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Does Morey hate the PF position like he hates long 2's?

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by just a word, Aug 27, 2013.

  1. just a word

    just a word Member

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    I had this thought today while reading an article about how there STILL seems to be essentially a hole at PF despite an otherwise awesome off-season of acquisitions, and about Morey's love of the tweener PF.

    I don't know whether which is the chicken and which is the egg but

    1) Morey hates the long 2 (this has been documented in several threads, just search this forum for 'Moreyball' or 'long 2')

    2) Morey appears to either not invest much money/energy/resources into the PF position...

    OR he simply does not highly value PF's that can't either take it to the rim or shoot 3's. And there aren't many/any of them available for signing at the value he puts them at.

    While I think that being able to shoot the long 2 is necessary as a failsafe in late-clock situations when all other methods fail, simply mathematically speaking it should not be a staple of the offense unless the 2pt shot's percentage is over about 60%. (ie. for the purposes of this discussion, I'm calling a 'long 2' *any* 2pt shot that has a FG% less than 60%.) I wouldn't be surprised if Morey takes this view because of what he's said and done these past couple seasons and off-seasons.


    What does this mean for the Rocket's roster?

    Looking at both the roster and the signings, for the most part it seems to be comprised of shooters/ball-handlers and centers/defense.

    Except for that finicky problem of TJones, DMo, and Smith at PF.

    TJones
    I know that Jones tries for that 3pt every so often but usually fails during 2012-2013; however he seemed to be pretty consistent around the rim, doesn't seem to attempt long 2's, and apparently kicked ass during Orlando Summer League. I'm really looking forward to see if it works during camp/preseason.

    DMo
    DMo seems to not hit the 3pt and/or get shoved around in the post during 2013, but apparently gained a lot of muscle during the summer. I've not followed up with how he's been doing during Euroleague but if Houston keeps him I think it boils down to how fast he picks up defense. And short of that if he can do just ONE thing excellently, since during 2012-2013, imo, he did many things but not any one of them made me wow (3pt shot wasn't consistent, post moves were rushed, defense was not there yet, and he was often out of position to rebound because of the stretch 4 spacing). Maybe he'll improve in defense enough to stay on the floor or maybe his 3pt shot becomes consistent. If he can't do either of these two things, I honestly would be surprised if he gets traded or cut.

    I don't even think his post game can save him (even if he gained enough muscle to hold position) since the long 2 is a bailout shot, and I betting that those will go to Howard or Harden at the end of possessions.

    Smith
    Honestly I have him most likely to get cut/traded. The stats LOVE Smith, but they love him because the boxscore stats and most public stats heavily weigh offense. For 2012-2013, Smith could barely stay on the floor either because of defense or of fouls, and most number crunching nba blogs that I've seen doesn't take this into account. But because he can do ONE thing really well (amazing hands for catching and finishing) it gives him potential and makes him tradable. I don't know that Smith can get any more range at this point which means that he needs to massively improve on defense.

    But if Jones gets his 3 solid AND improved on defense then imo Smith is pretty much gone.

    Additionally, given Morey's comments during his recent AMA about positional flexibility and the recent signings, I wouldn't be surprised if both DMo and Smith are gone in exchange for a draft pick or two. Then, they've have only one 'true' PF (granted, undersized), and either going large with Howard at PF or going small with a SF at PF. And thus both minimizing the long 2 AND the actual PF position.

    Which might be hilarious if this comes true, because McHale. :grin:
     
  2. Blake

    Blake Contributing Member

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    Morey was inappropriately touched by a PF when he was young

    Probably has to do with budgets and availiability
     
  3. coachbadlee

    coachbadlee Member

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    If he reads Clutchfans, right now, i'm pretty sure he hates you.
     
  4. Richie_Rich

    Richie_Rich Member
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    2007: Morey absolutely fleeces Spurs for International star, PF Luis Scola (in exchange for VSpan, future 2nd rd pick, and cash considerations).

    2010: Morey in hot pursuit of FA Chris Bosh (ipads and fan caravan) but then The Decision happened.

    2011: Commissioner Stern rejects Morey's trade for PF Pau Gasol. (all well documented in the GARM)

    2012: Morey invests heavily (THREE 1st rd picks) on PF Royce White, T Jones, and DMo.

    Not sure I agree, OP. Morey doesn't seem to hate quality PFs at all. Just hasn't had much luck... yet.
     
  5. dobro1229

    dobro1229 Contributing Member

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    Morey's draft history -

    2013- Isiah Canaan
    2012- Jeremy Lamb, Royce White, Terrence Jones, Furkan Aldemir
    2011- Marcus Morris, Donatas Motiejunas, Chandler Parsons
    2010- Patrick Patterson

    Out of the last 9 players Morey has drafted 6 of those have been PF's, and none of them fit the mold coming out of college of Europe as "Stretch PF's".

    Sure Morris & Patterson where decent shooters in College but neither were considered specialists. Adding the 3 point shot in their 2nd and 3rd seasons actually increased their value to the team in the short term & also most likely added value to most teams across the league that might look to acquire them.

    Draft picks are considered currency among NBA GM's. The fact that he used 6 of the last 9 draft picks on trying to find high upside talent at that position means that he probably is very concerned about the future of the position for the team moving forward. Other than Aldemir and Patterson, the other 4 PF's have been considered high-upside picks. There were safer picks at that position on draft night, but obviously Morey was going for something great.... no adequate.... So I disagree with your opinion about the unimportance of this position.

    The PF position is just as important as any other position on the floor. That's why there is no room for error, and its going to take a real stud to come in or come up through the development farm to solidify the position moving forward. Lets hope that D-Mo or Jones take that leap forward this Summer & Fall to get the job done.
     
    1 person likes this.
  6. xiki

    xiki Contributing Member

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    More likely chortling. Not enough emotional evocation from this to offer hate in return.
     
  7. cbk41

    cbk41 Member

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    Rarely are teams solid at all 5 positions. And if they are--they tend to be of average NBA quality.
     
  8. mr. 13 in 33

    mr. 13 in 33 Member

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    we once broke the record for most power forwards on a team but they got waived and traded
     
  9. chenjy9

    chenjy9 Numbers Don't Lie
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    Terrible thread... Morey has constantly tried to fill the hole at PF. It just so happens that no one turned out good enough or did not want to play for us.
     
  10. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    I think Aldemir was drafted to be a center. Morris was drafted to be a SF/stretch 4. Motiejunas was hitting 40%+ during Italian League play the year he was drafted. I think the expectation was that he had both the inside and outside game.
     
  11. jtr

    jtr Contributing Member

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    What don't the Rockets need from the power forward position?

    1: Scoring - This team didn't have a problem scoring before they added Howard.
    2: Better than below average rebounding - Next season Howard or Asik will always be on the court. Plus Parsons, Harden and Lin are average to above average rebounding.
    3: Better than below average defense - With Howard or Asik always on the floor there will be a paint protecting center behind the power forward at all times.
    4: A back to the basket game.

    What do the Rockets need from the power forward position?

    1: The ability to spread the floor on offense. A 35% 3 point FG%.
    2: Decent passing. The ability to rotate the ball on the wing and perhaps some touch passing to a posting up Howard.
    3: A cheap salary. This is critical. Every dollar not spent on the power forward position can be allocated to more important positions.
    4: The ability to run the floor on the break.
     
  12. intergalactic

    intergalactic Contributing Member

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    Interesting insight, OP. It's true that Morey has drafted a lot of PFs, but he has also repeatedly said that playing small is generally better than playing big (except against certain matchups).

    I think the essential question is: what is the ideal type of PF for the current NBA? Lately the main possible answers seem to be a taller SF (Parsons, Harrison Barnes), or a PnR finisher (Tiago Splitter, Greg Smith). The rarer answer is a low-post player (David West, Zach Randolph).

    It's relatively easy to get competent players of either of the first two types, but hard to get a good player of the last type. So it's a big investment to try to do it.

    The hard question is, if we could develop a solid post-game PF, would we have a better lineup than with playing Chandler as a stretch 4? It might be useful situationally, but it's a lot of effort to groom someone into that.
     
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  13. cdogg61

    cdogg61 New Member

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    I think we will need a good power forward and I did hope early in the off season we could've gotten Josh Smith to go with what we got now but that's now out we need to start off really good and hopefully with some help we can get lucky we land one to me it don't have to be a all start but someone who can shoot and block shots t Jones or demo I hope can play that position well enough but for them to be so young the ref. Seem to call fouls on them because the west has tons of great men playing that position it's going to make it difficult for us to make it out of the west come on clutch fans let me no how you all feel
     
  14. dobro1229

    dobro1229 Contributing Member

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    Talk about trying to nit-pick....(naw never on Clutchfans ;) ) There is and has always been a high probability that all of those 6 players would be some form of PF.... whether it be undersized Center, or oversized SF thats besides the point.

    -D'Mo was scouted enough to know that his specialty & NBA role was not to just be a 3 point specialist and you know this well enough. If that's all they were looking for they would have stuck with the better Euro spread 4 in Mirotic in that draft. They were obviously looking for something more than outside shooting, and thats the point.

    Also- Im not even mentioning the other PF's (or oversized SF's/undersized C's) Morey acquired by other methods - J. Hill, T. Robinson, Smith, etc.

    Point is... Morey is/has been taking risks to find a great... not just good solution for that position or roll on the team. If that position was not important, he would have kept status quo and gone with safe picks & transactions to get just a roll player that fit his system.
     
  15. Roxnostalgia

    Roxnostalgia Contributing Member

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    I, for one, love a good long deuce. Get it all out at once.
     
  16. bmd

    bmd Member

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    Disliking long 2's isn't a Morey thing... it's a smart fundamental basketball thing and has been for a long time.

    It's been called the worst shot in basketball for a long, long time... way before all this statistical analysis has been popular.
     
  17. okierock

    okierock Contributing Member

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    As per normal Morey is running through as many possible talents as he can as cheaply as possible to find a player at the PF. He hasn't been overly successful but he will continue.

    I'm ok with that.
     
  18. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    Agree with this. Morey definitely is open to try different avenues. Morey is also big on development. I find it very comforting that Morris and Patterson both developed three point shots. Jones and Motiejunas have the potential to develop 3 pt shots. I don't think White will.
     
  19. allaroundplayer

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    The PF position evolved because of Dirk winning the championship with Dallas 3 years ago.

    Now Melo & Lebron (plus Durant at times) moved to PF because it makes for a more dangerous team offensively.

    So, it's a valuable position if you can find the right player, but it's hard to find that combination of skill, size and athleticism (obviously if those are the new prototypes), almost as difficult as finding a center.

    So, Morey has just had a difficult time finding the new breed PF.

    & that is why I think he should have signed Josh Smith instead of Dwight Howard.

    I think you can get away with playing Jones or D-Mo at center much easier (which I want to see them playing there anyway) if you have a good PF like Josh Smith.
     
  20. kuku

    kuku Contributing Member

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    If OP thinks Morey hates the PF position, then you have no idea how difficult it it to find talents at that height.

    There are 13,600,000 US men who are between 6'1" and 6'4". Probably 1/5 of them are 'basketball age.' So you have roughly 2,700,000 men to select for a PG or undersized SG. The odds of becoming an NBA player from this group of men are stacked against them, probably about 27,000:1.

    However there are only 135,000 men who are between 6'7" - 6'10" and 1/5 of that would be basketball age. The selection narrows down to 27,000 men, roughly 1/100 compared to PG's. There simply isn't enough people to select from. The odds of becoming an NBA player from this group is as low as 270:1.

    Let me put it this way.....if Jones, DMo, Morris, TRob, or PPat were 6'2'', they simply aren't talented enough to be NBA players.

    Or you can say if Nate Robinson were 6'10", he probably would be the greatest NBA player in history....GOAT!
     
    #20 kuku, Aug 27, 2013
    Last edited: Aug 27, 2013
    1 person likes this.

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