Nash is in. 100% Yao will need his international career to make it, unless he comes back better than ever.
In the later years of the ABA (early-mid 1970's) the ABA was definitely very close to or at par with the NBA in terms of talent. Early ABA numbers are suspect but not late ABA numbers in my opinion. Keep in mind that there was no All NBA Third Team and Gilmore was probably the third best center or so in the NBA of his era (behind KAJ, Moses Malone later, and the two years Walton was not broken), still an elite defender and rebounder, and solid scorer in the paint. I'd argue that in his ABA prime, Gilmore was even better than Walton, and Walton is in the Hall based on two prime years. Even if we completely ignore his ABA years, and disregard the last two seasons of his career when he was washed up (that is, we take 1976-77 through 1985-86), Gilmore averaged 19.0/11.1/2.1 ast/2.14 blk on 60%/72%, definitely HOF worthy numbers in a very strong era for centers, and he has the longevity and was an elite defender. There is no question IMO that Artis Gilmore deserves to be in the Hall of Fame.
I say no it doesn't mean hof... Someone could have one great year then just fall off. So no I would say at least 2 MVP awards will do.