Thank you for pointing this out. This is the most important. Not if he scores 30ppg. But never forget the importance of a Kerr/Paxton/Horry. It's the "stud" that gives those player the situation to be open in the first place.
GP may be having a better "Point Guard" season, over 10APG. But overall though - Steve is having an incredible season and doing better than GP (Pts/Rebs). Steve is redefining the PG role, so the old stigma that a PG has to have a high APG avg may not apply anymore. Before the season started, I would have picked Kidd over Francis, now Francis would be my #1 pick (just like in my fantasy league). A 30ppg player means playoffs if we have a sub 90ppg defense. That is really what it all comes down to - defense. With our 3 shot blockers we should be able to force the other team to stay outside. With great defenders like KT and Hawkins we are looking very good on defense.
great post Smeg. Now figure out what the threshold is for rebounds from the frontcourt to make the playoffs. By the time you finish w/ those stats, Yao will be wearing bling bling necklaces and doing the karate crotch chop w/ 26/12/3 per.
I'm surprised no one mentioned Stack 2 years ago. I believe he averaged something like 29.7ppg? His team was awful, and they didn't win a lot, and don't think they made the playoffs. If they did, 7th or 8th seed in the East that year wasn't say much, if anything at all. I hope Steve doesn't average 30ppg this season. I doubt any of those teams that had 30ppg winners had the supporting cast Francis has. Francis probably has the most talented supporting cast to a 30ppg scorer in history. I hope he ends the season with 26ppg, 6.5ast, 5reb, 2.8TO's or less. Only 2.8 because he started the season off with a new system, and had 7 and 8 TO games which may drag down his average. But, all this is irrelevant. because we will win games and make the playoffs. Here's what's scary: Is there anyone here who can honestly say Francis WON'T take it up a notch MORE in the playoffs? I can easily see 33ppg, 7assists, and 7rebounds in the p]layoffs for him.
GP is averaginig 21ppg, 11apg, 5rpg, 2TO, and 2stls. He is pretty much the best point guard in the league. His Team is also pulling out victories by a greater margin. TMac and Grant Hill are the best all-around players in the league.(check their stats come the allstar break) My question is what is the success rate of a team who's point guard finishes in the top 4 in league scoring averaging at least 27 or more points a game?
None of these players are PGs. I'm not trying to start another run on "Steve is a SG" thing. But it is very unlikely for a PG to score more than 30 over the whole season unless his team sucks, which won't get them to the playoffs. It'd be interesting to see how many PG scored more than 30ppg and how their teams did in terms of games won.
Thank you Einstein - I'm hazarding a guess that a lot of 30ppg scorers have a decent ability to make the big shots at clutch-time (and if they don't, we've seen that Steve does). The point Smeg makes is clear, if a player on a team is scoring 30ppg, then it is quite unlikely that team misses the playoffs. He's not entering into any debates about when or where the points are scoerd, just noting the history of 30ppg scorers (and why not? We haven't had someone at the Rockets whose current average is 30 for a while...)
And the crowd goes wild! Ooooohhh, aahhhh! A Dunk! Wow! Ooooh! Ahhh!! Big Frikin woop! It's nice that you feel that it's important that we get in the playoffs (and then get knocked right out). Considering that 30ppg is a shoe-in, right? Sorry, but I can't stand that type of hype-basketball think. In this world of over-hyped players and ESPN dunks, 30ppg has too much value. It's too shallow for the long haul. What counts? Playing as a team and winning in the playoffs. Yes. You need a leader than can "get his shot." But that's besides the point. Bird or Jordan could score 40! But they could also score 15, and still win. Smegs post was more a feel-good novelty, than a "shoe-in" for the playoffs. Don't believe me? See all leaders that average less than 30ppg and were able to get to the playoffs (and win/or lose). When the team is playing in sync, and as a team. You wont care how many points anyone scores. It's one unit! So, Smeg says that because Francis is scoring 30ppg we'll make the playoffs? I say, if we get into the playoffs, it will be MORE than just Francis's ability to get 30ppg. It will be because of the other stuff. And I want to win in the playoffs. Not just get there. P.S. If you want value in stat? Look at 30ppg, or 20, or 25, or 28, WITH +50FG%. That's more about intangibles, decision making and using his teammates to get the best shot possible. If you want a stat with NO VALUE. See, Allen Iverson's ppg + his FG%.
I think you're absolutely missing the point! You seem to be the one obsessed about how much a 'higlight reel novelty' the 30ppg average is - Smeg makes no such observation that it's all about exciting basketball. Instead he turns to history to show that a team that includes a 30+ per game scorer is just about a lock to make the playoffs. No mention is made of championships - that's your input - and while we all want championships, I'm certain that even your pitiable intellect will be able to discern that there haven't been too many teams jump from the base of the lottery to the top of the heap in one season. Forgive our excitement about actually making the playoffs - sorry if that isn't up to your lofty standards, sorry if our team might actually grow from a trip to the post-season, sorry if anything but a ring means that you will label the Francis a ball-hog and Ming a bust. Try reading people's posts for what they do say and not for what they don't. I don't know how many of us actually expect Steve to average over 30 a game - I certainly don't, nor do I care; wins and a trip to the playoffs is far more important. But don't deny the historical fact that teams with a 30+ per game scorer actually make the post-season. Why does this translate to ESPN highlights?
Sigh.... You'll never learn. Good Smeg. He made a point. Congrats. Now, tell me. If Francis'es PPG manages to settle back down to 29 or 28 or 27, does that mean that we ARE STILL going to the playoffs? Yes, no? Or, do you have a double standard in your point and say we will ALSO make it because SF was able to hold 30ppg for half a season, or 3/4? What? Huh? See my point? P.S. I say the PPG, does NOT matter. It's the FG%, teamwork, defense, and chemistry. This will contribute to his PPG, but not necessarily the responsible stats for that playoff * appearance *. I'm also saying that if he takes care of the items listed above. Then, he will go farther than just a "appearance." Instead of just getting there, and getting kicked out. Like Iverson's wonderful PPG lead him.
Just to add something to what you were saying, I was looking at Steves stats this morning and noticed something interesting. Hes scoring 30PPG. The reason for that is, hes taking approximately 5/6 more shots a game and shooting a better percentage than his previous 3 years. My gut feeling is, Steves shooting % will level off and probably end up around 45, possibly as high as 47%. So in the end, if Steve continues to shoot more than he has in the past, does this support the arguement around here that Steve's game is at another level this year?
DavidS, I think you're missing the point also. I don't think anyone is saying that if Francis doesn't average 30 points per game for an entire season we won't make the playoffs. I also don't think anyone is saying that the Rockets definitely make the playoffs if Steve scores 30 points per game. I mean, it's nice that <b>you believe</b> that PPG does NOT matter, but that's just your own subjective opinion. SmeggySmeg gave a substantial amount of interesting, objective data that supports the notion that a team with a 30 ppg scorer tends to make the playoffs. Is it rock solid evidence? No. But after seeing all of it, you have to consider that there may be some truth to it. And I agree with you that this doesn't mean anything when you consider actually <b>winning</b> in the playoffs, but I don't think anyone was arguing that. Call me short-sighted, but at this point I'm more concerned about making the playoffs and getting some postseason experience than winning a championship. By the way, this is one of the most interesting threads I've seen in a while. Kudos to the thread-starter.
DCKid, If you back at my original post to Smeg you'll see that I posted a short point of view. It didn't have much detail. But, DrNuegebauer could not "let sleeping dogs lie." My 1st post was about a different point of view. But I DO understand what Smeg was trying to say. But it was DrNuegebauer that questioned my 1st post, when in turn caused me to have to explain myself which I didn't want to do in the first place because it goes into a lot of other details of the *game* that really should be talked about in another thread, rather than this thread. At lot of debates get started like that; going off topic not because it was planed, but it just happens that way.
thanks guys, nice attempted save i wasn't stating no 30ppg scorer mean missed playoffs or 30ppg scorer means a title or where FG% fits in, all that appears clear is most everyone understood the one point that i was trying to make via historical date for the last 20 years, that and that some posters can't read and particpate in a constructive way and that they then head back to my ignore list once again.
