The Astros need someone to step up or depend on the NL, and specifically the central, sucking again. The offense looks better on paper this year, but the offense on the field will need to carry this team late in the rotation.
I expect JJ's ERA will be somewhere between 3.5 and 5. I expect WW's ERA to be closer to 4.8 than 3.6. Both's ERA should be below the league average and both should eat innings.
If we are still juggling our 4th and 5th spots come June, we are gonna be in trouble...if we can sort one of them out and get a guy who can pitch like a 3/4 in that spot....we can compete in this division. I think we need Roger to come back or for a guy like Nieve/ALbers/Wandy to exceed all expectations to win the division.
Especially a 40 year old such as Woody who has been around the block. I don't mind when a season vet says stuff like this but when guys like Wandy and Garner talk about Wandy's performances they don't think anything of it. I hate when they say "my/his only mistake was"...your only mistake was that you allowed 5 runs in 3 innings Wandy you piece of %^$#. Sorry, a little carried away but man that annoys me.
So who do you guys think will step up? I think and hope Nieve will be the guy to step up and take charge of the 5th spot I guess. He seems like he has the most confidence besides Sampson who I think will be the long reliever and come in when Wandy sucks(which will happen a lot).
Personally I think Jennings is an upgrade from last year's Pettitte who was NOT good. We will get more out of Woody than we got out of Backe last year, and Wandy is still Wandy. So I don't think we are that much worse off than last year. The problem is that last year's staff well underachieved, and that is the quality we seem to be expecting this year. In other news, I believe the Astros offense will be very much improved over last year with Lee in the lineup and I just cannot see us being stuck with an underperforming Ensberg and Lane in the lineup for near as long as we did last year. Changes will be made sooner this year (I hope) if those guys don't perform.
None of these things go together. Close to 4.8 and 5 are not below league average. And Woody Williams is anything but an inning eater. He's pitched 160 innings or less each of the past two years, and averages about 6 innings per start in the portion of the season he's healthy.
Tough call....Sampson showed some flashes last year in live games n the bigs....and Nieve is starting to look like he is getting there. Wandy, even though he has been there, scares me....he seems to get the wins but he seems to draw the game where we explode for 8 runs (no stats to back that up...just seemed that way) and he would get pulled just before he imploded. Albers doesnt strike me as the guy for whatever reason. I think we are going to see Wandy in the 4 spot and Nieve in the 5 to start imo. I actually think we should give Nieve the 4 spot and only use Wandy as the 5 when there isnt an off day
Guys, what's the status of Backe? Is he ever going to return? I haven't heard anything about him in a long time.
He's throwing all his pitches off the mound. Not reasonable for him to return before September, if at all this year. Usually takes about 12-18 months, which puts him in Sept 07 to ST of 08. They have said that his recovery is going faster than planned. Him pushing it too hard too fast is a big worry, since his stubbornness is what got him in this situation to begin with.
Close to 3.5 and significantly well below league average. What's your point again? Wandy dreams of 6 innings per start. 6 innings per start average is eating innings in my book. Good days will be 7 innings and bad days will be 5 innings. Last Oswalt averaged 6.9. Jennings average 6.6. Williams averaged 6.0 (on 24 starts). If Nieve can average 6.0, everybody will be screaming he has had a breakout season.
My point is that "closer to 4.8 than 3.5" and "both ERA should be below league average" are completely opposite ideas. And you expect Jennings to be somewhere between one of the best 10 pitchers in the NL and well worse than league average, and are saying you know what to expect of him? Fair enough. I think of an inning eater as someone who gets more than the average, middle-of-the-road starter and as someone that can battle through bad outings and go deep into a game when you need to conserve your bullpen or something like that. That's not Woody Williams. To his credit, though, he's fairly consistent as opposed to having those 2 inning games and then 9 inning games to balance them out. He basically always goes about 6 innings. And Nieve wouldn't be considered an inning eater either. Oswalt certainly is. I don't know enough about Jennings' makeup to really know if he is at this point. Wandy and company are not.
Wandy averaged just a tick over 5.5 innings per start last year. 11 innings additional innings amongst his 24 starts would put him at an even 6. Which is just about exactly what Woody did: 11 1/3 more innings in the same number of starts. Just sayin'.
It seems like a lot of the media is expecting Nieve to have a breakout season. I certainly hope so. I've always thought that if he could keep his pitches consistently down, he'd be a stud.
I remember doing that all the time! it was great.. loved going to batting practice and watch Glenn Davis pop em out. I wonder what his homerun totals would be if he played in MM.
Agree with all of this, I don't see the pitchers getting it done this year, other than Roy, Wheeler and Lidge.
maybe you should care about his horrible home/road splits for 2005 and 2006 outside of the awesome pitchers park in san diego. or maybe care about the declining IP and starts after the career high of 220 and 34 respectively in 2003. then couple that with his very poor spring and you have some big time red flags. we are going to be hurting for starters. Roy O and JJ are great to have as the top 2, but outside of that we are running out very weak starters.
