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Disgruntled Star Watch

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by RocketSiv, May 9, 2000.

  1. RocketSiv

    RocketSiv Member

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    It seems they are sliwly piling up. Right now there are three to four, only 3 of which could be possibilites for us.

    1)Glenn Robinson-We all know he is gone for the right package.

    2)Antoine Walker-He is disgruntled every year, he'll be gone one of these times.

    3)Gary Payton-He seems to be unhappy but won't be traded to us unless he was moved on in a three way, he'll never play for us.

    4)Shareef Abdur-Rahim-I was just reading an article on NBAtalk.com(sorry no link) and it appears he is uncertain about his future and may ask for a trade. By all means do it Shareef, get out of Vancouver as fast as you can, and get down here.

    To me Shareef is the prize and if you'll remember Rudy wanted him really, really bad before he signed his extension in Vancouver.
    If he asks for or already has asked for a trade then I am sure Houston was one of the first teams on the phone and hopefully the last team on the phone.

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  2. MManal

    MManal Member

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    On this list, the player I would really want the Rockets to go after is Rahim. The question I have though, is can this deal work on the cap with Cato in it? Isnt he a BYC player? If Cato cant work here on the cap, b/c of BYC restrictions, the only halfway plausible offer I can think of is KT, Drew, Williams, Rogers and the 9th pick with the 4.5 mil exception making up the difference. Not sure if the Grizz bite on that unless they are really desparate.

    The way to really get the Grizz's attention would be for the Rockets to be willing to take on Reeves contract in the trade but that would involve dealing Hakeem. Ofcourse, this would be a major PR nightmare.



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  3. heypartner

    heypartner Contributing Member

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    woo hoo,

    Another opportunity to explain:

    What Commoditization of the TRADE EXCEPTION means and how powerful it is!

    3-way Popeye Swap with Vanc and Orlando
    Vanc get #3, #4 and Trade Exception (and starch)
    Hous gets Shareef
    Orlando gets #9 (and 2 obligations)

    Who thinks that's silly...It better not be the same people who thought Orlando would pull that Popeye trade to begin with...or anyone who thinks the trade exception is very useful to us...cause that trade above puts Vanc in the drivers seat of NBA trades, and could probably land them something outstanding from Popeye's Portland break-up!

    #3, #4 and $4.4m is a great way to rebuild after losing Shareef!!!

    You see...the Trade Exception is the most powerful Trade Bait we have.


    [This message has been edited by heypartner (edited May 09, 2000).]
     
  4. Dickerson

    Dickerson Member

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    maybe we should throw in stevie to sweeten the deal *BIGSMILE*

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  5. Rocketman95

    Rocketman95 Hangout Boy

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    I'd take any of those if the deal was just right. I'm not sure who I want to give up just yet, it all depends on who we get in the draft.

    The one player, out of the whole NBA, that I really want on the Rockets is Abdur-Rahim. I'd give up almost anything (anyone but Anderson and Francis) to get him.

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  6. NIKEstrad

    NIKEstrad Contributing Member
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    Just for the record, Rahim's salary next year will be: 10,125,000 (10 mill, 125 thousand)

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  7. DaFranchise

    DaFranchise Member

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    What about Mobley? Making that trade will all but push him out the door. I'd rather have a more complete lineup with Mobley(who could turn out better than Rahim if he is serious about working his ass off until he's an all-star), Anderson, Francis, the #9, and Cato or whoever we trade him for.

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  8. aelliott

    aelliott Contributing Member

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    3-way Popeye Swap with Vanc and Orlando Vanc get #3, #4 and Trade Exception (and starch)Hous gets Shareef Orlando gets #9 (and 2 obligations)

    Maybe I'm missing something here, but this doesn't seem to add up. Houston takes on $10M in salary and gives up none. How does a $4.4M trade exception offset that kind of money?

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  9. SmeggySmeg

    SmeggySmeg Contributing Member

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    i think by starch he means players, who don't perform and are on ridicously large contracts.

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  10. MManal

    MManal Member

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    aelliott, due to BYC rules, how much would the Grizz be able to get in a trade in terms of salary for Rahim? Wouldnt the Rockets have to trade them a certain percentage of 10 mil but yet still fit 10 mil under their own cap? Is the trade exception big enough to cover this difference? Also, last yr, Rahim made 9 mil, this next season he is going to make 10.125 mil as Nike pointed out. If he is traded after July 1, the 10.125 mil counts right? Also, would the Grizz be able to take on Cato as a BYC as they dont have enough cap room or a trade exception to circumvent that? Thus, would the Rockets be limited to offering players like Drew, Thomas, Rogers, Williams, the 9th pick etc?

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  11. NIKEstrad

    NIKEstrad Contributing Member
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    OK, I just did a little number crunching. But, first I have a question for capologists: Which salary counts for Abdur-Rahim to be available via trade? Last year's (99-00) or next year's?

    Anyway, we'd have to meet 8,606,250 (85% of Rahim's salary for next year) to have the ability to take on Rahim's salary for it work for us. For them, we can only give them a total of $5,787,375 straight up for Rahim(15% over $5,062,500, half of Rahim's salary for next year, he is in his first year of BYC, right?) The trade exception is extremely handy, here is my proposed deal (salaries for next year; 12.5% multiplied by last year's salary):

    Bryce Drew: $1,243,755
    Kenny Thomas: 926,370
    Walt Williams: 4,218,750
    #9 Pick: 0
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    $6,388,875


    for
    Shareef Abdur-Rahim: $5,062,500
    Othella Harrington: 2,278,125
    -------------------------------
    $7,340,625

    Vancouver could do the trade, because they are receiving less.

    Now, for the Rockets hand to work, we'd have to be able to intake all of Shareef's salary, and Othella's, which comes out to: $12,402,825, or come within 15%
    which is $10,542,401 and 25 cents ( [​IMG]) Now, we add 4,153,526.25 of our trade exception, and the deal is signed, sealed, and delivered.

    That deal is about right. Assuming he's 1st year BYC, and only can get 50% of his contract for him, it works. it'd also work if they could get 75%, but it'd change some of the numbers....actually, it wouldn't, we'd just be able to give them a little bit more (Carlos Rogers?). Did a make any mistakes in my thinking capologists?

    Now, onto other matters, of saying this would hurt Mobley. How so? Having an inside-out threat like Rahim, who grabs 10 boards and is 6'9''...the Rockets could easily go with the 3 guards, and put him at the PF, a la Walt Williams, except he'd be more effective, cause the defense couldn't just leave the middle empty cause of his post up threat, and he'd be great for boards.

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    [This message has been edited by NIKEstrad (edited May 09, 2000).]
     
  12. MManal

    MManal Member

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    Interesting scenario Nike.... Let's say Vancouver says that is on the right track but its not enough. Suppose they want Kelvin Cato thrown into the package, which I think would atleast be somewhat likely. Could the Rockets throw in Cato, counting half his salary under BYC rules and to match the numbers, the Grizz throw in some cap balast like Doug West (3.25 mil) or Brent Price (2.25 mil) to make the deal work on the cap? Also I thought first round picks counted a pre-slotted amount as soon as the rookie is drafted?

    So essentially, would this deal work cap wise... Rahim, Harrington, West or Price for Cato, Thomas, Williams, Drew, 9th pick.

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  13. outlaw

    outlaw Member

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    what leverage does Shareef have to demand a trade? He's locked up until 2004.
     
  14. NIKEstrad

    NIKEstrad Contributing Member
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    I don't think it would.....just I'm not sure on trading of BYC for BYC, it'd be kinda hard....Cato would count X for us, then 2X for them...I'll try it out right now.

    West is 3,706,875
    Price is 3,312,000

    which adds 7,018,875 to Houston's intake

    How much is Cato? now we'd have to take on 12,402,825 and
    7,018,875
    ----------
    19,421,700

    and we only have $6,388,875+1/2 of Cato+4.5 of exception....not gonna work. Maybe if didn't take on West and Price, but in this case, it wouldn't. Cato would only add half his value to what we're trading away. Vancouver is already taking on less in my above scenario. We could probably take on Price and give them Rogers though, but now we're starting to fleece our whole bench, and our starting forwards for 2 new starting forwards, and a more expensive Bryce Drew.


    Now, for a little stuff on Abdur-Rahim, check this: http://www.vancouverprovince.com/grizzlies/stories/000509/4068744.html

    "I think he understood," said Hollins. "You just can't do it by yourself. You have to be like a super-duper superstar in order to carry a team night in and night out.

    Now, who does Houston have to carry a load of the weight with him? Francis, don't forget Mobley, plus the Dream, and a happy Othella (in my scenario), and Shandon on some nights.

    "I can't say what type of a coach it's going to have to be but I can tell you what type of coach it can't be," continued Goodwin. "It can't be a coach that doesn't know how to relate to ball players. It can't be a coach that isn't experienced enough to motivate a young team. I just know that those are going to be some major issues because they've got a young team."

    I think Rudy T would know how to relate, and considering the late season performance, he sure can motivate.



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  15. SmeggySmeg

    SmeggySmeg Contributing Member

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    Only one way Vancouver trades Shareef and that is if Big useless Country Reeves is also in the package giving them cap space to start rebuilding again (or continue the rebuilding process). No way rocks take on that waste of space and cap room, so maybe start postulating on getting a 3rd team in on this trade, who needs a slow white injury prone fatty boombaladda centre???

    SmegPerson

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  16. heypartner

    heypartner Contributing Member

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    aelliott, I'm trying to illustrate how commoditization of the trade exception not only makes things work for the trade, it ATTRACTS teams to the trade, because they get the exception in return. Lately we've been using the term "starch" to define making up the difference in salaries with Pippen-trade type filler.

    For everyone in the thread, anyone who believes we have strong trade positioning with the trade exception, should see that Vanc ends up with GREAT trade positioning. LEARN TO ACCEPT THAT THE CBA IS ABOUT SLOWING DOWN FREE AGENCY.

    I guess no one sees how the trade exception has value by attracting people to us. SmeggySmeg said the only way to make this work is Vanc ends up with major cap space. But that is the whole problem. The CBA makes it very hard to chop off major capspace, because your trading partner has to eat it up. All you can really do to chop capspace is not resign your big guns and/or wait for them to retire. Smeggy, sorry, but the trade with Big Country you suggest makes ZERO capspace for free agents...it makes a TRADE EXCEPTION, which counts towards the cap until expired.

    So, aside from renouncing FAs and waiting for them to retire, there is really only one other major thing you can do to win bargaining positioning (as I see it), and that is trade with a team that has a trade exception. While you don't gain cap space, you do get to work major trades that no one else can. And it keeps transfering.

    DID I SAY THE NEW CBA MAKE FREE AGENCY DIFFICULT!!

    Free agency is less and less the answer.

    Did I say the trade exception is new to this CBA.

    The trade exception is now "free agency" pretty much.

    Did I say the Trade Exception is a commodity...it is warm...it is good.

    [This message has been edited by heypartner (edited May 09, 2000).]
     
  17. thacabbage

    thacabbage Contributing Member

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    You're Stu Jackson (sorry Azim). You just traded your team's best player to Houston last summer for Othella Harrington and Michael Dickerson. You got lucky that time...Othella and Mike are good. This summer you trade the best small forward in the Western Conference, who also happens to be 24 years old and the best player you're franchise has ever had, to those same Rockets for an athletic, overhyped, overpaid shotblocker (ballooning your payroll at the center position to $17mill/yr), a backup 3-point shooter, and a low lottery pick. You might as well hold a press conference announcing that you work for the Rockets, while you're at it.

    Sorry guys, Sharif isn't coming to Houston, no matter how much you sugarcoat it. He's locked up until 2004 and is in no position to be making demands. Even if the Grizz do feel it necessary to move him, don't you think they could find some offers just a little bit better than Cato+Walt+pick? It'll take some serious **** to get Rahim out of Vancouver.

    Hell, IMHO, getting Duncan would be more realistic, as San Antonio has their hands tied and Duncan has his choice of teams.

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    [This message has been edited by thacabbage (edited May 09, 2000).]
     
  18. NIKEstrad

    NIKEstrad Contributing Member
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    Basically though, since he's BYC, there are not many options:

    1.) The Clippers, the Magic, and the Bulls could trade for him, but none of those teams have good players (except Clipper's have Odom) making a trade with them have even LESS value
    2.) The Rockets and Indiana have exceptions, and could pull it off. Indiana has no reason for him, cause Rose is their SF
    3.) Other than that it'd half to be a 3 way trade

    a 3 way trade would have to involve one of the teams under the cap.
    1. Van trades Shareef+plus $5 mill for 10 mill they can get back
    2. Team 2 trades $10 mill in salary to Van and Team 3 (total), and gets in return Shareef.
    3. Team 3 under cap/with exception receives 5 mill player from Vancouver, takes cap hit.

    Vancouver would trade 15 mill in salary, takes back 10 mill.

    Team 2 trades 10 mill, receives 10 mill

    Team 3 under the cap takes a 5 mill cap hit.

    Vancouver also I believe would get a 5 million dollar trade exception in this scenario (they also would from us; another reason they would trade with us)



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  19. haven

    haven Member

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    DaFranchise:

    You're telling me that Mobley has more potential than Abdur-Rahim? Face reality. Mobley can score well, and perhaps play a little defense.

    Abdur-Rahim is a small forward who manages 20 and 10 (10! from the small forward position!)... Mobley is a SG who MIGHT score 18 pts per game some day. Where is the comparison, here?

    Mobley is a good player... a great scorer, but you can't compare the two.

    Thecabbage: I agree... it's extremely unlikely. It would have to be a 3 way deal, or they would have to think very highly of that trade exception we have.

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  20. Azim da Dream

    Azim da Dream Member

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    thacabbage,
    I agree with most of what you said. But isn't Glen Grunwald GM of the Toronto Raptors? I know both teams reside in that no-name country above you, but come on man, they're in completely different conferences and 3 time zones apart! [​IMG]

    btw, 'Reef won't disregard a disappointing yet promising season with the Grizzlies just because his GM got canned. Chances are, he will stay at least another year.

    Azim da Dream

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