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Discussion: We are NOT rebuilding our team very well

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Newgirl, Apr 8, 2003.

  1. Newgirl

    Newgirl Member

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    SORRY FOR THE NEGATIVITY HERE. IF YOU DON'T LIKE TO READ NEGATIVE STUFF ABOUT THE ROCKETS, DON'T READ OR REPLY THIS THREAD.

    1. Let's look at the way on how to build a team. In today's luxury tax-salary cap NBA environment, I believe that you have to understand how to play the luxury tax-salary cap game properly to position yourself for longterm success. And the key to that is that you NEVER overpay for talent. It's also unwise to tie your money up in enigmas and unproven commodities and cross-your-fingers players even if you are the ultra-rich Mark Cuban.

    Some franchises are foolish and give guys more than what the market is willing to pay. These teams ultimately suffer, their luxury tax penalty is harsher than it would be if they were financially responsible, and their bloated payroll ultimately severely limits what they are able to do because of the salary cap (and other teams' unwillingness to take on overpaid players). Prime examples of this are Knicks and Blazers. They're total mess right now and I can't see them improving in the near future.

    I personally think San Antonio Spurs played this luxury tax-salary cap game THE BEST (This is UNLESS they pay top dollars for guys like Olowokandi, Lamar Odom or Elton Brand this summer). The vast majority of teams have killed themselves by overpaying for talent. These teams will suffer as a result, and the suffering doesn't necessarily end anytime soon. It will take YEARS for these teams to catch up with San Antonio.

    BTW, I am not suggesting here that no team can compete with Spurs right now. The Kings, Mavs and Lakers clearly ARE competing with the Spurs right now. But they aren't BETTER than the Spurs right now and they certainly won't be better this time NEXT YEAR, that's for sure (Remember, the Spurs have cap room, and these teams do not). MAYBE one of these 3 teams manages to beat San Antonio and goes on to win the NBA Finals this year. This could obviously happen. But that doesn't really invalidate my argument. The Spurs are STILL in a much better position for longterm success than the Kings, Mavs, or Lakers. Because the Spurs are going to improve through free agent market and they are not. Therefore, the Spurs will be the OVERWHELMING favorite to win it all next season and they are the favorite THIS YEAR too.

    Another franchise played this tax-salary cap game very well I think is Detroit Pistons. They're already No. 1 team in the East. They paid only 44m this season (which ranks 26th in the WHOLE league) and only committed to 36m next season (that means cap room) AND they have Memphis's draft pick next year. So they're going to get better.

    2. Let's take a HONEST look at our team. Unfortunately I think we are 1 of those many teams who don't play the luxury tax-salary cap game very well. We simply have TOO MANY overpaid AND long-term contracts.

    Please look at our salary situation http://www.**************/salaries/houston.htm on Hoops Hype.

    Here is my assessment on our roster:

    Good friendly contracts:
    - Mobley (no matter you like or hate him, he's our BEST contract)
    - Francis (he's paid for max next year but he's our team star along with Yao, so he's worth it, at least so it appears right now)
    - Yao (no explantion needed)
    - Griffin (I don't like him as a player and I was totally against trading 3 draft picks for him BUT he's on a rookie contract, he's young and has potential, that makes a good combination)
    - Nachbar (see Griffin)

    Bad contracts:
    - Cato (he's improved a lot this season but let's FACE THE FACT, 24m in the next 3 years for a bench player is simply TOO MUCH)
    - Taylor (see Cato and replace it with 35m in the next 4 years)
    - Norris (see Cato and replace is with 16m in the next 4 years)
    - Rice (overpaid big time but thankfully his contract will expire next summer)

    People, if you think these guys will improve to live up to their contracts, you're living in a dream land and you're going to be disappointed. These guys are all over 28 years old and as good as they're now, they will NEVER live up to their contracts

    And the WORST part is not even overpaying these guys, it's their big contracts taking the MAJORITY of our cap room.

    Doesn't matter (They're FAs this year):
    - Posey (I fear very much that we will give a bad contract to this guy ala Cato and Norris)
    - Collier
    - Morris
    - Hawkins
    - Maddox

    Because of Cato's, Taylor's and Norris's contracts, we have NO cap room in the near future unless we trade for some expiring contracts in the process (which is frankly unlikely to happen when we want to compete). Their contracts absolutely KILLED us and LIMITED what we could do in the market. We will have 52m guaranteed contracts next season and 43m the year after, 41m in 2005/06 season. That means unless the cap room rise dramatically, NOT until 2006 we will have the cap room. And actually that year is the year Yao's contract will expire. So unless we don't resign him, we WILL NOT have cap room that year either. That means that We will NEVER have cap room to sign big-time free agents probably for the next decade, largely thanks to Cato, Taylor and Norris.

    And face it, in the current luxury tax-salary cap climate, which teams are going to trade us good value impact players (i.e. players with good talent AND friendly contract) for Cato's, Taylor's and Norris's bad contracts? Certainly we can package them with 1 or 2 our good contracts but those are the kind of contracts we don't want to lose as well and their contracts are also TOO CHEAP to have All-Star caliber players in return (no teams will ever give up an All-Star on a rookie contact).

    Of course, we can improve through draft. But we're expected to be a playoffs team for the next decade so unless we trade for 1, we will NOT have a lottory pick for the next decade as well. And the odds of us finding a Tony Parker or Manu Ginobili San Antonio Spurs style in the late position of the draft look slim either if our draft history is anything to go by (remember Rodrick Rhodes, Serge Zwikker, Bryce Drew, Mirsad Turkcan, Jason Collier, Dan Langhi, Terence Morris?). And I haven't even mentioned that we have no 1st round pick next season.

    People, if you haven't realized that we got SO LUCKY last year with Francis's illness (of course no one wanted him to get sick) and the lottory, you better realize it now. Let's be very honest, without Yao, our future outlook was even LESS BRIGHT than the likes of the Bulls and the Nugguts, much much less the Suns and the Warriors. But even with Yao, our chance of surpassing the superpowers of the league (the Spurs, the Kings, the Mavs, the Lakers) doesn't look very good.

    We have NO cap room to improve. Our trade options are LIMITED. We have NO decent draft picks. Our hands are virtually TIED.

    So unless Yao Ming develop into the next Shaq or Tim Duncan and Steve Francis becomes as good as Kobe Bryant or Jason Kidd, Houston Rockets WILL NOT win the champsionship for at least the next 5 years, largely thanks to the too-easy-to-dish-out-big-money-long-term-contract bad decisions of our management team.
     
  2. KeepJuaquin

    KeepJuaquin Member

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    Yeah. Don't you have to go to school or something?

    I think everybody already knows this. We don't have the greatest group of players considering how much they are paid...Glen Rice makes as much as Jason Kidd. Cato makes more than Brent Barry.

    Too late now. We can't really get any better unless he is willing to spend money. We just have to be patient and wait for all the bad contracts to expire.

    I'm amazed at what the Pistons have done. They have been awesome and have spent very little compared to others.

    SPURS. Master genuine franchise. They have a future.

    We do too...if Eddie gets better and Boki gets better.

    I HOPE we do not sign James Posey for too much. There are so many other players that we can get that are better than him but cheaper...
     
  3. MFW2310

    MFW2310 Contributing Member

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    Nothing you said we don't know already and there is no solution, because the day the Rox make any change in their management is the day everybody on cc.net celebrates.
     
  4. francis 4 prez

    francis 4 prez Contributing Member

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    didn't your dream team the spurs just luck right on into duncan just like we did yao? i could just as easily point to cassell, horry, othella, and cat as examples of good draft picks (dickerson would look good if he wasn't always injured, the talent is there). rice comes off when we can sign eg. cato comes off when we can sign yao. we have yao and steve, all we need are complimentary players, it's not like we have to make a huge splash in free agency (not that it would hurt) to get better, we need time, maturity and maybe even a real live offensive system. and i'm pretty sure everyone isn't holding their breaths on mo t, mooch, and cato getting better at this point.

    and who cares about the pistons. they are a good team in a terrible conference, not legit title contenders. i'm not sure if we will, but i've heard enough people talk of the rockets as a future powerhouse to know we've done a pretty good job getting the major things right. time and tinkering is what i feel is left to do. we'll see how that goes, but you don't need 10+ million in cap room to do it.
     
  5. Believe

    Believe Contributing Member

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    Either way newgirl you just depressed the hell out of me. Have a great day.
     
  6. CriscoKidd

    CriscoKidd Member

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    Hate to break it to you, but the team is already "rebuilt".

    This is the team you will see on the floor for the next 4 or 5 years, minus a few tweaks here or there.

    SA has this Duncan guy, 2nd best player in the game, that automatically makes their team have a better future outlook. Go have fun as spursreport.com if you love them so much.

    Other teams have played the "salary cap game", and haven't done squat. Chicago and Magic suck. Denver will suck after they play it. Utah will suck when they do. Clippers are the best at the salary cap game too, aren't they? :D
     
  7. TCDREAM

    TCDREAM Member

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    Hey Newgirl, what do you look like? do you have a boyfriend?
     
  8. A-Train

    A-Train Contributing Member

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    The Rockets are really in a tough position with Steve. All along, they said they would offer him a max contract, which they did. They had no idea that Yao would progress so quickly, and now everyone wants Yao to be the main focus of the offense. So, you have one person that's paid like a franchise player, yet another person that all the fans WANT to be the franchise player. If Steve defers to Yao, then everyone will complain that he's overpaid. If he decides to be the main focus of the offense, then he's selfish and doesn't want to give Yao a chance. Retrospectively, it looks like Steve's deal doesn't seem that good now. Rockets management brought this upon themselves for historically being too anxious to hand out large, multi-year deals. When it's Yao's turn to get paid, will Les use him as an example and lowball him on a contract? We'll have to wait and see...
     
  9. kidrock8

    kidrock8 Member

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    I appreciate any post that is straight and to the point, and doesn't blow sunshine up anyone's ass. Good post.

    I think we have a solid young foundation in Yao and Francis.

    What we need is 10 guys who can play defense, rebound, and shoot.

    The MCE should enable us to get 2 or 3 decent role players a year.

    However, albatross contracts like Moochie's, Mo's, and Cato's, will make Les less likely to sign FAs.

    In all honesty, Moochie should be a 3rd PG, or an IL guy. Mo should only be a backup PF. Cato is and should be a backup C. The fact that we have 3 backup players making 20+ mill/year combined might be too big of a financial handcuff.

    I really hope that Les is willing to use the MCE to sign guys who would be upgrades over our crappy backups.
     
  10. Gutter Snipe

    Gutter Snipe Contributing Member

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    Newgirl, I like how you are one of the few people who seem to understand the importance of salary cap management. However, you really are a glass is half empty kind of gal, aren't you?

    Allow me to present the case for the glass being half full. The Rockets have made a few bad salary cap decisions over the years, but nothing that hurts us too badly - and this is why:

    1. Except for teams with Cuban-type owners, teams with two superstars are never significant players in the free agent market. Even if we just had the good contracts you mentioned, we couldn't sign a Tim Duncan because we would never be able to afford to sign Yao Ming when his contract came up. (Because our owner will not go $10 million over the salary cap to sign a player)

    2. The first part of building a championship contender is getting two superstars who can also play good defense. Houston is in great shape in the first regard - Steve needs to play better defense and Yao needs a little seasoning, but they both have the potential to take us to the top.

    3. The second part is surrounding your stars with complementary role players. Let's look at our current batch:

    Cuttino is a good shooter, and is transforming himself from a one-on-one only offensive player to a defensive stopper with a shot.

    Griffin is also interesting. His recent troubles aside, with our current cast Houston could be better off with him developing into a good role player than a star.

    I like Posey. He brings energy, defense, and seems to excel against weaker teams by pouncing on their miscues. We really need a player that helps us beat weaker teams, as we would be in the playoffs easily if we had taken care of business earlier in the year against the creampuffs. I hope Houston bites the bullet and keeps him for around the mid-class exception.

    Rice is a hired gun. He was brought in because we had the cap space and really needed a good shooter. Without him, we would not be near the playoffs this year. That being said, I hope he can be replaced in the near future by....

    Boki. Bostjan Nachbar is the unknown element. Nobody knows how much, if at all he will contribute in the future, but I hope he will grow up to be a good complement to Posey.

    Mo Taylor is proving his worth in the second half of this season. He is unstoppable without a double team in the low post, and is proving a good complement to Eddie while Eddie grows up. Look for him or Eddie to be traded as soon as Eddie's rookie contract is up.

    Cato has finally played up to most of the value in his contract this year. He has really helped our team by allowing us to limit Yao's minutes as necessary. He plays good defense, is second in the league in rebounding per minute, and has even shown some low-post moves other than the alley-oop this year. Since all big men are overpaid, Cato is definitely a moveable contract when Yao is ready to take more of his minutes.

    Moochie is our worst contract. He gives us a boost sometimes, but his free throw shooting and lack of defense scare me.

    So the big question is: are some of our role players moveable, or are we stuck with too many bad contracts as Newgirl believes?

    Rice is moveable, as a $9 million expiring contract has a great deal of value. Cuttino is moveable, but I believe that the franchise will respect his willingness to do whatever the Rockets want and will keep him here. MoT is valuable as a big man, but he needs one more year to re-establish himself as a healthy force.

    I think the Rockets will look to move Cato plus Moochie for a serviceable center (12 mpg) and a backup guard plus an expiring contract.

    I think we are in a reasonable position. Newgirl blasts the Rockets for signing bad contracts and gives San Antonio props for being lucky. Draft picks are basically a crapshoot and we should be thankful for what we have drafted. Steve, Yao, Cuttino, and Griffin could be a great core to work from.
     
  11. CriscoKidd

    CriscoKidd Member

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    If they wouldn't have signed SF longterm, somone else would've. You can debate whether or not he is a franchise player, but certainly not that he's a max player.
     
  12. kidrock8

    kidrock8 Member

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    Definitely.

    Let's just hope Francis realizes that it's a big man's game.
     
  13. zzhiggins

    zzhiggins Member

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    Dont misunderstand..Yao cant get a contract like Shaq for instance, who makes 23 mill, until Yao has about ten years in the league.Yao will get a max contract..about 12 mill, no matter who he signs with. The Rockets wont have cap problems with Steve and Yao until Steves contract is up 6 years from now.
    Les wont have anything to do with how much Yao is paid...he will get a max contract...from anyone in the league.
     
  14. pasox2

    pasox2 Contributing Member
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    I think we can move Rice Cato and maybe even Taylor in the offseason.

    Rice is an expiring contract.
    Cato is a reasonable value center.

    Taylor can be packaged with a value-added player, like Cuttino or Eddie. In my dreams, we also pawn the Mooch off on someone that way.

    We need to dump those four (bench) contracts and replace them with reasonable bench contracts. We could also use a starting 4, a starting 3, and a tall, good shooting 2.

    The good news is that Yao doesn't get paid for 4 years. We could conceivably move players and acquire One more MAX talent, and not have to dump him or Francis until Yao greenlights. A lot can happen in 4 years - that's plenty of time to set up the remaining contracts. The emergency out - we can always move Steve.

    My declared targets for this offseason are Odom and Redd. I'd
    like to get Odom for 7 Mil. and Redd for 5, both on 3-4 year deals.
    If not them, I still want a swingman to get the ball into Yao or out to Steve, and someone who can do something dynamic with the ball (besides dribble and jack) if it comes back to him from either of those guys. A real swing threat would help kill those horrible crosscourt passes that cripple us now, and get the ball moving in and out.

    A few years of MCE role-players at PF, PG or perimeter D (2or3), and we're pretty good. Right now, I'd say our biggest problem is - we - err - that is - the rox - can't move the ball, and can't shoot. Attack that problem with multidimesional players that can move the ball and shoot. SAR works here if you can get him by dumping your bad contracts - his bad contract runs out just in time. We do have options.
     
  15. Deuce

    Deuce Context & Nuance

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    SPURS situation.
    They have one of the VERY BEST players in the league in Duncan. They got lucky and got Parker in the draft who is playing near all star level under a rookie contract. They drafted Gibobili and is playing under a 2nd round pick rookie contract. Steve Smith's contract and David Robinson's contracts come off the books this year, but up until this time they were pretty hefty. Stephen Jackson has been playing a lot better basketball than ANYONE thought he would be able to play. Many people thought Rose's contract was hefty in the off season but has lived up to his contract with his play.

    Anyone see a trend here? The Spurs are in a unique situation with how their roster is playing out. A lot of players on that team are "overachieving" and you add that to Duncan and the fact that the "overachievers" are being paid very "minimal salary" gives this team a huge boost. This team would not look as exciting salary cap wise if certain players that are overachieving were playing average ball. Imagine if Parker was playing like Dan Dickau and Ginobli was playing like Nachbar? How great would their roster look then? They would then go out and overpay for a ton of talent to surround Duncan with. They just have a unique situation. Just remember that when Parker's rookie contract comes up he is going to want some serious coin. Probably starting around what Rashard Lewis got this year. Add that in with what Duncan will be making and perhaps another Max contract added this year and this team will paying a lot of salary.


    ROCKETS situation.
    Cato overpaid? Perhaps. But not in terms of "starting" centers in the NBA. He is right on AVERAGE. Cato is finally earning his money this year with his play and quite frankly his "stock" has never been higher! All the more reason to trade him this offseason to some Eastern Conference team that needs bulk/rebounding/interior defense (Bucks anyone?).

    Taylor is overpaid but finally at the end of the year is coming back to his old self. If he continues this level of play all of next year and is injury free his stock will go back up and he will be valuable again in the trade market.

    Moochie however seems untradable with his contract and poor play. We are just stuck with this guy. At least with Taylor and Cato they are playing well and contributing. Moochie isnt' helping the team at all. :(

    Glen Rice's contract is outrageous but it comes off the books after next season. He is actually a huge commodity now! Who would have thought? The trend in the NBA is to "dump salary" and his expiring contract might net the Rockets a QUALITY role player from a team willing to give up decent talent that doesn't fit with their team in exchange for cap space. How the Rockets manage Rice's expiring contract I feel will be very important.


    Bottom line, every team in the NBA overpays for talent. That is a fact. The only reason the Spurs haven't done this recently is because they haven't HAD to recently because of their players overachieving.

    I think the Rockets roster is in decent shape with the team building around their stars Francis and Yao. They just need to continue to add decent role players to the mix that mesh well with Francis' and Yao's games.
     
  16. Newgirl

    Newgirl Member

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    Gutter Snipe,

    The thing is that if we didn't have so many bad contracts, if we had more good friendly contracts, we could be a player ANY TIME in the market. Those bad contracts HURT us big-time because we couldn't now struggle to improve our team and couldn't get better players .

    That's why I said we better hope and pray that Francis and Yao became ABSOLUTE superstars like Kobe and Shaq or we are screwed.

    Mobley I agree is good. And the most important part is that he has a very friendly movable contract. Very important nowadays. Even he doesn't fit our plan, we can easily move him.

    Oh good point, great point. If Griffin does become a star, we will really STRUGGLE to sign him. We have 44m committed at the end of next season and that's without Posey and Rice signing. We surely WILL NOT go over 50m because of him, especially if we don't contend for a title that time.

    But you surely will expect him to breakout next year. Players tend to perform in their contract years and then drop off once they receive a long-term contract.

    If Posey gets a contract like Cato's and Taylor's, I will be absolutely mad. He's not worth it.

    No argument from me.

    Taylor does perform well but how could you justify his contract? Do you know that he WILL receive 9.7m in 2006/07? Who would want his contract?

    Sorry Cato's contract is unmovable unless we package with 1 of our good contacts. He will get paid 8.6m up to 2005/06. That's acceptable for a reserve center?

    Come on we need a BETTER 3rd guard than him. Fact.

    Rice is movable because his contract is expiring. But if we move him for a similar contract, we will be over 50m at the start of 2004/05 season AND that's WITHOUT Posey AND Griffin signing. Do you really think that our owner will accept this kind of payroll?

    Cat is movable. But he's with a good contract. We will STRUGGLE to get the same value in return. That's no point moving him unless we want to get rid of a bad contract along with him.

    No one I repeat NO ONE would want to take on Taylor's contract. Pls don't overrate our own player. No one would pay a play 8-9m a year for 10 pts, 5 rebs.

    Who would give up this? Who would want to take on 2 long-term overpaid players?
     
  17. Newgirl

    Newgirl Member

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    1. I don't expect us to sign any MCE player this summer. Don't you understand we are going to pay over 50m next season with only 10 players contracts committed? We are a borderline playoffs team. Do you REALLY think that Les will pay nearly 60m for a borderline playoffs team?

    2. We will and should NEVER add an undeserved max player. That would really screw up the cap space big time. And actually who would give us a deserved max player for any of our players minus Yao and Francis?

    3. Tell me how we could get Odom and Redd. And besides, I will NEVER pay a 7m starting and multi years contract for Odom. He's Mo Taylor II. And why do we want Redd when we have Mobley? They are exactly the same kind of players and with similar contracts as well.

    4. SAR's a bad contract who Hawks want to get rid of. Why do you think they would receive our bad contracts for their bad contract? Besides he's a guy I would NEVER want on my team.
     
  18. Newgirl

    Newgirl Member

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    Steve Francis I don't think is the problem here. As someone said, you might question him as a franchise player BUT not a max year.

    Consider this:

    Francis will be paid 10m next season.

    But Taylor 7.8m, Cato 7.3m, Rice, 9.8m, they are THE REAL PROBLEM.
     
  19. TCDREAM

    TCDREAM Member

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    Answer my ?
     
  20. count_dough-ku

    count_dough-ku Contributing Member

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    I don't think the Rockets' situation is anywhere near as bad as you make it out to be. First of all, they've got two bonafide superstars in Yao and Steve which is something very few teams in the league can claim at the moment(including your beloved Spurs barring the continued rapid development of Tony Parker or the signing of Jason Kidd in the offseason). That's a helluva foundation right there.

    Secondly, the issue of cap room isn't a big concern at this point. So the Rockets can't sign any big name free agents. Who cares? First of all, who the hell is gonna come here? Jason Kidd? He's either staying put in New Jersey or moving to Crap Antonio. He's not coming to a Rockets team that already has a point guard making the max. Elton Brand? Sorry, he's staying in L.A. at least one more season. Michael Olowokandi? We already have a center, and a damn good one at that. Jermaine O'Neal? He's staying in Indiana. Gary Payton? Too old, and also see Jason Kidd above. Juwan Howard? Please, even if the Rockets have given up on Eddie Griffin already, he's not the answer. The second reason it doesn't matter that they can't sign these guys is the fact that this team doesn't need anymore superstars. It needs role players. Which brings me to my next point...

    I agree 100% with you on these contracts the Rockets have given out recently(with the exception of Steve's which I'm fine with). Mo is definitely overpaid, although he's made a big comeback in the second half of this season. Moochie is a scrub, no question about it. His contract wouldn't look nearly as bad had the guy not regressed to his CBA ways the last two seasons. Cato, like Mo, has made significant strides this year, but he's still paid way too much, even if he were starting for us. But let's take a closer look at these contracts for a moment. Mo's deal? It was a show of loyalty by Rudy and Les in return for the guy signing a cheap 1-year deal. And I'm ok with that. This is the same thing Jerry Colangelo has done for years with the Phoenix Suns, and it helps give the organization a great rep with players around the league. Moochie? He had a pretty solid year in 2000-2001 and if you'll recall, both the Rockets and 90% of this board wanted him back. Again, they did overpay the guy, but after the problems they'd had with the Dream and Shandon Anderson negotiations that summer, I can kinda see why they gave him so much to stay put. Cato? The Rockets overreacted, plain and simple. He had a great preseason, Dream was on his last legs, and the organization wanted to make sure they didn't lose one of the vital pieces of the Quitten trade to free agency.

    All that being said, it's not like the Rockets are stuck with what they've got(and even if they were, that's not the end of the world). Cato is a hot commodity with his play this season plus the fact that the East is starved for quality big men. Rice is looking attractive with his 9 million scheduled to come off the books next year. Mobley has a lot of trade value thanks to his bargain contract and scoring ability. And let's not forget the mid-level exception. Guys like Eric Piatkowski and Jon Barry would be great fits on this team and won't require big money to get them.

    So to summarize, the Rockets have plenty of moves they can make to fill out the roster this offseason. But they must keep two things in mind when doing so. First, they need role players, not all-stars. And second and most important, every move they make needs to be centered around Yao Ming and how said role player compliments him. He is the future of this franchise and needs to be treated as such.
     

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