Do we tank the last game(s) of the season or do go head on with the mavs

Just my .02, tanking doesn't mean that we're scared, it's merely a strategic play. Rest Ming Mac, take the easy route and face sonics at the first round.

Sure, if we do beat sonics Spurs is next, but you still go with the best possible immediate route. Who knows what would happen to say, Duncan's injury when they face Denver or Sac in a series of games? When there are too many unpredicatables I would rather go with a predictable, and that is to become the 6th seed against the weakest home court team. Heck they didn't even earn the 3rd spot it's the stupid new ranking system.

If you're still not convinced. Just picture Spoon on Dirk.

 

All right lets just sit McCray and Sampson and tank down the stretch, maybe we can just win the coin toss and draft Hakeem....

Wait, that was then and this is now. No way you tank when you are trying to build momentum for the playoffs. Tank, if ever, when you are building momentum (or lack thereof) for a high draft pick (altough that strategy does not really work with the lottery).

If we finish fifth, which is a heck of an accomplishment -- most of this board would have been happy with that after starting 6-11, if not at the begining of the season -- bring on the Mavs!

 

Position Player Player Edge
PG Sura Terry Mavs
SG Wesley Finley Mavs
SF TMac Howard Rockets
PF Spoon Nowitzki Mavs
C Yao Damp Rockets
Bench Deke Bradley Rockets
Bench James Harris Rockets
Bench Barry Stackhouse Mavs
Bench Padgett Van Horn Even
Bench Bowen Daniels Even
Coach Van Gundy Johnson Rockets


We will beat the Mavs if we play up to our potential. Dirk will get his and at the end of the game, Van Gundy will cross up the rookie Avery and throw a special D on Dirk to throw Dallas off. Remember him putting TMac on Dirk at the end of the game.

 

No tanking. We should try our best to beat LAC. One more win means we are ensured of a 5th or 6th seed, hence avoiding a first-round match-up against the spurs. In the game vs. seattle, we should give Vin Baker and company an oppotunity to tune up for the playoff. After all, how can those guys come off bench strong if they've played so little in a real game? This simply makes sense. This might just be JVG's plan.

 

except that Vin is on the IL...adn cant come back off for 5 games

 

I think in any 7 game series matchup we can beat anyone 4 out of 7. Anyone.

 

What you're saying has nothing to do with having "momentum" going into the postseason. You've simply shown that championship-caliber teams can win a lot of games in the 2nd half. Which seems to me like a pretty "duh" thing. I'm just talking about the few games right before the playoffs, since that's really what people actually mean by "momentum going into the playoffs". In fact, for the purpose of this thread, we're talking only about the last 2 games of the regular season. The Rockets are not going to more likely to beat Dallas simply because they go in on a 7 game winning streak rather than winning just 5 or 6 of the last 7.

 

In our only legit win against Dallas, Juwan went 14-19 from the field for a season high 29points. Neither Josh Howard nor Marquis Daniels played in that game. We needed 60% FG shooting and 20 point games from several players in order to win that game.

In our other win, neither Nitwitzki or Finley played and Juwan had 11 with 10 boards.

In none of the 4 games was Yao able to dominate like he has done against Seattle, Phoenix, Sac, and even the Spurs (albeit only a couple times). The Mavs have consistently forced him into low-percentage fadeaway jumpers and turnovers.

I say tank.

 

Seattle is the 3-seed because of the new divisional alignment. If we win out, we'll get the 5-spot and won't be playing them.

As for all the talk about "tanking," we have to win against the Clippers just to get to the 50-win milestone, and to avoid dropping down to the 7-seed and play San Antonio.

Our last game of the season against Seattle, I'm sure JVG will let the starters rest. At that point, we're locked in at either 5 or 6. I don't really think JVG cares much about whether we play Dallas or Seattle in the playoffs.

 

You think so anyway...that isnt a fact by any stretch of the imagination

This team depends on momentum...they need the confidence that comes with ridiong a streak of good games to inspire them to continue playing the right way.


honestly...its all a moot point...you know VG by now...you know his style and his philosophy...he aint tanking..you can depend on that and take it to the frreaking bank.

It aint happening.

Like NIKE said...If the 2 game sare total blowouts and the bench is playing well...I fully expect him to sit Tmac and Yao to give them some rest....but he will nto throw the games....that is a fact.

 

It's Official... NO Tank Job

Jeff Van Gundy won't do it.

The option is there, or at least it could be. Let Tracy McGrady keep the weight off his tendinitis-sore knees and allow Yao Ming to do the same for his often-tender left ankle. Rest a few players. Lose.

Van Gundy could manipulate the playoff seedings just enough to choose the Rockets' first-round playoff opponent, either the SuperSonics or the Mavericks.

He won't do it.

The Mavericks would seem a more difficult matchup for a variety of reasons, most of all because they have a better record than the SuperSonics. Van Gundy is fond of saying, "You are what your record says you are," and that in itself would seem enough for him to consider Dallas a better team and Seattle a better first-round opponent. But if he could control entirely whom the Rockets will face in the first round, Van Gundy said he would not.

"I've always thought this," he said of his opposition to manipulating playoff matchups. "When I was with the Knicks one year (1997), Charlotte ... beat us like a drum 3-1, beat us the last three games. The game we beat them, they didn't have a couple of their guys.

"I know they dropped games at the end of the season so they could align themselves with us. And we swept them 3-0. They totally dominated us in the regular season, and we won three close games in the postseason. Since then, I've been convinced you're better off not wishing, because you may just get what you wish for. We're going to try to win every game. We're going to try to get the highest seed, and the biggest thing for us is to try to improve to be in position to win a first-round series, no matter who we play.

"Then whoever we play is going to be a decided favorite, and who cares? We'll line up and play."

Besides, there is always the danger of losing twice and finishing seventh, meaning a likely first-round matchup with the Spurs.

Assorted scenarios
After Saturday's blowout win over the Nuggets — a team that was enjoying a two-month run through most of the NBA — the Rockets are tied with the Kings for fifth in the Western Conference and hold the tiebreaker against Sacramento (conference record) and the Nuggets (head-to-head record). A fifth-place finish would set up a first-round matchup with the Mavericks. A fall to sixth would pit the Rockets against Seattle.

If the Rockets lose one of their remaining two games against the Clippers tonight or Sonics on Wednesday, they can drop to sixth only if the Kings win their remaining two games.

If the Rockets lose both remaining games, they can be sixth if the Kings win two games and the Nuggets win one, or if the Nuggets win twice while the Kings lose twice.

If the Rockets were to lose to the Clippers and Sonics, they could fall all the way to seventh if the Nuggets win twice and the Kings win once.

The Sonics, who have struggled at the end of the season while Dallas was finishing fast, are led offensively by guard Ray Allen, who would match up with the Rockets' best perimeter defender, David Wesley.

The Mavericks are led by forward Dirk Nowitzki, whom the Rockets would have to defend with Clarence Weatherspoon, Scott Padgett or Ryan Bowen.

But the Rockets insist they are no more seeking a matchup with the Sonics than they are trying to avoid one with the Spurs, contending the only motivation is hitting the playoffs at full speed regardless of opponent. As soon as the Rockets beat the Suns on April 9 to clinch a playoff spot, Van Gundy made it the team's goal to move up to fifth, inspiring or even ordering a determination to ignore postseason matchups.

"We knew if we won out, fifth would be where we'd be," Padgett said. "We're focusing on winning more than being No. 5. We were concentrating on getting better. If we keep getting better, we're not concerned with No. 5 or No. 6.

Confidence key
"I think going into the playoffs, a big thing is going in with confidence and knowing you are playing your best," Padgett added. "If we do what we're capable of doing, if we play like we played for three quarters last night (against the Nuggets), we can play with anybody."

After a season in which the Rockets have shown themselves capable of beating anybody (they have victories over five first-place teams) or losing to anybody (they have lost to every last-place club, plus Charlotte), Van Gundy looked at the playoff possibilities and made his choice. The Rockets will play to win.

 

Like I said.....^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Feels good to be right.

 

Hmmm, Rashard is back... the Sonics is also a pretty good team.

 

This isn't really what I "think". I remember reading an article I believe last year which did a detailed analysis of this myth. And dispelled it. I don't remember where I read it now, so I can't show a link, unfortunately. But I figured I'd do some rudimentary analysis of this, as it stands right now.

Just going back two years, and looking at 1st round matchups involving the 3rd(sometimes #2 seed because of the playoff seedings) and 4th best teams and their respective opponents. I take the top 2 teams out of the mix because it's really pointless. After all, teams with 55+ wins are much more likely to be winning going into the playoffs than teams barely over the .500 mark.

Here's the result.

2003-2004

SA(2-0 in last 2 games) def Memphis(0-2)
Sacramento(0-2) def Dallas(2-0)
Maimi(2-0) def NO(1-1)
NJ(0-2) def NY(1-1)

2002-2003

Boston(1-1) def Indiana(2-0)
Philly(1-1) def NO(2-0)
Sacramento(2-0) def Utah(0-2)
LA(2-0) def Min(2-0)

The winning teams of the 1st round have a combined record of 10-6 for their last two regular season games. The losing teams have exactly the same combined 10-6 record. The team that won more of its last two games are 3-4 in the 1st round. Which is consistent with my point. I'm not going back any further because I don't have that much time. I'm only doing even this much because I'm having trouble sleeping tonight.

If you have results that shows otherwise, feel free to prove me wrong.

 

It's all a clever ploy to get Sac and Den feeling free to win this week without fear that they could possibly make it to #5. Then we smack 'em down with just to right tankjob to steal the 6th spot

 

Blowout loss aside, Denver has been very, very, very hot. I can see them winning both of their games. Even Phoenix. Imagine, for a second, that Denver goes 2-0. Not a stretch. I wouldn't bet money on it, mind you, but it's not some crazy, unlikely scenario.

If that happens . . .

. . . we had better win at least one more game. Otherwise we'll play the Spurs. And if that happens, all of this chest-thumping will turn real sour real fast.

This Clippers game scares the bejeezus out of me. I love what Van Gundy is saying about winning each game, but still, I'm worried that we might rest on our laurels. If we fizzle against the Clippers, and if the Nuggets win, then the Sonics game will be a MUST WIN in order to avoid the Spurs.

For me, this Clippers game is one of the most important games of the season, as it would guarantee that we avoid the Spurs in Round 1.

(Back to topic: ...which is why I find the idea of tanking so ridiculous)

 

For me, it's not as much an attempt to manipulate playoff seedings as it is to rest our best players no matter who we play.

Other teams are doing the same thing.

We have a veteran ball club - one of the oldest in the league. And even though McGrady is only 25, he's been in the league 7 years and has tendinitis. Our best young player, Yao, has been banged around and has competed non-stop 12 months of the year.

Resting our players and having them fresh is important especially if we expect to go far.

 

I'd rather see the Rockets hit 50 wins than tank.

 

JVG will do what is necessary even it includes a well planned tank job.

 

Some great posts in this thread, what a difference a year makes. Last year I thought a first round series victory wasn't that important: getting Yao and Steve playoff experience was.

This year the only thing that may be valuable about a first round series victory would get that monkey off T-Mac's back, but unless Yao explodes it won't tell us much about our immediate future.

This team is old and well, is similar to '95 after the Drexler trade, I say to heck with it and let's run the table. Having said that, San Antonio and Dallas are the only teams I don't want in the first round.

But it doesn't matter, when our backcourt shoots their average and T-Mac has his normal game we almost always win. I like our chances in a 7 game series. It's this 5 game one that could be the problem.