Do guys like Adam Dunn/Ryan Howard belong in baseball?

Let the arguments commence.

Assuming they were both the same age (on the young side), based on offensive contributions only, would you choose Adam Dunn (statistically very close to the guy you would take), over Ryan Braun (statistically very close to the guy you wouldn't take in your example)?

 

I'd take Braun because he has much more pop than Dunn - Braun's career SLG is .610 in almost 1,000 AB. If the players in Beck's example have similar SLG, I'd take the guy with the higher OBP every time over the guy with the higher AVG.

 

If 2 players have the same OBP, I would prefer the guy with the higher BA.
I'm just saying, in general, I prefer guys who make less outs.

Ryan Bruan is a career .311/.355/.586 guy so I would take him over a .250/.380/.520 guy. A little less OBP for a lot more SLG.

Thats my point. I don't discount BA totally, but I think OBP is a better metric.

 

Baseball is one of those games where you have to look at the overall stats. For example, you want a high OBP guy batting 1st or second, but you want to sacrifice OBP for average and slugging with your 4 and 5 guys.

There are times I'd much rather see Berkman or Lee swing away and risk an out rather than taking the walk.

With a runner on second and two outs do you want a guy hitting .290 with an OBP of .330 or a guy hitting .250 with an OBP of .380?

In other words, there are very few absolutes in baseball.

 

The guy with the .250 BA and .380 OBP because he's less likely to make the third out.

 

What if the player behind him sucks? The chances of that lead runner scoring varies depending on what the next player is capable of. If he's Carlos Lee, that's very different than if he's Brad Ausmus.

 

Obviously we're assuming the player behind the .250/.380 hitter is of the same quality as the player behind the .290/.330 hitter. How else can you evaluate either player independently?

 

I remember when Adam Dunn and Ryan Howard were known as Dave Kingman and Rob Deer.

 

Instead of Adam Dunn and Ryan Howard, I think you meant Greg Vaughn and Jay Buhner.

 

For the life of me, I can't understand the Dave Kingman and Rob Deer comparisons, which plenty of other people have made too. Those two guys had respective career OBPs of .302 and .324 (terrible). Dunn and Howard each have .380 career OBPs (very good).

It's like comparing Michael Bourn to Kenny Lofton.

 

Dunn and Howard have career SLG over 500, Deer and Kingman below 500.

Dunn has scored 100 runs twice in his career, Howard already once in 2 full seasons of play, plus a chance this year. Deer and Kingman = never.

Dunn is very similar to Harmon Killibrew actually.

 

Oh absolutely - but if the guy behind them in either case really sucks, you want the guy who'll swing away and has a higher BA but maybe lower OBP. On the other hand, if you have a great hitter behind this hitter, you want the guy with the higher OBP.

Basically, the guy you want depends, to some extent, on the lineup around him.

 

I just want a whole lineup of Morgan Ensbergs. That's it. Nothing but Ensbergs as far as the eye can see. His plate discipline is unmatched.

 

I like seeing batting average, OBP, and Slugging listed together (entire stat line if I can get it). Too many people are this metric is better than that metric when it is better to understand what each metric tells you about a player than to just use one.

 

so disciplined, even 3-2 qualifies as a "no swing" mode for him!

 

I'd rather have a guy like Nick Markakis or Grady Sizemore.. solid all-around production.

 

the very definition of discipline. his OBP was fantastic...but it oversold big time his value to that team batting where he was in the lineup.

 

Ryan Howard is having an off year on avg. and shouldn't be in this discussion. His career BA is .280 or something like that. He hit .313 two years ago.

 

Eh, honestly that was a half-season phenomenon -- crazy things happen when the sample is that small. For most of Ensberg's career, his BA and OBP were around 8 points apart. (In 2003, .291 hitter, .377 OBP. In 2004, .275 hitter, .330 OBP. In 2005, .283 hitter, .388 OBP.) Then, in 2006, it got crazy -- .235 BA, .396 OBP. But in 2007, he hit for practically the exact same average -- .232, but his OBP went down to .323.

What happened? Anyone who watched Ensberg last season knows it was more of the same (or change, depending on how you look at it ), in terms of his approach and discipline at the plate. My suspicion is that in 2006, he lived off his 2005 reputation as a hitter and pitchers were timid, whereas in 2007, pitchers adjusted to him and challenged him more.

Anyway, to get to my point, it sometimes feels like folks devalue OBP based on the example of watching Ensberg, and I don't think that's fair, because you're talking about a three-month fluke there that was completely out of touch (and still is) with the rest of his career. It's completely different from a guy like Dunn, who has had a comparable low average but consistently posts upper .300s OBPs for years and years.

(And yeah, I know you weren't talking about this, Max -- I know you were talking about lineup construction. So don't think I'm aiming this at you -- I just took the Ensberg reference as a launching point for discussion. )