Do you remember how crappy everyone felt after the Rockets loss to the 76ers?

Yea, I saw that. Can you see me IMing you on the right side of the worksheet?

 

Back to Back kills you whether you're injured or not. I wouldn't be surprised if we lost some of these games even if we're fully healthy. 30 minutes of jumping, shoving, bashing, running really breaks down your system. Not to mention, you play at night, sometimes late at night. That really kills your concentration in the game.

 

i agree... nice thread

 

Yup, awesome thread!
<br>
Probably has something to do with the fact that it took place in the early hours of Saturday morning before most people with backless arguments wake up...

 

which was the game that people declared tmac as having given up on the rox? was it this game?

 

jsmee2000 and I further updated his spreadsheet to get more accurate SOS rankings. Check the 2nd and 3rd tabs at the bottom of the page:

http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=pO4gPI-zQvWKP2lShaQwRRA

The jsmee2000 SOS rankings on the 3rd sheet are based on Adjusted Hollinger SOS ratings which are determined by adding standard Hollinger SOS ratings to weighted values for the number of back-to-backs compared to league average and the number of "4 games in 5 nights" compared to league average. I assume he would have factored in road games as well but he had other stuff to do.

The Brooksball SOS rankings on the 2nd sheet factor in a team's number of back-to-backs, number of "4 games in 5 nights" and number of road games along with modified values for both Hollinger and Sagarin SOS rankings (if a team is ranked 1-5 they get a value of 1, ranked 6-10 they get a value of 2, etc...).

I think jsmee's formula is better but in both cases, the Rockets' SOS ranked much higher after adjusting for these additional factors.

 

Nice that a couple of dudes with common sense, a little time and a spreadsheet can shake up the Holy Hollinger metrics

Thanks, guys

 

It was mostly jsmee... I just worked off of what he put together. His math skills are far better than mine.

 

Top work guys!

If I payed more attention (and actually enjoyed) statistics in uni, I'd probably have fun working out what you did there.

Hopefully with more constantly improving team cohesion, and a better spread of games over the end of the season, this team is going to finish the season very well.

 

He had to pwn you multiple times before you got on board with what he was saying. At least in the end you agree with him.

 

If that makes you feel better.

The fact remains that the Rockets have had the 9th easiest schedule according to Hollinger, which was my original point.

What I learned from jsmee's efforts is that scheduling played a much bigger factor than I thought without checking the data.

All said and done, we've had a few more b2bs and road games than league average while we've played relatively easier opponents.

So yea, I was partially pwned as you put it. But remember, the formulas jsmee and I used in his spreadsheet are nothing more than the work of two CFs. They aren't the final word. We were also able to discuss this topic and work together for a few hours online without using childish words like "pwn".

 

Pretty nice spreadsheet. It comfirms what should be common knowledge to the fans here: We've had a tough schedule. What's funny is that this team is poised for a second half surge and the talking heads have already cast this team aside. I'm still confident this team will get a top 3 (probably 2) finish in the conference. Other teams have a lot more back to backs and road games to finish their season with than the Rockets. I think JVG said in a recent interview "that if anything, you could say this team has over achieved." I agree with that 100%.

I'm hoping for Dallas in the first round for a little payback...

 

Just to be precise, we can expect less B2Bs and road games in the 2nd half of the season but also tougher opponents (according to Hollinger's SOS formula which does cause ratings to fluctuate after each set of games).

If we can get everybody back healthy on top of the fewer B2Bs and road games, we should improve in the standings despite playing against better quality teams (again, according to Hollinger's current SOS ratings).

 

What's funny is how any team we play goes onto a streak after we lose or beat them.

 

Well, I guess Milwaukee, Charlotte, Atlanta, the Blazers and the Spurs had their own version of the Philadephia game.

 

Also to remember, Philadelphia even last year ended up making the playoffs. They were bad the time Rockets played them. Not speaking up for Philly, but this year they were considered UNDERperformers enough to fire their coach last month.

Rockets still need to find a way to beat the teams they're favored against regardless if its on the road or back2back. If Rockets lose to OKC on the road 2nd night of a B2B, NO one's gonna care for their excuse

 

in plain terms,fans have the right to feel unhappy when they feel unhappy

 

I made this last year after another poster said the Philly game was the turning point of the season. I didn't think I would use it again.