Disconcerting thing about Vspan or am I worrying too much

I know we are all guilty of it but it seems like you are sticking to apoint and trying to justify it against all else. Some of your quotes are just straight out BS.

I watched all the highlights and a dozen full games of Vspan before he stepped foot in the U.S.. Now that doesn't make me an expert but it does make me better educated about the man than you.

How can you say he has played downright bad and then say he has had a couple of good stints. It's almost 2 extremes and makes you sound stupid. The guy has had limited opportunities and to have a couple of good stints means he has shown something. He is a very good passer he plays hard-nosed defense and he plays with heart. The fans love him because his effort on the court not because imaginary dream of the white hope. I saw something in this kid and I still do but Van Gundy IMO is killing it.

Seriously did you follow the Rockets in the offseason. All they talked about was needing help at the guard spots. Rafer sucked and we had no backup PG. Head was never in the picture. Van Gundy wanted him traded and Tmac was our SF coming off an injury not our 2. Snyder was help but again Head was on the block Van Gundy did not want him and was desperate for James when didn't happen the ball was taken out of Van Gundy's hands and CD signed Vspan saying we really needed you. So yes at that time the Rockets needed desperate help at the guards spot and convinced Vspan to come over. Of course now it is a different situation. Vspan is 5th in the 2 guard rotation and is not even considered an option at the 1.

What opportunities? Billy has not been given 1 opportunity to play the point this season. In spite of Rafer's poor play and even when JLIII was on the DL was Vspan given an opportunity.

Again another example of you trying to use false stats to justify your point. It is obvious to most that Vspan's TO's have gone extemely down and his passing when given the opportunity is still the most creative on the team. The last game he got a TO when he made a good pass to Hayes who then stepped out of bounds. He has improved significantly and if you are honest to yourself you will acknowledge as much.

On only call it the way I see it. Anyone who says I think he should get a free pass or for that matter thinks I have a love for 1 player or another over the Rockets as a team is sadly mistaken. I am Rockets fan first and foremost and want to win a championship. I clearly thought Vspan could help contribute in that area. In the offseason I thought it could be a great contribution. Now I don't see it as so much. Yes, in spite of how talented I think Vspan is I believe we need 3 point shooters on the floor more than playmakers. Tmac takes alot of the point guard duties away and in our slow down offense a creative point just isn't as needed.

So as terrible as Rafer is he is still better, Head is extremely better and JLIII is better. Of course 1 could argue that the 3 point shooting could be sufficed with Novak but it is a tough argument with as well as JHO has been playing. As for the 2 Vspan is behind Tmac, Head , Bonzi, and Snyder. So unless VSpan improves the 3point part of his game drastically I think his minutes should be limited at the point. Are you surprised? Don't be overly because still think JVG wasted opportunities to play the kid earlier and I still hate the way he treated him unequal to others who made worst mistakes. I can't stand that part of his coaching, that he treats some players like Tmac and JHO and even Alston at times like primaddonnas and treats Vspan like a dog. He used to do the same to Yao until recently. It is not so much the screaming at players it's that he has different rules for different players. Oh and don't say it ain't so, I have been to enough games to see it up close.

The sad thing is Vspan is done for the Rockets this season. Barring injury to a couple of players I don't see Van Gundy giving him significant minutes outside of garbage. My hope is that they send Vspan to the NBDL and let him get some at least similar experience to the NBA game.

 

I am in 100% agreement with OMR !

DD

 

good stuff. you really are delusional.

 

Thank you. I try.

 

Nope, preseason stats means little when it comes to player evaluation. Novak shot the lights out in the preseason games, but he has done jack in regular season. On the other hand, Head didn't shoot particularly well in October, but he elevated his game once the season started.

We were discussing specifically about VSpan's turnover here, not his shooting nor other aspects of his game. He may or may not suck but don't bring straw man's argument into the debate please.

You may not like the word "manipulating," but the fact remains one cannot simply extrapolate a bench player's stats in limited playing time to 48 minutes and then compare them with those of starters who play a majority of the full game. The "manipulation" may be unintentional, but it is still misguided and more likely than not produces artifacts.

I am not looking at stats in a vacuum but preseason stats indeed carry much smaller weight than their regular season counterparts. VSpan's numbers in international play may be relevant in the overall assessment of his skills and potential in NBA, but in the confinement of the specific discussion on the merit of extrapolation of VSpan's turnovers in his regular season games they are no less than red herring.

 

Sam and I seem to be in agreement here.

Wasn't one of the knocks on Spanoulis from the outset that he was turnover prone? It's not like this should be a particular surprise.

As far as your first point, Novak's shooting ability is a known quantity. Sure it hasn't been completely lights out in his NBA time, but his reasons for not getting on the court have everything to do with being lost on defense and on the offensive sets, not on whether or not he can shoot.

I'm using this as a rate. I fully understand the guy who scores 4 points in 3 minutes. Just like in the discussion on fouls, if Spanoulis is averaging 6.2 fouls per game (I don't know it off hand), the problem with the fouls is not that he might foul out, but it's how the fouls come. Spanoulis has to get better at picking his spots - I thought he played just fine in his spot minutes against Memphis running the PnR with Hayes, despite the turnover.

I don't really understand what you're trying to argue? My point is simple: Spanoulis is turnover prone. It was a knock on him coming over here, it was a knock on him in the preseason, it is a knock on him through most's observations, and Van Gundy clears all doubt, calling him a "turnover machine". The statistics then back it up. Where's the problem? Is your point that he's not turnover prone? If that's not your point, then you're arguing statistics for the sake of arguing.

Put it this way, even if you "throw out" your two so called outliers (and every statistics professor I've ever met has told me "respect your data", if you're going to talk about analysis), Spanoulis is still averaging a higher turnover rate (~3.5/48) than Alston (~3.0/48).

I know everyone preaches this penetration theory of Spanoulis, but the reality is, guards playing around TMac have to be able to shoot - and that goes back to the Orlando days (the primary difference between his 03-04 team that was worst in the league and the team that made the playoffs the year before was Mike Miller for Drew Gooden). It's even more important with Yao in there. So you can take out his worst performances, and he's still more turnover prone than Rafer, still clearly a worse shooter than Rafer, and while I think his defensive potential is high and he'll be good eventually, he doesn't know what's going on there either. I can't stand Alston, but I can't find a performance based reason to have Spanoulis out there over him.

OMR - Spanoulis has played poorly, with a couple exceptions. As a whole Yao has played extremely well, with a couple exceptions (Minnesota, Phoenix). It's hardly a contradiction.

Further, you're still making stuff up. When did Van Gundy want Head traded? The plan going into the season doesn't matter. TMac was playing the 3 only because they thought Battier could play the 4. If that stuff mattered, VSpan still wouldn't be in the 2 guard rotation because we were all pencilling Bonzi in for 35 mpg. That went out the window early in the season, now TMac's playing the 2 and Head is backing him up. Isn't the mark of a good coach the ability to make such adjustments?

Stop turning everything into a Van Gundy thread.

 

Well first of all in Greece you normally clap for a good play, you rarely stand uo and jump in the air, except for huge, game-deciding plays.
Besides, this is how his character is, he hardly smiles and always looks sad. In the greek NT his nickname is "lush", as he looks like having drunk 2 bottles jimmy walker.
But of course, the fact that he obviously will not play anymore this season does not contribute to him celebreating for each play.

 

So what was the "knock" on Novak's shooting from the outset? Hasn't it turned out to be a surprise as well?

I am not calling for disregarding the data of outlier, but only to emphasize we need to put things in perspective. Again, the per 48-minute data are inherently flawed.

My point is the data is inconclusive and the extrapolation warrants little merit.

 

He's probably bored considering the atmosphere he's used to

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And you're throwing out the baby with the bathwater.

OK, based on anecdotal evidence of his play in Europe, my personal observation of his play through European highlights, and quotes from Rockets Head Coach Jeff Van Gundy, I have come to the following conclusions:

1. Vassilis Spanoulis is substantially more turnover prone than the average NBA point guard and more turnover prone in particular than Rockets starting point guard, Rafer Alston and current backup John Lucas III.

2. I further find that turnovers in the current Rockets offense under Jeff Van Gundy are a particular point of emphasis for the team, given the slower pace, thus fewer possessions per game.

Do you disagree?

Huh? Spanoulis had a turnover problem coming in, and it hasn't yet been cured. He had a knock, it's shown to be true. Novak's "knocks" were on his strength and skills other than shooting, and they've shown no remedy, either. Novak has played half the minutes Spanoulis has played. He's put up 18 3's, made 6. Let's get him a sample size of 30, and I'd expect it to rise. Novak's either in a shooting slump due to going from being the #1 option to a situational shooter, or he's freezing up in the NBA like a Dan Langhi. I haven't heard anyone try and portray Spanoulis as being in a "turnover slump". The numbers are just another part of the picture. I had a professor also tell me, "Bad data is better than no data." Seems like a horrible thing to say, but if I had no other information, when JL3 has 4 turnovers in 97 minutes of action while shooting 45%+, I would give JL3 the backup minutes too over Spanoulis' 18 turnovers in 178 minutes on 30%+ shooting.

If turnovers have been a problem for Spanoulis' international career (which I would guess Morey would know the best of all), then it's something I would watch more carefully, and Spanoulis has done nothing to tacit these concerns. Van Gundy also gets a bigger sample size - practice (more qualitatively than quantitatively I'd imagine). Again, it's not like it's a shock for a rookie guard learning a new offense, new culture, and new teammates to have high turnover numbers - it's just that when that happens his time on the court will be limited.

You're trying to portray as using statistics as a stand alone, or trying to do so yourself - I'm not. I know what I see, what Van Gundy says, and the numbers are right there for it with regard to Spanoulis' turnover problems. Anecdotally, JVG still puts Novak in there when it's the last offensive set of the quarter, so there's no doubt what he sees in practice as well.

 

Okay, here's my take on the whole thing. Vspan and Chuck Hayes are just not going to get much playing time with Yao out. Why? With Yao Ming out, we're also out 26 points per night. So, players like John Lucas III and Juwan Howard will play more minutes because they are scorers. As soon as Yao comes back, Howard and John Lucas III's minutes will go back to the way it was and you'll see more Hayes and more Vspan. Until Yao heals up, I expect things to be the way they are right now.

When Tracy went down, I said (on here) that Juwan would be the guy that picks up the scoring more than anyone. Same applies for Yao being out because he's done it before.

Vspan is a situational player until he improves his shot/turnover prob. The situation he fills is on defense. With Yao out, the team's recipe for victory is scoring quickly and more often than the other team. That is not a strong suit for Vasillis. We'll see him more when Yao returns.

 

Huh? well your initial post on this topic didn't say turnovers, you said we shouldn't use /40 minute stats at all to evaluate him at all.

I take it you're conceding the guy can't shoot from outside? I think that's reason alone to keep him off the court in the Rockets offense.

Manipulating is when you take all his high turnover games both in the regular season and preseason and dismiss them as outliers for no other reason other than to make Spanouis look good, especially given his reputation as an aggressive player who's more of a scorer than a passer.

But they all confirm what is obvious from every method of observation: Spanoulis is not an effecitve NBA player at this point. You're excluding NBA stats, you're excluding pre-season stats, you're excluding his non-NBA stats...
LOL, is there anything else left to exclude? You should be happy that he's ridign the bench where he belongs so you won't have to exclude anything else.

 

In his limited PT last month, the positive with Vspan is that he has a big heart and played fearlessly. He is extremely quick with his feet and savvy in avoiding picks to keep his man in front him. He showed his tenacious D on Areanas that brought me out of my seat. He occassionly showed his vision and creativity in passing. As a player, he has more tools to succeed than any rockets guard, that I agree.
But equally glaringly are his TO problem, his shooting, and his struggle to adjust to NBA style(often lost in the system). I remember JVG said that he fully expected that it would take time for Vspan to make the adjustment because all other Euro players did when came to NBA. JVG also raved about Vspan's D in a press conference, which is really rare for him to do. I think JVG is fair here. He clearly knows Vspan's strength and weakness, and at this point he is taking it slow and would not want to rush him or the team. We all know JVG hates kuckleheaded plays, and unfortunately Vspan has some of that in him. I trully believe that Vspan's season is not done. He will get another chance once he can prove he adjusts to NBA better whether in practice, in limited PT or special situation when he is called upon.
As of right now, Rafer is our start PG, Lutha, Synder and Bonzi are all ahead of Vspan. We are still doing reasonably well, there is no way we should devote signicant minutes to develop a late 2nd round draft pick when the season is still very much on the line. If you say you are a Rocket fan first foremost, you should buy this. A true Rocket fan would not go out full force critizing the head coach when his team is filled with injuries and he still found ways to win by coaching his tail off.

 

Is it possible that JVG was not overly excited to sign VSpan because he knew this would be the situation?

I can see why you guys think VSpans TO's would go down with time on the court, but, perhaps JVG also knew from the beginning that this guy really can't shoot at a NBA level (now that is sad) and that his confidence would take the bruise of the reality that other teams will just force VSpan to shoot to beat the rockets just as they press Vspan when he has the ball.

Bottom line JVG is a better evaluator of talent than any of us, old or young, and if VSpan wants to stick in this league he better develop a consistent shot, low TO's and play defense- the same things that should be expected of every nba millionaire.

Hopefully, VSpan will atleast warrant something in a trade but I guarantee other GM's know whose worth it and whose not. The fact is VSpan is an inconsistent player on the court and obviously in practice. How maNY OF you can see JL3 owning VSpan in practice? I do and I bet JVG wishes he could switch their contracts now and ship VSpan for a useful player as soon as possible.

I AM A ROCKETS FAN BEFORE ANY PLAYER OR COACH--I think VSpan would be playing more and better if he was a hard worker....I may be wrong but no one here can prove that VSpan practices great and hard and is coachable---I blame VSpan before JVG so far on this argument.

 

WHy does there have to be blame assigned at this point?


Most, if not all Euro players, take some time to adjust.
Any serious observer of the game knows the fact is the NBA is much faster, much more athletic and jsut flat out a harder league to play in.

Every player will need that time to get used to it, and Span is no exception.
HE has his deficiencies, but it is obvious the talent level is there...all he has to do is work hard at his game and stay ready to contribute when called on.

IF VG hated him or didnt want him ...he would ride the end of the bench with ZERO minutes this year or be in the D-league.

When he gets used to his teammates and better understands the TEAM defense (he is a quality individual defender, but that isnt enough) that the ROckets use he will see more time.
His lack of outside shooting is slightly offset by his ability to penetrate that he has shown at times

I feel sometimes we as fans are too impatient and forget the long view..we sometimes forget that a rookie coming in and immediately contributing is much rarer than most think....it isnt every year we get a Sam or Cat who produces in their first season.

 

Don't expect much of V-Span for the rest of the season.

Snyder is about to return which is going to push Billy further down the bench line then he already is.. which was already last.

 

Good point Mordo, I should have said that this man said "Billy says he is pissed off and wondering why the Rockets even brought him over..." That is what he said, and it made it appear to me that he either knew him or had spoken to him....He mentioned other things such as Billy's mom was here and that his dad had died when Billy was young, other stuff like that which made his statement credible to me. I suppose I should have added that stuff as well. And no I don't think Greeks all look alike as I don't really know what any of them look like (okay at least two, but this is too small of a sample size!).

 

While I don't want to criticize as your post is generally positive. I will repeat Vspan's TO problem is greatly exxagerated on this board. He is probably making less TO's per 48 as of late than any other guard on the team. His problems early on were understanding the rules and adjusting to the speed of the game and as I expected he has adapted very well. Watch him the next and tell if you don't notice the improvement and can still disagree with me. I do agree however his shooting is a problem but he rarely looks for his shot first unless it is to drive to the basket or the clock is running out. He seems to always defer to the pass when available. Some more positive charecteristics. Also I believe is worst because of his lack of playing time and to some extent a slight loss of confidence. Which can easily remedied with regular playing time. Of course barring many injuries Vspan will become permanent bench fodder the rest of the season and soon may get his first look at the DL.

As for being a Rocket fan and criticizing the coach let me say I am a true Rocket fan who dislikes this coach and if this was my team would fire him. I don't deny his good defensive coaching but too many people on this board underestimate the talent on this team. The Rockets are winning as much because of that talent. Just as last year even with a healthy Yao back and a desperate need to win to make the playoffs Van Gundy couldn't coach a win for the life of him. He had an average team surrounding Yao and did a below average job of coaching. That is not the case this year and many coaches could win with the team the Rockets have now. Accolades should go to management as much if not moreso than to the coach. So let us not get carried away with thinking he is doing a stupendous job and lose sight of his lest than mediocre job with Yao and only average talent. He is a good coach with a terrible demeanor IMO. And their are more than a few coaches who could do at least as good if not better. Time for a change.

 

Of course you would blame Vspan before Jeff Van Daddy, your two sandwiches are full of Jeff Van SPAM!

Also JVG may be many things Defensive wizard disciplinarian, etc. but one thing he is not is a good judge of talent. His track record sucks in that area and the Rockets have only managed to assemble a decent team when they took the reigns of player decisions away from him. Most everyone knows that.

 

Old Man Rock, I did remember that Yao compared VSpan as a future Nash. I am curious why Yao said that......