARE plenty of computer stuff that I'm clueless on. I've been lucky that stuff with the Internet and especially with this site are things that I was able to pick up on rather easily. But what is easy for one is difficult for another. I know how it must feel. If it makes you feel any better, I just quoted part of your post as "JAG". Oh, sorta like what I'm doing with this post?? It all has to do with HTML code. B is for Bold and i is for italics. What I always do is go to the post that I want to quote and hit the button to quote it. You will then see something that has a left bracket ([) followed by "QUOTE" and then a right bracket (]), then another left bracket, followed by "i" for italics and then a right bracket. Then you will see "Originally posted by insert name of poster here " followed by left bracket, a slash (which tells html code that you want to stop italicizing stuff), an "i", and a right bracket. Then a left bracket, "B" for bold, and a right bracket followed by the text that you want to quote is what you will see next. All you have to do to break up a post and address it point by point is to keep using the html code in this manner but remembering where you have to place the brackets, the commands like B and i and QUOTE, and the "/" to end thos commands. It would be very easy if you were here sitting next to my computer and can see me actually doing this; however, maybe my instructions are coherent enough for you to be able to do this by reading it in Canada. You would get great practice if you quoted this post and just studied the formats of the HTML code that I have been using. It took me awhile to get the hang of it, but if I can figure it out, anyone can.
