Don't forget that in comparison to last year, they are also adding Derrek Lee, a 1.000 OPS type hitter with some speed.
I think Lee is their best player... and they're going to be just fine on offense if he's at the MVP level he was at in 05... but I still don't think they're good enough to simply outslug teams every night.
Too many inconsistent players to do that. Teams will be able to pitch around Lee and Berkman....unless Ensberg and Scott are going good, this team needs good pitching to compete every night. Right now with Ausmus, Everett and the pitcher, we have 33% of the batter as pretty much guaranteed outs. DD
Lee has been a mid .800 OPS type hitter for most of his entire career, including his playing time last season in Chicago and his 2004 season with the Cubs. While it's possible he could go back to 2005 form, given his career numbers, I think it's a stretch to think of him as a 1.000 OPS type hitter. 2005 looks like the outlier.
Uhh... I was talking about Derek Lee. The Astros offense will be contingent on either Ensberg or Scott (or both) having a better than average year... I don't think that's too much to ask. Berkman will get his.
My bad..... I still think the Astros offense will be inconsistent, and for a team that has always relied on it's pitching, I am worried. DD
What's with the Ranger bashing? The AL is much stronger than the NL right now. If the Rangers were in the NL central, they may have been able to keep the WS champs out of the playoffs.
Have either of those players even had an average year? It seems they only have great or crappy seasons.
Always relied? You mean since 2004? You always need good pitching to win, and teams can win alone with great pitching and terrible offenses, but your argument implies that the offense will be just as bad as it was in 05 and 06, and statistics say that won't be the case. Even when they had Kent, Beltran, or the old Killer B's... it's always been inconsistent. If anything during the last two years of apparent "offensive ineptitude" should teach you, its that even the most mediocre of offenses will be there in stretches... but you still need stars to carry you through the long haul. The offense won't be at a superstar level... but it won't be anemic anymore either... and that's a huge improvement. Lee will get his, Berkman will get his... both will be near all-star levels. Its up to Scott or Ensberg (or both) to have a 25+HR, decent average, decent OPS season to make the offense highly functional.
In addition to the power upgrade with Carlos Lee, I think you'll be surprised how much the consistency improves with Burke instead of Taveras. While Taveras' OBP certainly wasn't as low as Everett's, it's still far too low for the top of the order, and he gave very little potential for extra-base hits or driving in runs when the opportunities arose. Having only two positions as clear holes instead of 3 (sometimes 4 depending on which Biggio shows up) will make a difference.
Hell, they're guaranteed to win, if you listen to some. I like their offense a bit more than the Stros'. I like the Stros' pitching depth, on the big club & waiting in the wings for callup (Gutierrez, Albers, Estrada, Patton) a bit more than theirs. I like the Stros bully more than theirs. But that's all on paper. We'll see if somebody steps up...every year it's supposed to be the Cubs. This year everybody's talking about the Brewers too.
I don't think you need this BBS to bash the Rangers... they haven't been relavent since they signed A-rod... and even then, that continued a trend of bone-headed signings that have that franchise stuck in mud. They play in the AL... that's not going to change... they need to compete some time this millenium.
It's their personality. Bring in great hitters...ignore pitching...get beat. Pitching is the key to long-term success in baseball. Their model doesn't work.
and it mitigates the punch of being a 40/40 guy. 1/4 of his AB's come with absolutely no one on base. the other 3/4 come with the pitcher batting before him. you don't waste that sort of potential run production.
And how great were the teams' offenses that he put up these amazing numbers for? Just as MM said... you pay guys boat-loads to hit that well with people on base, not to start off games. Soriano is a GREAT player... and a unique talent... hopefully making the $$$ won't get to his head. But the Cubs can get a 50/50 season out of him batting leadoff, and still won't do anything offensively if Derek Lee or Ramirez falters. And judging by their team makeup, they're going to have to outslug teams to remain in the hunt.
On the surface, that's true. But between 2004 and 2005, he changed hitting styles - there was a lot of discussion about that while he was an MVP candidate before the Cubs really faded. He began 2006 in the same mode - with a 1.000+ OPS through all of April. Then he broke his wrist in early May, came back too early, struggled, went back on the DL, tried to come back again, wasn't healthy, and then the season ended. He didn't have any strength and couldn' bat properly. So, for what it's worth, the entire sub-par section of 2006 was injured (I only know all this because I had him on my fantasy team). He's apparently back to 100% now. If true, I'd expect him to be far closer to the 2005 Lee than the 2004 and earlier version.
