Im worried about Luis Garcia. He looked like crap in his last start. Wasn’t the same. I wonder, to a lesser extent, about Urquidy too.
https://www.si.com/mlb/2021/06/14/sticky-stuff-cleanup-the-opener After 10 consecutive weeks when MLB average four-seam spin rate hovered between 2,306 rpms to 2,329 rpms, last week it suddenly dropped 45 rpms to a season-low 2,269. Batting average against four-seamers is up 11 points in June. Slugging against the pitch is up 18 points this month. Variation in individual spin rate is not by itself proof of violating baseball rules. Among pitchers who hit two-year lows in fastball or cutter spin rate last week were Trevor Bauer of the Dodgers, Gerrit Cole and Aroldis Chapman of the Yankees, Freddy Peralta and Corbin Burnes of the Brewers, and Lucas Sims of the Reds. On Sunday Shane Bieber of Cleveland saw a 98-rpm drop in his spin rate while giving up a two-year high five runs to Seattle, the worst hitting team in history (.209). (After this story was published, Cleveland placed Bieber on the injured list with a right-shoulder strain.) MLB Four-Seam Fastballs by Month RPM Avg. SLG April 2,313 .248 .437 May 2,324 .248 .442 June 2,290 .259 .460 Among noticeable drops in fastball spin rate since June 3 are those of Bauer (-210), Burnes (-163), Sims (-117), Cole (-92), Chapman (-72), Peralta (-69) and Bieber (-50). Four-Seam Fastballs by Spin Rate, MLB 2021 RPM Avg. SLG <2,000 .295 .518 2,000-2,199 .273 .474 2,200-2,399 .253 .451 2,400-2,599 .231 .417 2,600-2,799 .217 .374 >2,800 .144 .259 Bauer Four-Seam Fastball by Spin Rate, 2016-21 RPMs Avg. SLG MPH 2,699 and less .275 .486 94.3 2,700+ .152 .333 93.8 Four-seamers thrown with an average spin rate of 2,269, which we saw last week, resemble four-seamers from 2017 (2,266), before cheating exploded. Instead of a .250 batting average against fastballs as we have seen this year, we might return to the .261 batting average we saw against those 2017 fastballs. An 11-point improvement against four-seamers and a cleaner game? Sign me up. https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id...-substance-face-10-day-suspension-sources-say Major League Baseball is expected to announce Tuesday that it will suspend players caught with any foreign substance for 10 days with pay to help curtail the widespread use of grip enhancers by pitchers around the league, sources familiar with the plans told ESPN. The league is expected to distribute a memo to teams -- which have been briefed on the broad strokes of the policy change -- that outlines its plans to penalize all players caught by umpires with any foreign substance on their person, from the widely used sunscreen-and-rosin combination to Spider Tack, an industrial glue that has become a favorite among pitchers who want to generate more spin on the ball. The liberal interpretation of Rules 3.01 and 6.02(c), which ban the use of foreign substances, would discipline all substances the same. While there is a "broad consensus among players that Spider Tack is over the line," a high-ranking person on the players' side told ESPN on Monday, the full ban of all grip agents could rankle players. A longtime umpire told ESPN the hard line is vital as he and his brethren attempt an on-the-fly enforcement of a rule that for years has been ignored. However significant players' reliance on sticky stuff has become, and regardless of how responsible teams and the league were for enabling another cheating scandal to burrow its way into baseball, the efforts to rid the game of grip enhancers have arrived and will begin in earnest June 21, sources said. Until then, players will continue trying to unlearn years of using various substances. Some teams already have asked pitchers who relied heavily on foreign substances to throw bullpen sessions without any grip enhancers to prepare for the future, two players and an official told ESPN. Teams recently received reports from the league of pitchers on their team that had been caught using substances, two general managers told ESPN. That sort of preparation portends a change that already has taken root. Multiple pitchers who asked for anonymity to avoid any punishment from the league told ESPN they either have stopped using foreign substances altogether or shifted from Spider Tack to pine tar -- from a relatively new and controversial product to one whose place in baseball dates back decades. Multiple players said they were hopeful that MLB would differentiate among the substances and buy time before the potential issuance of a legal, universal substance pitchers can use for grip. While MLB has explored creating such a product, it has yet to formulate one that serves as a grip enhancer while not being a performance enhancer. Between the grip issue and the league changing the composition of the ball itself this winter, players said they hope to have more input in the future. While the sample is small, the leaguewide batting average since June 3 -- when the first reports about the league's crackdown surfaced -- is .247, a substantial jump from the .236 to that point in the season. The leaguewide spin rate on fastballs is down substantively, too, a sign that already some pitchers have stopped using foreign substances altogether -- or at least switched grip agents.
Wouldn't be too concerned about Garcia yet. He's doing fine overall. Urquidy little dicey, but we'll see too.
The reductions of spin rate reductions are remarkably proportional to temperature and humidity increases causing perspiration and thinning air. Offensive production increases are also consistently higher as temperatures rise and the air gets thinner. There's nothing damning about the stats.
Starting pitchers vs. Spin Rate Change (6/2/21) (min 100 fastballs prior to 6/2/21 and 1 post 6/2/21) player_name delta spin rate Bauer, Trevor 210 Bundy, Dylan 160 Kaprielian, James 155 Anderson, Tyler 137 Crowe, Wil 125 Mahle, Tyler 124 González, Chi Chi 117 Bubic, Kris 93 Cole, Gerrit 92 Mize, Casey 78 DeSclafani, Anthony 76 Hill, Rich 75 Dunn, Justin 74 Brubaker, JT 72 Cease, Dylan 71 Peralta, Freddy 69 Taillon, Jameson 67 Lyles, Jordan 66 Lester, Jon 65 Gray, Sonny 64 Kershaw, Clayton 64 Foltynewicz, Mike 61 Lynn, Lance 57 Smyly, Drew 56 Alzolay, Adbert 55 Canning, Griffin 54 Glasnow, Tyler 54 Minor, Mike 54 Skubal, Tarik 52 Bieber, Shane 50 Wacha, Michael 48 Corbin, Patrick 46 Bassitt, Chris 46 Ureña, José 45 Zimmermann, Bruce 45 Woodruff, Brandon 45 Kelly, Merrill 44 Heaney, Andrew 44 Berríos, José 41 Velasquez, Vince 38 Bumgarner, Madison 38 Urías, Julio 37 Buehler, Walker 34 Eovaldi, Nathan 33 Kremer, Dean 33 Keller, Mitch 33 Greinke, Zack 31 McClanahan, Shane 31 López, Jorge 30 Montas, Frankie 30 Shoemaker, Matt 29 Ohtani, Shohei 27 Rogers, Trevor 23 Pineda, Michael 21 McKenzie, Triston 21 Boyd, Matthew 21 Irvin, Cole 20 Nola, Aaron 20 Gibson, Kyle 18 Ryu, Hyun Jin 17 Anderson, Ian 17 Peterson, David 17 Fried, Max 15 Kim, Kwang Hyun 14 Gilbert, Logan 13 Happ, J.A. 13 López, Pablo 12 Snell, Blake 12 Flexen, Chris 11 Martínez, Carlos 10 Miley, Wade 10 Civale, Aaron 9 Walker, Taijuan 8 Alcantara, Sandy 7 Gant, John 7 Odorizzi, Jake 3 Morton, Charlie 3 Ross, Joe 2 Rodriguez, Eduardo 2 Gausman, Kevin 0 Cueto, Johnny -4 Wheeler, Zack -8 Paddack, Chris -9 Pivetta, Nick -9 Weathers, Ryan -12 Turnbull, Spencer -13 Giolito, Lucas -14 Senzatela, Antonio -16 Scherzer, Max -16 Oviedo, Johan -18 Ray, Robbie -23 Montgomery, Jordan -27 Urquidy, José -32 Maeda, Kenta -37 Hendricks, Kyle -38 Richards, Garrett -39 Márquez, Germán -40 Harvey, Matt -40 Stripling, Ross -40 Gomber, Austin -41 Wainwright, Adam -41 Houser, Adrian -43 Poteet, Cody -43 Garcia, Luis -44 Musgrove, Joe -49 Gray, Jon -50 Keller, Brad -52 Germán, Domingo -57 Rodón, Carlos -61 deGrom, Jacob -62 Darvish, Yu -72 Kikuchi, Yusei -76 Castillo, Luis -79 Means, John -83
I took all starters with 100 fastballs prior to 6/2 and I did a before spin rate - after spin rate for this date. Positive numbers indicate spin rate dropped after the minor leaguers got suspended. Negative numbers indicate spin rates increased. As there is a negative 83, I assumed there is a gray area of fluctuation between -83 and +83 that a guy may or may not be a cheater. Guys in red, >83 rpm drop, are most likely cheaters. On the one pitch, any SP that threw 100 fastballs prior to 6/2, but did not throw a fastball as a starter after 6/2 were omitted.
thanks for the clarification. I ended up barely getting my brain around it. There is footage out there of Means obviously using a substance from his glove on the ball.
