Donatas Motiejunas now a restricted free agent, no qualifying offer for Terrence Jones

Or they can just leave the QO and get 1 year of very cheap play for a guy they were fine with trading a few months ago. A guy who will be motivated to play for his next contract.

 

For sure. The threat of signing the QO is not nearly big enough to pull it and lose RFA and Bird Rights. This isn't a Terrence Jones situation where we are afraid of burning caproom.

The only reason GM's rescind QO is to create caproom for someone else. That's unlikely to happen

 

Exactly.

This will come down to whether DMo wants the fast money now...say 8-10m for a year and 2nd year non guaranteed, or sign the QO around 5m and hope his back holds up.

This is poker.....who is gonna blink!

DD

 

As a poker player, do the math, assuming the 2nd yr becomes guaranteed by good play

$8-10m + $8-10m = $16-$20m for two years

A QO of $4.4m requires a big jump 2nd year to make up the difference.

$4.4m + $12-$16m = $16-$20m

They are not that far away. The freedom the QO gives you might not pay off. It's not a slam dunk even for a good year this year.

 

Actually HP it is a slam dunk, as he will not be limited next year when the salary cap rises again and teams will have more money to spend and assuming he is healthy he is on the market as an UFA.

It is basically take the 4m now but give up the option for a lot more guarantee next year.

So, 8m-10m guaranteed....with a potential 8-10m next year.

vs.

5m guaranteed, with a potential 15m for 4 years guaranteed at the end of this year...because of the one time jump in the salary cap, and more teams having money, if he takes the 2 year deal and the rox renew - he might also be traded to hell anywhere....so he loses leverage or control there.

Either the Rockets guarantee the 2nd year or significantly up their offer, or he should sign the QO and control his own fate....

DD

 

Check the math again.

Did you look at it? $15m does not get you there. If $4m + $15m is what you call his max potential, the $8-10m for two years gets you there, if not higher.

It is not worth the risk it to sign a QO, when your max potential is the same as a 1+1.

 

Hey DaDakota,

Let's also look at the compromise...which is likely enough to discuss. Would you not sign the same $8-10m if both years are guaranteed, as a compromise?

If Morey is offering $8-10m per in a 1+1, I think it's not about more money, just about insurance. imo, DMo will sign that with 2nd yr guaranteed. He won't hold out for >$12m.

 

Yeah, I do think he would take that deal if they were both guaranteed.

Because it also makes him an UFA at the end of year 2, if Morey does him a dirty and trades him again.

I do believe that the trade has influenced DMo's decision making, and probably wants to control where he goes for the core part of his career.

DD

 

Taking the QO would pay huge dividends *if* DMo has a healthy and productive year, since he would likely sign a multiyear contract next season at around $15m+ per year. So the math might look more like this:

$8-10m + no second year = $8-10m if injured or doesn't play well

vs.

$4.4m (QO) + $45m over 3 years = about $50m

That's a huge difference. But it's also a big risk, because if DMo's injuries end up curtailing his career, that extra $4-6m for this year could come in handy.
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No, that's not correct calculation of salaries.

That is not comparing apples to apples. You are comparing an injured Dmo to a DMo that has a great year.

A bad year would look like this

$8-10m + cut and UFA for whatever he can get

vs

$4.4m and UFA with equal contract to above.

He loses. If he has a good year, the $4m (QO) plus $15m multiyear is the same as $10m 1+1 with a $15m multiyear following that.

 

You're right -- assuming his bad year isn't due to an injury that prevents him from continuing. If his back becomes an issue, he might never get that multiyear contract.

That said, I love the guy and what he brings, and I'm hoping he gets a contract he can live with that keeps him around a few years.
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If he was that good and healthy some other team would offer him more right now

 

However, signing the $15m multiyear quicker does get him insurance quicker.

The good year scenario of a $10m + $10m + ($15m multiyear in 3rd year) doesn't work if he has a significantly down year in year 2. That's the contract year scenario where he plays good for only one year only and gets paid, then falls off.

 

No they wouldn't because they know the Rockets can match.

They would have to WAY overpay him, ala Parsons.

DD

 

If the Rockets match they lose nothing

A team would offer him a good deal if he was worth it

 

This is not true.

They didn't overpay Parsons, and certainly didn't WAY overpay him. Let's not rewrite history to make a point. Cuban put a wrench in it with the Player Option and Trade Kicker, knowing Morey has a rule to not sign those except for superstars, a precedence he won't set for non-franchise players. But the dollar value he said he wanted to match.

DMo is not getting $12m offers, not because teams fear Rockets will match, but because they don't want to give him those offers. This fear of matching is overblown.

 

Who is going to offer $8-10m?

If I had not found a roster spot in four years, had a history of back problems, and had a trade rescinded due to health reasons, I'd jump on a $5m QO and stick it in the bank as fast as I could.

 

His price is firm for next season it's 4m period

 

To add on...

If he has faith in his back/abilities, take the QO, prove everybody wrong and come back for big bucks next year.

If he has concern for his back/abilities, grab the cash while you can and take the QO to the bank.

 

It doesn't pay off. We've been running the salary numbers above.

The QO is just not a good idea, unless Morey is well below the Ezeli and Zeller offers of $8m + $8m (Unguaranteed 2nd yr). You have to believe his agent can at least argue that Ezeli and Zeller contracts are the market.