Durvasa came up on this matter before, and you are right in mentioning again. But it seems to me that there is almost nowhere whatsoever to determine Coach's output based on player`s PER (Durvasa's approach) because by def. all win and loss statistics are strictly based on players' inputs. After all, coach doesnt get their Knickers on play the game. Their input is indirect. One sort of incomplete way is to compare win-loss column with point differential, by assuming any discrepancies between these two statistics are due to coach's ability then it seems very crude way of discerning coach's input, and probably award luck as much as anything else. So in the end, I personally believe, the best way to determine coach ability, especially for those who have been in the league long enough, is to coach's take win loss column, and compare that with the average salary of players.
Hiro - I enjoy a good basketball discussion, and this has been (and continues to be) one. I'd just point out a couple of things first - Van Gundy was coaching the Knicks in the playoffs (he took over late season) in 94/95. Further, I don't know how you judge they regressed under him - in the 4 prior years, they had losses in 2 semifinals, one conference finals, and one NBA finals, and the exact same uptake the next four years. I'd also point out a couple of qualitative things that I think make a HUGE difference here. For Pop, that would be Tim Duncan. It's just not fair to compare a pre and post Duncan draft era for the Spurs. Likewise, comparing Van Gundy to the prior 4 years I don't think are entirely fair - the earlier Knicks had an Ewing who was in his peak years. I think Popovich's control of personnel is a lot more clear than Van Gundy's. Again, I don't doubt Van Gundy has a lot of say in some decisions (like Oakley and Mark Jackson), but I think at the same time, the team looked out and saw the alternative to Mark Jackson being your run of the mill Tierre Brown (probably the high end). Given how most of the picks in the Van Gundy era were given up prior to his hiring or to eliminate salary cap problems preceding him (iirc, the two first rounders we didn't have were due to the original Francis trade, and the Glen Rice trade), I just don't see how those can be put on him. The complete, utter failure of Eddie Griffin was underway before Van Gundy got here. Of our other transactions, which are you unhappy with? Sura was good, Jackson was pretty good, the TMac trade was right, and the moves for Barry and Mike James. All the other stuff was pretty much salary cap maneuvers; the whole "Knickification" with Weatherspoon and Baker was strictly because they had shorter contracts than Norris and Taylor, etc. The failures to me have been Ward, but his contract size was small. The other obvious one is Swift - but he's the exact risk you were talking about taking. And again, I have a hard time putting his lack of development on JVG, considering his time with a guy considered a great developer in Hubie Brown. The whole Rafer deal is also another story, but as failure, I don't think can claim it is JVG going with one of "his guys". If anything, after the fiascos with Mo Taylor, Cato, and Moochie Norris, I think this organization has been much more responsible. We still feel the effects of it with Howard, whose large deal was forced on us in the TMac deal because of the magnitude of the Orlando trio's. I just don't see the bad development record. I'm waiting for examples of guys he got rid of too soon that blossomed elsewhere - for an example from a different team, Boston dumped Joe Johnson during his rookie season, and he's become a stud now.
Per Nick: "JVG plays structured ball... and until Phoenix wins a championship, its the model that ALL contending teams are following. The only difference is that JVG puts more emphasis on defense... which isn't a bad thing. The talent acquistion has been a problem... limited at first by the previous regime's (Rudy/CD) blunders for 5+ years, and now limited by the contracts of Yao + T-mac (which would be fine... if they both stayed healthy). I do like the fact that our offense puts an emphasis on getting high percentage shots (whether it be layups or wide open 3's). Sure, you have to have players who can hit those shots (Hayes with his poor layup skills, and the inconsistency of the wide open 3's)... but you gotta make the most of what you've got. And, I'm still taking this offense over the iso days of Francis/Mobely.... any day of the week." I am a Houston Rockets FAn. I support Van Gundy because he is our coach. He is an adequate head coach and outstanding defensive coach. I have stopped doggin the man since Jeff Balke called me the "antifan" for being critcal of Van Gundy. I do not like the harsh criticism of Rudy. Rudy is dead as a coach, buried and cold- end of story. Leave Rudy Tomjonovich alone. I hated the Isolation offense. Recall the zone defense was not allowed when Rudy started this. We were limited by our players and depleted talent and the "win now one more time with Hakeem" aquisitions we had gotten -Pippen, BArkley, Kevin Willis, etc. Recall Rudy got nothing for Pippen. We paid too much for Cato, TAylor, Moochie-signed to please Steve I think. I think Van Gundy can be our coach when we win a championship. I support this coach.
Not to mention Ewing was 34-38 during those years. Dude was ancient. I liked the post about JVG not adjusting to Avery's "small ball" in the playoffs. Avery did that because KVH got injured. So he had no choice. Additionally, he had 6 quality "small guys" (most of whome were young). So, yeah, it is JVG's fault that Wesley & Barry couldn't keep up with Stack, Daniels, Harris (when he played at the 2), Finley, & Howard and that James and Sura couldn't keep up with Terry and Harris. Remember that McGrady at this point was having to cover Dirk a lot.
No I have explicitly acknowledged there are other factors that determine the result other than the coach. But I chose Suns to make a comparison becasue both Rockets and Suns had a similar base to start with when Van Gundy took over. To be fair I shouldnt be too harsh on these comparison between Suns and Rockets, because Suns probably got lucky on many of their gambles, and if I am to do so, I shall be making same mistake I accused Nick of doing so earlier. But the point was, Suns were very innovative during these periods, and whilst in hindsight all GM should have traded Marbury for a set of expiring contracts, this was not so clear at the time. Nobody thought it will fan out this year, and if I remember correctly most "analyst" gave higher rankings than the Suns at the beginning of the season. As for the Spurs, they have been doing well despite the fact David Robinson retired. The drop-off in performance is almost unnoticable, and virtually no team experience such a mild transition. I believe this more than off-sets Duncan Tank factor. Ginobli, are Parker real find IMO, and demonstrate their management team's skills. Is our relative incompetency due to CD or JVG? We can only speculate. I'll track back on Van Gundy filling the roster with his ex-Knick garbage, Sam, Nike, Durvasa, Nick score big on this point, but he still hasnt been innovative enough for me.
Marbury couldn't co-exist with Amare and Marion, they went to management ask them to trade Marbury. Thanks to Isiah who took him from Suns and freed their cap space. It was not a gamble, it was good management by GMs, not coach. As for the Spurs, what did you mean by saying DRob's retirement more than enough to off-set TD Tank factor? They drafted TD in 97, and DRob retied in what? 2003? I don't see any relationship between Robinson's retirement and draft TD here. When Robinson retired, he was no longer the DRob of old, he was basiclly like Deke with a back problem, and Spurs replaced him with Rasho, who just had a career year in Minn. Of course that won't affect the team much. Do you think id Deke retires after this year and we replace him with someone like Steve Hunter, it would have a huge impact on this team? And you mentioned management skills. Yest, Spurs management was better than Rox management. They didn't trade 3 1st rounders to get Eddie Griffin. But that's not because of coach.
Thanks for the compliment. I too enjoyed the debate up to now. I will admit my knolwedge of basketball is inferior to you Nike, Durvasa, Sam or Nick, since I follow the game casually. That is why I lurk this site most of the time, because the intake in knowledge is great. Sam comes up with good scouting reports (Though he can be over-bearing at times, but thats ok for me ), Nike you are ultimate Salary Cap Guru, and Durvasa brought in real revelation in regards to how statistics should be used in the discussion (I loved his PER discussions). Now back to the argument, you guys have convinced me that (1) the Knick-Thing is overblown, (2) Van Gundy's managing record is better than I first thought, and (3) He has been rather unlucky to have Grunfield & CD as GM. But spending large part of time in Europe, where coaches put into huge effort in terms of scouting players, it comes as a somewhat cultural shock to believe personnel decision is sole responsibility of GM. This is probably why Amel and I have so much accordance in respect to JVG. For me the population for determining coach's "development talent" concerned should not be players he discarded or used, but the whole poole of players. This is where innovative ideas play their part, and I find JVG to be rather predictable, and conservative in this respect. Teams come up some real find through drafts, and roster fodder, for some reason or the other, this have not occured with JVG, even in his Knicks days as well. But I guess Barry, Jackson, Wesley, werent too bad in their respect, as you have mentioned. And in many ways, JVG hands were tied to bad decision making by the previous regime unlike Phoenix. Nonetheless, as a fan, I expected something better than what we got last 3 years. Anyway, its getting late here, and I guess I have to wait for the download later on.
No, JVG is not the right coach for this team. Unless we win a championship this year, he should be gone.
He has been adjusting well all year. JVG is a GOOD coach NOT GREAT. But he has GREAT talent on his team when everyone is healthy. I think another coach (Phil Jackson) could make us much better, but JVG has more than enough talent to lead us to a championship and he is def. not a BAD coach
I have a couple more things I forgot to say: 1) The reason why we melted down in Dallas was RIDICULOUS calls. When you get that many bad call it will eat away at you and takes alot more out of you (I know from playing sports I have had that happen to me before and it absolutely drains you because of your mental breakdown slowly). 2) Chaney was TERRIBLE coach. Don't even begin to compare Chaney to JVG. JVG >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Chaney (not enough > to show how much better he is). Rudy = JVG: Different styles but basically equal coachs (1 O minded, 1 D minded.) Remember Rudy had HAKEEM, that helps ALOT to win championships. JVG has a GOOD YAO and GOOD TMAC THIS YEAR. Watch out for Rockets (if Healthy) come playoff time.
JVG is an adequate- good coach. I'm am happy to be beating these scrub teams like the Nets and Sonics. Winning without Yao is a blessing - if we can survive til the big man gets back we will be need to be reckoned with. I support the Rockets. I am a fan of the team.
NOt only that but they rebuilt their entire core starting in 1995 immediately after JVG took over. Oakley, Mason, Harper were all gone by 1996. Starks hung around until the Sprewell trade a year, and then Ewing was an oft-injured shadow of his former self. The Knicks team that went to the Finals in 1999 had zero starters in common with the one that went to the finals in 1994. The NBA season is a lot longer (especially if you factor in playoffs) and lot more logistically difficult (due to longer travel times) than a European season - which IIRC maxes out at something like 60-something games even for the very top teams who play both domestic and Euroleague competitions. Van Gundy in particular has said that he does not follow college basketball or do much scouting insofar as he has absolutely no time to do so during the regular season.
Even without insider knowledge, it is pretty obvious that personnel decisions with the Rockets are mostly the coach's call. Just look at how different kinds of players we get with Rudy and with JVG. I think bringing in Morey is a move to fix the talent evaluation deficiency in years past. JVG inherited Yao, and had McGrady falling in his lap. Other than the superstars, (and Juwan Howard, whom we got from the McGrady trade) you can say the vast majority of the role players we have had in JVG tenure here have JVG's finger prints on. I'd say these are the only good acquisitions: (feel free to point out the ones I miss) Wesley Sura Barry James Mutombo Head Hayes Not surprisingly, more than half of these are over the hill dependable veterans--JVG type players And I am too lazy to list all the bad ones. Here are the ones just off the top of my head: Bogans Bowen Anderson Swift Mark Jackson Ward
I did the bad ones for you. You missed Shane Battier and Juwan Howard as good ones. Bonzi and maybe Kirk, but the jury is still out on them, due to injury. Torraye Braggs(sp?), Kirk Snyder, JLIII, Novak, Spanoulis, and Bonzi Wells. Padgett, Richie Frahm, Lonny Baxter, Stephen Graham, Rick Brunson. Jim Jackson, Clarence Weatherspoon, Tyronne Lue, Andre Barrett, Reece Gaines, Rod Strickland Eric Piatkowski, Mike Wilks, Rafer Alston(major bad one), Alton Ford, Charles Oakley, Adrian Griffin
Since Phil Jackson is the gold standard for hysterical JVG bashers, it's worth noting that dding over the hill dependable veterans is classic Phil Jackson m.o. Look at when he went to the lakers - does anybody here think that "developing" mark Madsen was a key to why they won titles? HEre's some of the guys who came to the Lakers in 2000 when he took over. Ron Harper AC Green Brian Shaw John Salley My god, talk about adding experienced veterans -Salley and Green were collecting Social Security at that point. The only young player who was added to the team was Devean George, who played about 7 minutes per game in about half the games, roughly the same as an ancient John Salley. The following year the principal additions were Horace Grant and Isiah Rider (with the immortal Mike Pemberthy getting some PT due to Fisher's injury, though substantially less than Grant & Rider). The following year they added Samaki Walker, Lindsey Hunter, & Mitch Richmond. Talk about a guy who loves veterans.....West and Jackson pretty much lived off them during the glory years. Trading for inexperienced inconsistent players tend to be the province of coaches on rebuilding teams that lose, and are soon gone.
Come on, you can do better than that Nick. Our rotation in the playoffs was Sura, Wesley, TMAC, Yao, Barry, James, Padget, Bowen. And most of them were playing at a very high level, w/ great chemistry. I honestly believe we had at least the same amount of talent if not more than Dallas that year. And I do not believe the better team won. JVG blew it that year. 2-0 w/ a stud TMAC and Yao....coming home.....and he got outcoached by a rookie. And if you remember correctly, Daniels was actually a big part of the Mavs comebacks in games 3-7. He was their going small scheme to take mutombo out of the game and played a key role actually. Dallas was talented, but more than that Rockets team w/ Mac playing like that?? I think not. Unless someone can justify a good reason of how we lost that year other than JVG getting schooled, I dont buy it that he is a championship coach.
Sure, they had great chemistry... but they had less talent. T-mac still went off in games 3-7... as did Yao. They had multiple guys step up throughout the series... Stackhouse, Terry, Howard, Nowitski. The Rockets could have won the World Championship that year... and I'd still call it overacheving. Whatever... stick with your opinion. The Rockets were the better team, and they choked... biggest choke/mismatch in NBA history... whatever.
i can't think of one young player that left the rockets under JVG to bloom elsewhere. head is a perfect example of a young guy that can flourish under JVG - no matter the reason he initially got PT. the fact is that when he got his opportunity to play, he has played well and JVG hasn't thrown him back to the bench for a "vet" jerry sloan has had a SLEW of guys leave his team to kick ass elsewhere. JVG ain't perfect, but he coaches winning principles and plays to our teams strengths. what more can we ask of our coach? maybe that he be some master motivator? like phil? what has phil won without kobe and shaq or jordan and pippen? i listen to some of you guys talk about what JVG should do or how our team should play and i think to myself - WTFRU talking about? we can't just roll out of bed one morning and play phoenix style ball. and even if we tried, we don't have the personel for it. we'd do a really sh!tty job of it. defense wins. inside-outside offense wins. i don't see why anyone can't respect what JVG has done. our roster is just now beginning to take shape since the mcgrady trade crippled our cap for so long. i only see us getting younger and better. VIVA JEFFE VAN GHUNDY
Wow it took me a buttload of time reading this thread but I feel I'm a more informed basketball fan for it. Thanks all for their well thought-out posts. And as for the championship coach question, my two cents says that JVG can take us to the promised land.
