Didn't Daryl Morey say high turnovers is a side effect of the run and gun style the Rockets play?

the problem is with the unforced careless turnovers. those need to be cut.

we can live with the other turnovers.

 

Not to nitpick all your work, but shouldn't per touch or per shot have some weight in there? Of course the players that take most of the shots will have a higher # of turnovers, right?

 

I don't think the actual number of turnovers is a reliable statistic. Rather the percentage of possessions that result in a turnover is much more realistic indicator of offensive efficiency.

Example being: If you have 20 more possessions than the average teams , it stands to reason that you will have a higher number of total turnovers.




Is that "per possession" information available ?!

 

I don't know where to find that listed, but it's pretty easy to calculate.

Rockets TOs
Per game: 16.57
Per Possession: .173
TOV%: 15.1

I'll use the Heat as a comparison.

Heat TOs
Per game: 14.72
Per Possession: .159
TOV%: 14.4
TOVs/game with pace normalized to match Rockets: 15.29

So if the Heat played at our pace (assuming they wouldn't incur a higher rate of TOVs as a result, which probably isn't realistic) they would produce 1.28 TOVs less than we do.

Honestly, I don't think it's that big of a deal. We've been sloppy the last couple games and need to get that in order, but our TOVs overall aren't hurting us anywhere near as much as most people think. Especially when you consider all the high percentage looks we get as the result of our aggressive play style.

 

A faster pace means more possessions which result in more turnover chances.

However, a fast pace isn't an excuse for bad decisions. Our players make too many bad decisions.

 

That means they're getting out and running. Where we thrive.

 

I calculated the R^2's of various pace-adjusted statistics with respect to pace-adjusted point-differential each game (NetRtg) and win/loss outcome. The intention is to describe the extent to which each of these stats explains point-differential or win/loss, respectively.

Code:

[B]STAT     r^2 wrt NetRtg     STAT      r^2 to Win/Loss[/b]
net_eFG%     69.01%         net_eFG%     49.39%
ORtg         43.31%         ORtg         33.28%
DRtg         40.00%         TS%          33.03%
off_eFG%     39.41%         off_eFG%     30.07%
TS%          37.64%         def_eFG%     21.58%
def_eFG%     32.48%         DRtg         20.42%
TRB%         21.68%         net_FT/FGA   14.76%
AST%         12.47%         TRB%         13.97%
BLK%         3.89%          off_FT/FGA   10.05%
net_FT/FGA   3.67%          FTr          7.05%
STL%         2.15%          BLK%         3.91%
off_FT/FGA   2.11%          net_TOV%     2.80%
Pace         1.83%          3PAr         2.63%
off_ORB%     1.60%          Pace         2.44%
net_ORB%     1.15%          off_ORB%     2.29%
def_FT/FGA   0.91%          def_FT/FGA   2.27%
FTr          0.64%          off_TOV%     2.13%
off_TOV%     0.54%          AST%         1.92%
def_TOV%     0.34%          def_TOV%     1.17%
3PAr         0.20%          STL%         0.47%
def_ORB%     0.18%          def_ORB%     0.40%
net_TOV%     0.01%          net_ORB%     0.33%

Looking at it this way, TOV's really don't seem to be a critical factor in explaining game outcomes for us.

 

TOV%. You can find it here.

http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/teamstats

I wrote the following on another thread, but it gives some context to the Rockets turnover issues

 

You keep referring to this quote. Please point to the exact words where Morey said the Rockets do not use set play?

 

We've taken quite a few mid range shots this season. Especially Harden.

So Morey is the real coach of this team.

 

The Miami Heat only average about 14 turnovers a game, they have been to 3 straight NBA championships and have won 2 straight NBA Championships using a very similar "Free Flowing" offense as the Rockets with very few set plays.

Maybe you should rethink your logic.

 

Im sorry, I disagree. Spoelstra has admited several times how he decided to changed the offense after losing the first finals against Dallas. They have implemented some set plays. Not to mention how disciplined the team is defensively, but well, we're speaking about offense here.

Still, it should not be necessary to stablish comparisons... Every team is different, it has different resources. I think we could dramatically improve our offense against elite defense by adding some sets to facilitate reception and promove defensive movement. I don't think that's a revolutionary idea and I dont even think it's necessary to bring advanced stats here, it is something readily ascertainable by watching the games, and paying attention to those moments. Ive been all season expecting and hoping for a change when games are tied, the game is played at positional offense and defenses get hardened. And then, when it counts, you dont see any set plays executed by the Rockets.

 

There's no point in arguing with jtr, its like arguing with a troll version of dawsons creek.

 

I just want to say my least favorite turnovers are when Dwight grabs the rebound, and everybody starts running, so Dwight tries to do a quick outlet pass and it goes to the other team. I feel like this happens once a game and its maddening.

 

These are the turnovers that kill us:
- the Howard back down for 5 seconds then turns it over after getting ball poked away or double teamed or fails a skip pass.
- the Harden dribble out the clock and last second hot potato pass to teammate or the 2 a game brain fart opponent outlet random pass, or where he gets hit on the face and collapses.
- all of Lin's turnovers. Seriously, turnovers are bad but his are the worst kind.

 

Morey didn't say that play calls are bad, people aren't reading what he said, let me bold it for you

Seems that it did, the following year he replaced him.

 

Actually the Rockets trail the league by a very wide margin in number of mid-ranged shots. LMA by himself has taken more mid-ranged shots than the entire Houston team.

Morey is responsible for strategy. McHale for managing players. Each plays to his strength.

 

Morey went from an old school coach to a R&R coach. That was not sufficient so he went with McHale. I find it amusing when people clamor for JVG, SVG, Sloan, Adelman (who has so far been a disaster in Minny). As long as Morey is the GM those coaches will never head the Rockets.